“….Pleeeeeeeeeeeease….Let The Dollar Circulate”

The Sub-Plot For the 2009 season in baseball will be the recession

The Haves and have-nots in baseball will become even more exaggerated in 2009. On one side of the coin, the Yankees and Mets have rolled out $2 billion worth of new stadium. On the other hand, the A’s have the most out-dated current stadium with both Florida teams passing for new stadiums (though in both of their cases, i’ll believe it when i see it).

Money will affect everyone, as we saw with big-name free agents not receiving the sort of contracts they were expecting. With that in mind, let’s look through the 2009 Baseball season:

30. San Diego Padres
The Pads still have the same holes as before. It’s nice that Giles and Gonzalez are still there, and Peavy. But after those 3, what do they really have? David Eckstein is probably the next name on the team that would come across to you. But with the Giants getting better, the Dodgers and D-Backs should both still be good, the NL West looks very competitive going into this year. And the Pads just don’t have the horses to keep up.

29. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates should be juuust good enough to be better than the Pads. But they don’t have any pitching, and sporadic hitting. After McLouth, who can you trust in this lineup? Freddy Sanchez had one good season two years ago, LaRoche is a great prospect but unproven in the bigs. Same with Moss and Wilson. The biggest thing with the Pirates is, can anyone teach this team to win?

28. Seattle Mariners
Yes, they play in a weak division, but they’re still far behind the rest of the pack. Especially after this offseason’s firesale. Bringing back Griff was a nice story, but I don’t see much translation into results. The front-end of that rotation is very strong with King Felix and Bedard, but they have no hitting and a pretty weak back end of the rotation. And they just traded their closer. And now Ichiro’s hurt. There’s some young talent on this team, but it might be a while before it develops.

27. Washington Nationals
A lot of people have them improving this year. But that division is really tough, and it’s only going to get better. The Phills won the whole thing, the Mets and Braves got better, and Florida’s stars are just getting better. Still they do have Christian Guzman, Lastings Milledge, Adam Dunn, and Ryan Zimmerman in that lineup. If the pitching comes up they could surprise a couple people. But they’re not going anywhere in that division.

26. Toronto Blue Jays
Everyone is expecting a firesale at mid-season from these guys. Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and even Roy Halladay are supposedly going to be available if the team has another bad year. And in the toughest division in baseball, they just don’t have the talent to compete.  The Yanks, Sox, and Rays are the cream of the league.  And the O’s are getting much better.  The Jays just lost their second best pitcher (AJ Burnett) and weren’t too good last year.  It’s going to be a long yearn in the T.dot.

25. Cincinnati Reds
It’s only a matter of time before these guys make a real run at the Central. But I don’t think this is the year. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto look very good. So does Brandon Phillips. And Ramon Hernandez will do wonders for that young staff. But after Harang and Volquez, the talent is questionable. When some other young kids start to develop, they will be a force. But it’s not their time yet. Just yet.

24. Colorado Rockies
They were an average team last year, and lost a top 10 hitter in the league. Ubaldo Jimenez looks for real, but what else do they have on that staff? Troy Tulowitzki is an absolute stud, but he’ll probably even see his numbers drop without Holliday in the order to protect him. I see this as a looong season in Colorado, though I like to see all the A’s castoffs.

23. Detroit Tigers
I don’t really feel right putting them here. But it’s hard to predict they’ll be much better than last year. Their bullpen is suddenly very suspect and Maggs suddenly is starting to fall off. There’s also a lot of talent in the rotation, but just as many ifs. “If” Verlander can get back on track, and “if” Galarraga is ready, and “if” Jackson can adjust to his move higher in the rotation, this could be a very good pitching staff. But as I learned with last year’s A’s, “if”‘s aren’t good to bank on.

