Drop….

One of my favorite things to do is break down bad teams and analyze what it would take to get them to the top.  So here we go with the NBA-projected Lottery teams, but there are only seven teams that are sufficiently out of contention at this point.  Let’s start with the bottom 3:

Washington Wizards

Let’s get this out of the way: last season was a one-trick pony.  This team cannot contend without Arenas.  It just won’t happen.  His explosion at the rim creates space in the defense for so many of the team’s other players (most notably DeShawn Stevenson and Darius Songalia, two players who rely on their outside catch-and-shoot ability).  Furthermore, Caron Butler is the only player who improves offensively without Arenas, and as great as Tough Juice is – he cannot carry this team on his own.  And he looks dis-interested this season, settling for 30-foot jumpers (when he is in fact a 30.9% long-range shooter), instead of bullying his way to the rim as he has in the past.  His rebounding and defense have dipped as he’s had to take on more of a role in the offense, and with Stevenson struggling, Butler’s the only solid defender currently getting big minutes.  But I’m not going to blame the entire struggles of this team on the absence of Arenas, there are other factors here.  First, Eddie Jordan was a great coach and the team seemed to give up after he was fired.  While it is true they started 1-10, it should also be noted that he has helped this team overachieve for years on his watch.  Also, the team lost ace sixth-man Roger Mason in free agency.  His void has not been filled.  Two casual signings – Juan Dixon and Mike James – have not worked out, and Nick Young is still yet to harvest any of his incredible talent for long stretches of gametime.  And with Etan Thomas and Brandan Haywood out, this was supposed to be an opportunity for the young bigs to step up.  And while JaVale McGee looks like a future stud, he’s still incredibly raw.  And Andray Blatche has been even more sporadic than before, and essentially looks like a bust most of the time.

With the team struggling as badly as they are, there appears no reason to rush Arenas back.  Though it might be time to be begin thinking of other options in case he never does recover fully.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see suspicious injuries sideline Butler and Jamison for long periods of time as well.  It’s time to see what the kids have.  The feeling here is Young is going to be no better than a role player in the pure-scoring mode, Blatche is probably not worth keeping around, but McGee is the guy to really build around.  Haywood is the only player on the team’s roster that should even fight with him for minutes.  Thomas and Blatche are both too sporadic.  And the Wiz should take a nice long look at Javaris Crittenton while he’s still young enough to fetch something decent in a trade.  Six-Five point guards with his handles don’t come around everyday, and they should decide if he’s good enough to back up Arenas at the point.

While eventual replacements for Butler and Jamison are going to be needed at some point, I think the team needs to draft a pure 2 to push Stevenson for playing time, and eventually take over for him.  Stevenson is useful on offense when there’s some penetration and post game to make room for his shooting, but is utterly useless the way the offense is currently running.  Basically, without Arenas there’s no reason to give Stevenson big minutes.  Arizona State’s James Harden would be perfect for this team.  Or if they get the top pick, it’d sure be nice to slide Blake Griffin next to McGee.  And if they can ever get Arenas healthy again, adding him to this roster next season might be enough to shoot this team into the upper hierarchy of the Eastern Conference.  Don’t forget that the last time they had Arenas, Butler and Jamison all healthy, this team had the best record in the East (although that was almost 2 years ago).  However if the offseason signs point to more missed time for Arenas, it might be time to blow this team up.

