Being Tim Duncan

As the real decade’s last playoffs turn, the best player of the decade has found himself in a bit of a ditch….

Tim Duncan is not used to losing.  Last year was the second time in his career that he did not make the second round of the NBA Playoffs, after losing to the Mavericks in 5.  He now sits in a position where his team is down 2 games to none in the second round of the playoffs as the Spurs return home from Phoenix.  The Suns…..the Mavs….two teams Duncan has owned throughout his career.

Tim Duncan is not just any aging superstar.  He’s undoubtedly the greatest Power Forward ever and a top 10 player of all-time to anyone who follows basketball.  But he hasn’t won a title since 2007, and while he still has Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, the rest of the team has gone through a complete makeover.

He has four rings, but probably should have more.  After winning one in his second season, 1998-99, Duncan had to sit back and watch the Lakers run off three in a row.  He won another one in 2002-03, before David Robinson finally retired.  A flukey game winner by Derek Fisher cost them a chance at back-to-back titles, before winning again in 2004-05.  Bothered by the planter fasciitis for most of the season, Duncan still managed to 39 points before missing all but one of his seven shots in overtime of game 7, and the Spurs lost to the Mavs in 2006.  But they’d win it again in 2007.  After losing to the Lakers in 2008, injuries to both Duncan and Ginobili cost them 2009.  This year, with the core older than ever, and both Duncan and Parker coming off of injuries, the team was rejuvenated by new guys during the season.  But the playoff version of the Spurs hasn’t yet shown the mental toughness of that last title team in 2007.

That year, Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto split center duties next to Duncan.  Both did reasonably well, splitting the minutes a normal starting center would get and combining for 9.7 rebounds/game.  Elson has essentially been forgotten in the NBA, and is currently rotting on the bench in Philly.  Oberto signed on with Washington and is still playing fairly well with his hustle and rebounding.  The two have been replaced with Antonio McDyess, for the beginning of games.  But the lack of another dependable big has led to Duncan playing most of the game these days as the sole big on the floor.  Which means that in addition to the normal 20/10 he puts up, Duncan also needs to help make up for the 10 rebounds a game they lose from their formally typical center position.  He also needs to guard the best big on the floor, and block all the shots.

Every key contributor from that 2007 squad surrounding Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker is gone.  Michael Finley asked to be let walk after he’d fallen out of the rotation, and is now a rotation guy in Boston.  Brent Barry is on NBA TV every night dissecting the Spurs and everyone else.  Beno Udrih, Parker’s dependable backup, is now a fringe starter in Sacramento, supporting Tyreke Evans as he used to do with Parker.  Big Shot Robert Horry retired a couple of years ago.  But the biggest blow was losing long-time defensive stall-worth Bruce Bowen to, essentially, old age.  He and his colorful bowties are now found on ESPN.  No longer is he the best perimeter in the league, hated as much for his greatness as for his cheap tactics.

Richard Jefferson now mans Bowen’s old position of Small Forward.  Jefferson is the complete opposite of Bowen.  Incredibly athletic and talented, it was assumed Jefferson would be a huge upgrade.  However Jefferson is a bit of a head-case and has proven to be unpredictable and mentally fragile.  Plus his game seems to have disappeared offensively, in the bogged down, half court Spurs offense.  Jefferson’s successful days were in Jersey where J-Kidd led the fast break and K-Mart handled the stopper role.  In Spur-land he’s been asked to get to the rim, guard the best offensive wing, and occasionally shoot 3’s.  He hasn’t been too good at any of these.

George Hill has taken over Udrih’s old role.  He’s played fantastic, particularly when Parker went down for most of the season.  But during the playoffs he’s looked timid.  He seems to tend to give too much ground to Parker when paired and is turned into a spot shooter on offense.  He needs to play HIS game.  Here’s a guy that’s probably the future of the team, but still seems a bit in awe of his three championship teammates.

McDyess is essentially in Horry’s role, except backwards.  Horry would only play at the end of games to spread the floor.  McDyess plays only at the beginning of games to help relieve some pressure off of Duncan.  The team plays most of its’ minutes in the playoffs with Jefferson in the power forward role and Ginobili at small forward so that both Parker and Hill can be on the floor.  As a result, you are asking Jefferson to not only get the normal small forward’s amount of rebounds (6-7), but also a split the center’s rebounds with Duncan.  Not going to happen.