22. Chicago White Sox
I’m not sure what Ozzie’s doing here. The sox still have a meaty middle of the order with Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, and Jermaine Dye. The rest of the team looks not so good. I’m not sold on Danks and Floyd. Buehrle’s on his way down, so are Konerko and Thome. Jenks has always been iffy. But at least Colon seems like he might return to form. The AL Central will be a three-team race, but the Sox won’t be in it.

21. Milwaukee Brewers
Last year’s postseason darlings return minus their top 2 pitchers. Personally, I don’t like this strategy, considering their pitching wasn’t particularly good after CC and Sheets. But this lineup is still loaded, and that should win them enough games to avoid the cellar. Maybe I’m overstating pitching, when Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Ricky Weeks, Corey Hart, and JJ Hardy is one helluva dangerous lineup. But this is a really bad pitching staff. Really bad.

20. Texas Rangers
They are the Brewers-AL. They have a huge batting lineup with Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, and Hank Blalock (though they did lose Milton Bradley), but really no pitching to speak of. I also think Hamilton will go down a bit, and Young and Kinsler already were. They are going to have some trouble making the AL West a three team race. I predict the Rangers will have enough 14-5 games to make you think they’re competitors. But such would be a foolish proposition.

19. San Francisco Giants
What’s the opposite of the Rangers and Brewers? The SF Giants. They have, really, 5 stud pitchers. They also have a lot of solid hitters, but no greats. Emanuel Burress, Pablo Sandoval, and Fred Lewis could be great down the line, but are very young and inconsistent at the moment. Leading me to believe they’ll only be as good as the young hitters. Which would make them inconsistent.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks
The pitching here is not quite as loaded as in SF. But the hitting is a little more timely. Plus I like the addition of Garland to the back of that rotation. I’m also betting on a huge year from Justin Upton. He saw his bro on the big stage and wants a piece of the action. Behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, they have a shot. But I’m not too confident.

17. Atlanta Braves
I think these guys stay competitive in the division, even taking the lead for a while, for most of the year. But in the end, i think they fall short. Chipper, McCann, and Franceour certainly have the power, but I think they lack the bottom of the order/rotation depth to stay in the race. If any of those three or Derek Lowe get hurt, they’re done. And with those four players, the injury bug is inevitable.

16. Baltimore Orioles
This division is so good, the fourth best team is still among the top half of the league. Everyone on this team is young, and they’re starting to come into their own. Adam Jones in particular looks like a monster. And Markakis, Roberts, and Huff will help provide enough offense to stay competitive. How competitive remains to be seen. Especially in a division with 3 legit title contenders.

15. Houston Astros
To me, this is the hardest team to place. On one hand, that offense looks loaded. Berkman, Tejada, Lee, Bourn, Pence & a motivated Pudge? But after the ever-great Roy Oswalt, the rotation looks shaky. But I like this team as a sleeper pick. Sort of like the Braves and O’s above them. They’ll look good for most of the year, but will fall short in the end of being true contenders.

14. Kansas City Royals
Some of yall are sayin “whaaaaaaaaaat??!!” right now. Lots of good young talent here. Jacobs, Dejesus, Gordon. Greinke, Davies, Ramirez round out a talented young staff. They might be third in the division, but they will be a solid team. Watch out league.

13. Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles
Call me a homer all you like, but I think the Angels are in some trouble this year. K-Rod? Gone. Texiera? Gone. Garrett Anderson? Gone. Lackey? Hurt. Santana? Hurt. Escobar? Hurt. Vlad? on his way down. Abreu? On his way down. Joe Saunders is still solid, but how’s the rotation after that? What about the bullpen? Questionmarks surround this team. Even moreso than the A’s. Which is why I pick the A’s to win the division. Ok there. I said it. You’ll see my reasons later.

12. Florida Marlins
The Marlins were that team last year that stayed in the race most of the year but ended up on the wrong end at the finish. This year, I’d expect them to get a little better. But because the Phills and Mets are both looking better, the Marlins’ improvement isn’t likely to show up in the standings. The lineup is set, they’re just waiting on the young staff to catch up. Annibal Sanchez looked especially nasty at times last year. Nolasco’s quite good too. And Hanley Ramirez is a stud.