Sacramento Kings

There’s been a lot of coverage about the struggle of my Kings, who look like the second worst team in the NBA at this point.  Nevertheless, they have plenty of reasons to be excited about the future.  First is Kevin Martin, the kid is putting up superstar numbers – and no one passes him the ball!  John Salmons has had a breakout season, but he’s probably not going to be with the team past the trading deadline.  Brad Miller was a key part of this team staying in the race last season, with his passing (particularly to K-Mart) and hustle.  But this season he just looks bored.  The team needs to trade him as soon as possible.  It’s a catch-22, because the team needs to play him to show teams that he’s healthy, but he’s playing such uninspired ball that the team’s playing worse with him.  Especially since they’d be a lot better off just playing promising C Spencer Hawes anyway.  And the kid Jason Thompson looks like a keeper at the four-spot.  Donte Greene has all the talent in the world at SF, but he’s a known headcase (there are whispers around Syracuse that the program is better off having seen him leave early), and is incredibly raw.  With Salmons gone, most of those minutes will probably go to super-sub Francisco Garcia.  Beno Udrih is not good enough to be a starter at the point.  Last year appears to have been a mirage and this kid needs to sit.  I think the Kings would be best off drafting a point guard, Wake Forest’s Jeff Teague seems like the ideal fit.  He’s a quick PG who shoots, gets to the rim, and plays good D.  He’s gonna single-handedly get that team to the Final 4.  The CP3 comparisons are going to be inevitable.  But this kid has a jumpshot.  He could be that top gun and would team up nicely with K-Mart to form one of the league’s best back-courts in the league.

Oklahoma City Thunder

This team is a step ahead of most of the bad teams in the league in that, they already have a nucleus of stars.  They just don’t have anything else.  Case in point: they are giving starters minutes to Earl Watson, who has been in the top 5 worst players in the league for 5 years running.   Russell Westbrook was drafted as a point, but seems to be best suited as a combo guard working off the ball.  But he’s really good.  He might be better than Kevin Durant, the franchise’s face who is playing at an all-star level himself.  And Jeff Green is the consummate professional; scoring, playing rugged D, and keeping the ball moving.  But seriously, after those three there are maybe three other legit NBA-level players on this team.  So you could pretty much draft anyone and improve this team.  Blake Griffin probably fits the biggest need on this team.  The best player in college basketball would fit the bigs need on this team very handidly.

All-Stars

This year’s all-star picks are going to be more statistical, courtesy of my two favorite stats: 82games.com’s Roland Rating and ESPN’s J0hn Hollinger’s PER Rating.

Let’s Start with the West Guards:

Off the top of my head I’d probably go with Chris Paul, K.O.B.E., Ginobili, Chauncey Billups, and *duh-duh* Brandon Roy.  Let’s see what the stats guys say. These are all the players who rank out of the top 50 of each:

Top West Guards by PER:

1. Chris Paul  – 30.2 PER
2. Kobe Bryant – 24.95 PER
3. Brandon Roy – 24.6 PER
4. Tony Parker – 22.91 PER
5. Manu Ginobili – 21.91 PER
6. Chauncey Billups – 20.42 PER
7. Jason Terry – 19.98 PER
8. Kevin Martin – 18.80 PER
9. Steve Nash – 18.38 PER

Ok so we can delete K-Mart since he’s missed more than half of the season.  So far, I see nothing that makes me change my opinion.  I still give Billups and Ginobili over Parker just because Ginobili seems like the best player on that team and Billups has been so important to the Nuggets’ turnaround.  Let’s check the 82games:

1. Paul – 20.1
2. Roy – 11.4
3. Bryant – 11.2
4. Nash – 8.1
5. Ginobili – 7.5
6. Terry – 6.4
7. Billups – 5.7
8. Parker – 4.7
9. Martin – 4.5

So we have the same 9 guys in a different order. I think it’s pretty safe to call Paul and Bryant the starters and give Roy the first bench spot. Then the debate gets interesting. One thing that stands out to me at the moment is that Ginobili, despite being the Spurs’ best player, has only played 37% of the team’s minutes. I think this calls for him to be thrown out with Martin’s injury problems. So we’re down to Nash, Terry, Billups, and Parker fighting for 2 spots.

Nash – 18.38 PER + 8.1 Roland = 26.48 Total
Terry – 19.98 PER + 6.4 Roland = 26.2 Total
Billups – 20.42 PER + 5.7 Roland = 26.17 Total
Parker – 22.91 PER + 4.7 Roland = 27.61 Total

If you want to get too technical, Parker and Nash should go, but their stats are essentially identical, so we’re going with the two players on better teams: Billups and Parker.  Sorry Nash and Terry, maybe next year when your teams are better. As for who is actually going to make it, T-Mac is leading CP3 for the second spot so that pushes everyone down a notch. My feeling is the Spurs get spurned again and CP3, Roy, Nash, and Billups probably make it – with Billups going as an injury replacement for T-Mac. I don’t see Terry going, so if anyone else gets hurt we’re probably seeing Ginobili.