11. Minnesota Twins
If Francisco Liriano is as dominating as he was a couple of years ago watch out. They could easily win the division. But the bet here is that he’s sporadic. Although the Mauer/Morneau injuries bug me, I still think this is a very good team. If Gomez, Cuddyer and Nathan all play up to par, they should be in this race until the end. The Twins never cease to amaze.

10. Oakland A’s
A lot of people haven’t actually seen how good these kids in Oakland’s rotation are. While it might sound like I’m setting the bar a bit high, I fully expect Brett Anderson to be near-dominant right out of the gate. I think Cahill will start to come on more towards the end of the season, when he gets called back (he’s starting in the rotation mainly as a placeholder until Duke is healthy). Plus, did I mention they have a lot of guys who can hit now? Holliday, Giambi, Eric Chavez looks good, Cust, Cabrera, Nomar, etc. This is going to be a very solid ball club.

9. Cleveland Indians
I think they win the Central. I think Cliff Lee plays a little worse, but everyone else plays much better. I see Carmona and Pavano coming back into form and those young bats getting better production from Hafner Shin Soo Cho, Peralta, Cabrera, and a recovered Victor Martinez. You know you have a very good outfield when Ryan Garko can’t even break into the starting lineup. I think they win the Central, but ultimately lose in the ALDS to the Wild Card team.

8. New York Yankees
I think the Yanks give it a run. They’re much better this year, even with A-Rod hurt. But in the end, the A-rod injury is going to be too much to handle against the Red Sox and Rays. For one, the team’s strength is now the starting rotation with CC, Burnett, Wang, Pettite and Joba. But the bullpen is questionable and the lack of sluggers is alarming (especially for the Yanks). I like the Yanks, but not in that division.

7. New York Mets
I think the Mets fixed one hole only to create another. Yes the bullpen is much improved with K-Rod and Putz. But the rotation after Johan is questionable at best. We all know they can hit. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado are all capable all-stars. But when Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez are your 2 & 3 starters, you might be in trouble. Just as the Giants won’t be able to win every game 1-0, the Mets will have trouble winning every game 15-10.

6. St. Louis Cardinals
I see a big bounce-back year for the Cards. In particular I see them getting healthy for once and grabbing the wild card from the Mets at the last moment. If Wainwright and Carpenter can stay healthy, they will be among the best in the league. They are solid 1-9 with a budding star in Ankiel and the best hitter in baseball in Pujols. They are my top sleeper pick for this year because the talent is there. But everyone has to stay healthy.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers
The real LA team re-signed Manny and Furcal. They also went out and grabbed Hudson. They look solid at every position with a true superstar in Manny and a great leadoff guy in Furcal. Billingsley and Kershaw looked better as the year went on, and I’d expect them to improve this year. The Dodgers are very good. But I don’t see them getting out of the NLDS, because the NL has suddenly gotten very good.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
I see the Rays grabbing the wildcard and returning to the ALCS, where they have revenge extracted upon them. Nevertheless they are very good. The crazy thing about their run last year is that most of these guys have more upside. They weren’t just playing over their heads. Evan Longoria will have a full year this time. They added a much needed DH in Pat Burrell. BJ Upton became a sueprstar last year, and he hit more homers in the postseason than the regular season. They still have that stud-laden pitching staff 1-4, with David Price just waiting to grab the fifth spot. These guys were no one year wonder, they’ll be back in the middle of things this year.

3. Chicago Cubs
Adding Milton Bradley is like making a one year investment. It’s basically saying “we want to win it all this year and don’t care about next year.” Well unfortunately, I see the Cubs falling in the NLCS this season. That bullpen just looks suspect to me. But wow, that’s a lineup. Adding Bradley to a lineup with Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto, and Alfonso Soriano. Again, Wow. And as I’ve mentioned many times, when healthy Rich Harden is the best pitcher in baseball. They also have Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster. Anything less than a title will be a disappointment. Well, I’m sorry to leave you disappointed Cubs fans.

2. Boston Red Sox
Think about this, the Sox rotation goes like this: Josh Becket, Jon Lester, DiceK, John Smoltz. This team is so loaded, Brad Penny is the long reliever. You have two (maybe 3) legit Cy Young candidates, a future hall of famer…..wow. I would say some of the older sluggers could use replacements like Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, and Varitek, but those guys are all still very quality hitters when in there. Plus, they even have very solid backups. That bullpen is still scary as well. It’s going to be tough to beat them, but one team can do it…..

1. Philadelphia Phillies
We know that they have superstars in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. We know that they have budding stars in Jason Werth, Shane Victorino, and Carlos Ruiz. We know that Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge are out of this world. We also know that Myers/Blanton/Moyer is as solid 2-4 as anyone. We also know Chris Coste and Greg Dobbs would start for most teams, maybe even in the middle of the lineup. We also know their bullpen is solid and that they’ll get good contributions from Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz. I like them to repeat. But what you might not know is just how funny Jimmy Rollins is:

My Five Favorite Jimmy Rollins YouTube Clips
5. Teaching Mike Lieberthal how to dance
4. The Sportscenter Training clip
3. The Dicks Sporting Goods Ad
2. Charlie Manuel bobblehead doll
1. His Ricky Henderson imitation

 

My name is Windy…and i like to blow trees…

With all the Atlanta dick-riding going on, it made me think of what other cities are relevant in hip hop today. Miami is makin some noise, obviously NYC is the mecca, but I think the next top city is Chicago, Illinois – and not just because our president reps it.

What it does have is most everything Atlanta has. It’s a city whose name was kept alive for over a decade by a superstar R&B singer. Atlanta has Usher, Chicago has Kellz. It’s a city that features one of the 3 mainstream-relevant rapers right now. ATL has Tip, Chicago has Kanyeezy. The only other mainstream-relevant rapper is a guy from New Orleans (which had its’ own time) who now lives in Miami, and is part of that movement there. It has secondary stars as well. ATL has Jeezy and Luda. Chi-town has Common and Lupe. But oh yeah, Chicago is a much bigger city. And that Obama guy reps it. Dwayne Wade and Derrick Rose? Yep, them too.

As far as professional sports go, Chicago’s a mixed back. The Cubs are good every year, but not great. The White Sox won a title a couple of years ago, but I wonder how far they can ride Carlos Quentin this year. The Bears aren’t too good, and the Bulls are lookin like they’re gonna grab either the 7th or 8th spot in the NBA playoffs.

But its all about hip hop in the Chi. Even beyond the holy trinity of Kanye, Common and Lupe, there’s Twista, Rhymefest is ill, and there’s the 90’s staples Do Or Die on the underground and Da Brat on the radio.

But it’s not just that Kanye, Common, and Lupe are dope. It’s not just that Twista and ‘Fest can rhyme. It’s the conscious underbelly of all five emcees’ material. All five of them are more righteous than club-hoppers. Kanye’s greatest asset as an emcee is the soul and spirit with which he makes his most emotional material. Think the uplifting joy of “Family Business” or “Good Life,” the despair of “Roses” or “Heartless,” or the anger and frustration of “Crack Music” or “Two Words.” Common is similarly soulful, dating back to his “I Used To Love her” days. Like Kanye, he makes music about love, pain, joy, and struggle. Lupe is another range. He likewise rhymes about conscious themes, but has been an even bigger inspiration to the current fad of “hipster” rappers out there. ‘Fest falls somewhere in between Kanye and Lupe. Meanwhile there’s Twista, the underground legend/multi-platinum rapper. He crosses the line between gangsta and righteous as well as anyone.

While there are more dope rappers on the underground tip, the mainstream ones line up with just about any area. Especially when you throw the R&B singers like R. Kelly and Donell Jones in there. Altogether, it’s about time Chicago started getting its’ props!