Now to the West Forwards:

PER:

1.Carlos Boozer – 24.77

1. Tim Duncan – 24.46
2. Dirk Nowitzki – 24.01
3. Al Jefferson – 22.38
4. Amare Stoudemire – 22.26
5. Pau Gasol – 21.76
6. Paul Millsap – 20.65
7. Zach Randolph – 19.57
8. Kevin Durant – 19.39
9. Andrei Kirilenko – 19.16
10. Brendan Wright – 19.08
11. Nene – 19.04
12. LaMarcus Aldridge – 18.36
13. David West – 18.60

One curious note about this list: No Carmelo Anthony. Now to the Roland ratings:

1. Kirilenko – 11.2
2. Nowitzki – 10.9
3. West – 9.2
4. Millsap – 7.5
5. Stoudemire – 7.4
6. Lamar Odom – 7.0
7.Aldridge – 6.9
8. Duncan – 6.7
9. Nene – 5.9
10. Hakim Warrick – 5.9
11. Anthony – 5.7
12. Jefferson – 5.4
13. Ron Artest – 4.6

A couple of things strike me here, first that Duncan and Jefferson are so low on the Roland Ratings. Also, I would’ve never guessed D-West to be so high. Also, this re-inforces my point that Kirilenko should be an all-star. But to sum things up, Nowitzki and Stoudemire deserve to be your starters. And while neither of them will end up there, they both should make the all-star game pretty handidly, so that’s nice. Filling the bench is a bit more of a stretch. Millsap actually looks the best of the rest with Kirilenko and Duncan right after him. So those are your deserving All-Stars: Nowizki, Stoudemire, Millsap, Kirilenko, and Duncan. We’ll go with David West as the sixth in case of injury. However I think Gasol actually gets the call, since the Lakers have been so good and he has the next best stats. Millsap and Kirilenko probably don’t make it, but Carmelo’s actually going to start or make it strictly off his name so D-West stays the alternate again.

The center position isn’t much of a question. Yao Ming is 2.3 Roland points ahead of Camby and 3.3 ahead of Shaq, though Shaq does beat him by .52 in PER. Camby is more than 2 points behind both in PER. So Yao will probably go and no one else, but both Shaq and Camby are more than deserving if either of them make it as reserves, since Yao is always voted as the starter. Unfortunately, Shaq’s Suns are in 7th in the West and are not likely to get three all-stars if Nash goes and if the coaches have to choose between Shaq and Nash it’s probably Nash at this point. And Camby’s team is so terrible he’s not likely to be rewarded.

But just to make things fun we have West, Shaq, Camby, Terry, Nash, and let’s throw Al Jefferson in there as guys right below the all-stars competing for our 12th roster spot.

Terry – 19.98 PER + 6.4 Roland = 26.2 Total
Nash – 18.38 PER + 8.1 Roland = 26.48 Total
Shaq – 23.56 PER + 6.8 Roland = 30.36 Total
Camby – 20.89 PER + 7.8 Roland = 28.69 Total
Jefferson – 22.38 PER + 5.4 Roland = 27.78 Total
West – 18.6 PER + 9.2 Roland = 27.8 Total

As you can see, Shaq wins this pretty handidly. Camby comes in a close second and becomes the first alternate with Nash as the guard alternate – we’ll even say that David West is the third alternate.

So here is our Western Conference All-Stars (starters in bold):

G Chris Paul, NOH
G Kobe Bryant, LAL
F Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
F Amare Stoudemire, PHO
C Yao Ming, HOU
G Brandon Roy, POR
G Chauncey Billups, DEN
G Tony Parker
F Tim Duncan, SAS
F Andrei Kirilenko
F Paul Millsap
C Shaquille O’Neal

In reality, the All-stars will look like this:
G Kobe Bryant
G Tracy McGrady
G Chris Paul
F Tim Duncan
F Carmelo Anthony
C Yao Ming
G Brandon Roy
G Steve Nash
G Chauncey Billups
F Amare Stoudemire
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Pau Gasol
C Shaquille O’Neal

To the East we go, starting with the Guards.  These are our PER stats:

1. Dwayne Wade – 28.87
2. Devin Harris – 23.63
3. Jameer Nelson – 21.15
4. Vince Carter – 20.82
5. Joe Johnson – 19.05
6. Mike Bibby – 18.94
7. Michael Redd – 18.94
7. Rajon Rondo – 18.9
8. Jose Calderon – 18.94
9. Andre Miller – 18.25

Yes this is correct, Harris and Nelson are 2 & 3, deservedly so.