 

And Down The Stretch They Come…

The baseball season is over in 13 days, and only one playoff spot has been clinched.  The hated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim clinched the AL West sometime last season (or so it seems).  In fact, the lack of important games seemed to have caused the team to slide a bit, but they’ve recently righted the ship with a 5-game winning streak.  We’ll get to them in a bit.  First let’s get to the races:

The AL East and Wild Card spots look like they will go to the D-Rays and Red Sox in some order.  Technically, the Blue Jays and Yankees are both in both races and the Twins could catch the Wild Card.  But the Red Sox, who currently hold the Wild Card, are 6.5 games up on the next place Twins, and it would take a monumental collapse (something on par with last year’s Mets) for any of those 3 teams to catch Tampa or Boston.  The Sox go to Tampa and Toronto, before finishing the season with a four game set vs. Cleveland and end the year hosting the Yankees.  Tampa follows Boston’s visit with Minnesota coming to town, followed by trips to Baltimore and Detroit – all of them (after the Boston) of the 4-game variety.  If the D-Rays can take two of three from the Sox and then split with Minnesota, they should be able to take 3 of four from both Baltimore and Detroit.  In which case, I think they should win this division.  Boston will get the Wild Card though, no sweat.

The Central has the hurting White Sox leading the Twins by 1.5 games.  The Sox are suffering from injuries, but the Twins are shooting themselves in the foot.  The Chi-sox are probably going to take this division.  The only series left against playoff contenders is a showdown against the Twins.   The Twins also have a four gamer against the D-Rays.

In the NL, the races are a little more wide open.  The Cubs are leading the Brewers by 8 games and look like the closest thing to a lock.  The Dodgers have also extended their lead on Arizona to 4.5 games, and look must be feeling pretty secure at this point as well.  The final two births are completely up for grabs.  The Mets lead the East  by a game on the Phillies.  But the Phills are also tied for the Wild Card with Milwaukee, and only 2 games up on the quietly creeping Houston Astros.  St. Louis and Florida are still in the mix at 4.5 and 5.5 back as well.  I think the Phills are the strongest team of the main 3 (Philly, NY, and Milwaukee), and the other two are a bit shaky mentally.  With the rise of Brett Myers, the Phills now all of a sudden have become a pitching-heavy team with Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton.  The team’s major weakness (bullpen depth after closer Brad Lidge) hasn’t been as big of a factor as of late.  And Ryan Howard and Jason Werth are on a tear.  They also have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, after sweeping four games against Milwaukee.  Aside from a three-gamer in Florida, they play the other nine games against teams under .500 (3@ATL, 3 vs. ATL, 3 vs. WAS).

I think the Mets could be the next best team, as Carlos Delgado is making a late MVP run, but their bullpen is an even bigger weakness.  But they also have to close the year with both the Cubs and Marlins coming to town for the last 7.

The Brew-crew is probably more talented than the Mets, but they have 6 more left against the Cubs, and after losing 11 of 14, you have to wonder about this team mentally.  Two weeks ago their lead in the wild card looked insurmountable.

The Astros are the X-Factor.  Aside from losing the last two to the Cubs, they’d won 14 of 15 to re-join the wild card race.  They are undoubtedly the hottest team in the run.  And their schedule is pretty favorable and their ace, Roy Oswalt, has 3 more starts scheduled.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them grab the Wild Card if the Mets falter at all.

So how do they match up?  Houston would probably draw the Phillies in the first round.  Call it Brad Lidge’s revenge.  This is the one team the Phills would love to draw in the first round.  They can beat the Astros.  The Phills have the pitching depth and star hitters to beat the Astros.  Both times are a little over-reliant on sluggers to be a quality playoff team, but in this matchup I’m taking the Phills in 4.