Roland Ratings:
1. Wade 19.5
2. Ray Allen 11.2
3. Johnson 8.9
4. Nelson 8.6
5. Redd 8.0
5. Carter 6.8
6. Delonte West 6.5
7. Rondo 5.7
8. Harris 5.6
9. Ramon Sessions 4.8

Wade is the easy pick as the first starter. The real surprise is Nelson as his backcourt mate. After that it’s a pretty tight race with Allen, Johnson, Vince-sanity, Rondo, and Harris. Three of the five can make it, two will get left out. Let’s take a look at the race:

Allen – 17.66 PER + 11.2 Roland = 28.86
Johnson – 19.05 + 8.9 = 28.95
Carter – 20.82 + 6.8 = 27.62
Rondo – 18.9 + 5.7 = 24.6
Harris – 23.63 + 5.6 = 29.23

So Rondo clearly is eliminated, but after that it looks like the last man out is Carter. Not bad, since Harris has been a little better than him and the Nets don’t deserve to have two all-stars. So Wade and Nelson are our starters with Harris, Allen and Johnson as his backups. But the difference between Nelson and Harris is so small that it could change after any game. I think AI is going to win the second starting spot which pushes everyone down a spot, eliminating Allen. Nelson and Harris should be quite a nice story going into this game.

The Eastern Forwards’ PER:
1. Lebron James – 31.59
2. Chris Bosh – 23.38
3. Danny Granger – 22.16
4. Kevin Garnett – 21.25
5. Marreese Spreights – 20.44
6. Antawn Jamison – 20.38
7. Andre Iguodala – 18.4
8. Caron Butler – 18.24

And on the Roland side;

1. James 24.2
2. Iguodala 10.2
3. Granger 10.2
4. Garnett 10.1
5. Bosh 8.3
6. Rashard Lewis 8.0
7. Hedo Turkoglu 4.9
8. Paul Pierce 4.6

So here our top 5 is pretty clear cut. The only question is, after James who starts?

Let’s look at the numbers:
Bosh – 23.38 + 8.3 = 32.18
Granger – 22.16 + 10.2 = 32.36
Garnett – 21.25 + 10.1 = 31.35
Iguodala – 18.4 + 10.2 = 28.6

So by a nose, Granger starts and we start two tweener-small forwards. With Bosh, Garnett, and Iggs backing them up. Now for the actual team I’d probably have to say Pierce makes it and Iguodala gets pushed off as an alternate.

Which leads us to…

Dwight Howard is the center. No question. Big Z is a clear-cut #2 as well. But I think for the actual game, Iggy gets his roster spot. Plus Z is hurt anyway.

Our Deserving Eastern Conference All Stars (Starters in Bold):
G Dwayne Wade, MIA
G Jameer Nelson, ORL
F Lebron James, CLE
F Danny Granger, IND
C Dwight Howard, ORL
G Devin Harris, NJN
G Ray Allen, BOS
G Joe Johnson, ATL
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
F Chris Bosh, TOR
F Andre Iguodala, PHI
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE

And the team that will likely make it:

G Allen Iverson, DET
G Dwayne Wade, MIA
F Lebron James, CLE
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
C Dwight Howard, ORL
G Jameer Nelson, ORL
G Devin Harris, NJN
G Joe Johnson, ATL
F Paul Pierce, BOS
F Chris Bosh, TOR
F Danny Granger, IND
F Andre Iguodala, PHI

Snubs:
So here we go with whose going to get snubbed. The two Jazz potential All-Stars are going to be spurned by the more popular Gasol and Anthony, while T-Mac’s winning the West Vote won’t probably mean much as he looks like he’ll miss the game anyway. In the East, Pierce essentially cancels out Allen, and Iverson takes Z’s spot. Not too much to complain about, though I’d bet Jerry Sloan’ll be pissed. What’s impressive is Millsap and Terry’s success as reserves.

Emeritus

‘Face is one of the illest to ever do it.  Lyrically, folks sleep all the time.  But he was the first Southern rapper on a Primo beat (sorry Luda, see Gangstarr’s “Betrayal” from 1998).  But at the end of ‘08, he had to show everyone just how to do it on “Can’t Get Right” :

These are the last days, settle in
Look at the turmoil our kids left the ghetto in
They bustin metal and, ain’t got remorse for the innocent
It’s just another nigga in the morgue
My momma’s pregnant with a son she should abort
Cause she ain’t knowin what I’m finna to be facin is nothin short
of a, racially motivated killin cause them boys
see a nigga as only a third of a human,
Every time I see a cracker with a badge, I’m alarmed
Cause I’m knowin how he feel, and I’m just bein real
I don’t hate and I don’t preach it ain’t no motherfuckin secret
We ain’t first class citizens, and we ain’t second either
Need to, get up and get out, and cut that bullshit out
Nigga get yo’ own you strugglin at this bitch house
The lack of makin money make a motherfucker bend
If you’d rather me than you die in the end, again and again

‘Face paints a picture of today’s economically-depressed society better than Jeezy could at any one point on The Recession, and better than anyone else even attempted to do.  ‘Face’s best attribute is his ability to paint vivid pictures, whether its’ society or a story he’s kickin.  He speaks on today’s children shooting each other without remorse, moving into the society that creates such a monster.  The cops that see black folks as a third of a human and the internal racism that they live with lead tho his progression of how cats need to depend on themselves financially in order to break the cycle.

I lay in bed lookin up at the ceiling
as the fan turns in a circle, thinkin ’bout my evil
CNN on my TV, bombs in the skies
over Baghdad they fight but they don’t know why
What they said about Hussein, was a God damn lie
Raised a war against a religion for oil, don’t lie
I seen, kids from the hood livin like they gon’ die
with the mindset of be broke so let’s go get high
With the people livin so crazy how we gon’ get by
Gasoline five dolars, how the fuck we gon’ drive?
Can’t afford to fill our prescriptions so we all gon’ die
CVS is slangin dope on every block worldwide
Since, Pfizerman had the dope game on fine
Then it’s only right for one nigga to go get mine huh
If they injured how they gon’ survive?
If they stuck at the bottom how the fuck they gon’ ride?

He takes a deeper look at the society around us in his second verse.  We picture him watching CNN and all the craziness that’s going on in the world from dropping bombs on Baghdad for no real reason to George Bush’s real reason for the “War Against Terrorism.”  He moves into the access of folks to drugs.  The pharmaceutical companies like Pfizerman selling product at places like CVS justify sellin dope on their own.

Ain’t life a muh’fucker, first you think you got it, then it
all falls apart in front your eyes, try to stop it, but it’s
part of the plan that was written by the man
Got me down on my knees and my hands, prayin
Forgive me Lord, thank the Lord I’m alive
Cause I’m knowin deep down I coulda died
I shed so many tears lost so many peers
In the grave or the penitentiary facin 20 years
Pourin beers on the corner, cause Frankie told me out in California
I was high livin blind to the fact that they sold us out
America the Beautiful, there’s a funeral
on every day of the month, tryin to get our knees up
Huh, it’s another chance under these circumstances
My people ain’t advancin, but if we pray
Maybe we’ll get to live our life in the sun
’stead of livin on the blocks dyin young, here I come

‘Face is so out of everyone’s league on this track, it’s amazing.  We say that Jay-Z and Nas are chasing ghosts in comparing them to Pac and Big, but the only rappers who could’ve matched ‘Face’s lyrical velocity on this track are Nas and ‘Pac.  And Nas probably doesn’t rap with the emotion to match this track.  Some folks like to compare ‘Pac to Nas or T.I., but lyrically ‘Face is the closest and has always been.  They try to out-do each other on “Smile” but come out pretty evenly when all is said and done.