The Cubs would then draw the Dodgers in a media-friendly matchup.  Here, the Harden/Zambrano/Dempster combination will be too much for the Dodgers.  Harden is lights out when healthy, and Zambrano just threw a no-hitter.  Dempster has been the steady hand all season, and I like the Cubs in a sweep.  The Dodgers are a nice story with Joe Torre returning to the playoffs, but they just aren’t on the Cubs’ level.

The Cubs/Phillies matchup should be a dousy.  Harden/Hamels in the opener should be the premier matchup of the playoffs.  A Myers/Zambrano matchup probably goes to Myers right now, and Dempster/Moyer could go either way.  Surprisingly, the Cubs don’t generate a lot of runs from non-sluggers either.  I’m taking the Phils in an upset here.  Just too strong of a lineup in Philly.  You have Rollins/Utley/Werth/Howard – all of whom can take over the series.  Not to be out-done, the Cubs counter with a top 4 of Soriano/Theriot/Lee/Ramirez.  But I like the Phills because of their pitching depth (surprisingly enough).  Neither Ted Lilly or Jason Marquis beats Joe Blanton.  Kyle Kendrick, the Phills’ struggling fifth starter, is relegated to bullpen duty in the playoffs.  Beating Harden would be tough.  But the Phills can count on Myers/Moyer over Zambrano/Dempster.  I’m taking the Phills in 7.

Off to the AL, where it looks like the Rays would get the White Sox in the first round.  Here I like the Rays all the way.  The Rays can manufacture runs in the playoffs, the Sox have to hit the ball out of the ballpark.  It’s really what this comes down to because the White Sox don’t have the front line starters to beat out the Rays’ top 4.  Rays in a sweep

The Angels would get the Red Sox – again.  I like the Sox – again.  Becket, Lester, and Dice K should be able to silence an Angels team that is vulnerable to a lack of patience.  Despite the Angels’ success in the regular season, I don’t think they can take the Sox in the playoffs.  Sox in 4.

This would set up what everyone’s waited for all year – D-Rays vs. Red Sox.  The Rays’ fourth starter, Andy Sonnanstine is the only spot where they have an advantage on Boston.  Becket beats Kazmir, Lester beats Shields, and Dice K kills Garza.  At the plate, a healthy Red Sox team features all-star caliber players all over the place.  The D-Rays’ main advantage (bullpen) is negated a bit in the playoffs with all the days off.  I think the Sox take this in 6.

This sets up Sox vs. Phillies in the World Series.  Here the Sox should win it pretty handily.  The Phills have all sorts of matchup problems against Boston.  Too many sluggers, too much over-swinging.  I take the Sox in 5.

 

The Wizard of Oz

When you choke, Oz lets you kno

Ok, to be real for a minute: Ozzie Guillen is my favorite MLB manager.  He has the balls to say stuff your favorite team’s manager thinks, but is scared to say.  A couple years ago, people complained that he’d picked too many of his own guys on the All-Star team.  “Oh yeah?” he said, “you don’t like me?  Then beat me.  Then I won’t be choosing guys.”  True statement, and in successive years, PC-managers Jim Leyland and Terry Francona notably snubbed two of their own guys.  Think Gary Sheffield and Jim Lester wish they had Oz managing them so they could get their all-star bonuses?  My opinion is that Oz is a lot smarter than the media and fans tend to think.  He uses the media to get his players rallied up.  And might I add, he has the ring to prove that it works.

So he admitted to plunking Miguel Olivio in retaliation for the Royals’ plunking Nick Swisher.  So what?  Pardon me while I yawn.  If anyone says they care, they’ll be the first one.  Because anyone who believes that players don’t throw at other players for retaliation, is living right next to Peter Pan in Never Never Land.  Ozzie might be looking at a suspension.  It appears to me that the Griffey trade was an admission that the Nick Swisher signing didn’t quite provide the offense they were looking for.

But I would expect the media tirade that will come from this interview to result in a 10 game winning streak.  You can say whatever you want about Ozzie’s out-bursts, but his team sure does get them wins.