The team really has no Barry or Finley, as Keith Bogans can’t do enough on offense to merit staying on the floor.  Roger Mason had a nice season last year, but can’t defend a chair.  And DeJuan Blair has been a nice surprise but has been overmatched on the boards in the playoffs.  And when he’s not boarding, he’s not doing enough to stay on the floor.

The holes on the Spurs aren’t typical.  They lack post defense and rebounding.  Those are the only things they asked of their centers in the past.  Today, Duncan is having to provide production for both post positions which, at age 34 with all the miles of those long playoff runs, is probably too much to handle, even for one of the greatest players to ever pick up a basketball.  Perhaps the team would be better if they started Parker, like everyone is suggesting.  I think their bigger problem is rebounding, and that they should play McDyess or Blair for more minutes at the end of games.  But whatever the case, this could be the last hurrah for Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, and Coach Pop (only probably the best coach of all-time).

 

“The N*gga You Love To Hate”

Every SG and SF in the NBA can breathe a sigh of relief.

Never have Ice Cube’s words rang so true than for one Bruce Bowen.  He was the ultimate most-hated player in the NBA (sans Spurs fans), but every fan in the world who knows anything about basketball would consent that if he were on their team, they’d love him.  It appears he might be done for, after being released by Milwaukee last week, so what’s his legacy?  He’s not the guy you think of first (Tim Duncan) when you think of the 2000’s Spurs teams with all the rings.  In fact he’s not second (Tony Parker), third (Manu Ginobili), or fourth (David Robinson – even though he only won two) either.  But he was just as vital.  And he picked up three rings for his troubles.  Bowen became the best defensive player in the game the moment he joined the Spurs, after years of apprentice-ship in Miami.  Learning defense from Pat Riley and Greg Poppovich didn’t make him the most feared defender in the league, but it sure didn’t hurt.

Many players in the media bashed him and called him “cheap” or “dirty.”  But you know what?  They say the same thing about Hines Ward of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he might be a first ballot hall-of-famer, and is a Super Bowl MVP.  But the beefs were numerous with Bowen; Steve Francis, Ray Allen, Chris Paul, and Amare Stoudemire.  The battle with Allen has been the most personal over the years.  For the better part of this decade (really, 01-02 through 06-07), he’s been the best one-on-one defender in the league in my opinion (Shane Battier has surpassed  him from the last two seasons).  Last season, Bowen’s defense took a dramatic turn south and he was really just coasting off of his reputation. He has his disciples around the NBA; DeShawn Stevenson is a similar forgotten man-to-star defender story, Tayshaun Prince and Battier are probably the two best wing defenders in the league today (and Kobe, when he wants to be), Dahntay Jones is attempting to be every bit the annoyance Bowen was.  All of these guys owe a lot to Bowen.

So here’s to you, Bruce.  It doesn’t look like you’re quite the player you once were, and maybe it’s time to call it a career.  But yours is one that is under-appreciated, and should be remembered.

 

Dime’s Fantasy Finals Matchups

Basketball websites always has these gimmicky user-involved tournaments. Balls Don’t Lie is probably the king of these. But the best I’ve come across is Dime Mag’s Fantasy Finals. In fact I like these so much, I decided to post my thoughts on their early matchups.

2008 Lakers Vs. 1995 Magic

In Dime’s rules, everyone’s healthy and the older team has home court. Now personally, I have a somewhat low opinion of last year’s Lakers team, at least historically speaking. Fish is/was washed up. His last great year was with Utah. And I say “great” because Fish is one of the most underrated players of my lifetime. Played great D, hit clutch threes, Kobe and Shaq both trusted him, Phil trusted him. Vlad just sucked anyway. Ariza hadn’t really had his 2009 breakout year. Bynum’s soft. And Gasol needs to demand the ball more. Odom’s inconsistent. At least Vujacic and Farmar were much better last year. And they had Turiaf. Come to think of it, with the exception of Ariza, everyone on the Lakers was better last year.

This Magic team was one of my favorite NBA Finals losers. They had Shaq entering his prime, Penny in his dead-prime (which only lasted like 3 years). Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott playing out of their respective minds. Horace Grant giving it one last shot, and Brian Shaw doing all those little Brian Shaw-things. But their bench was very weak after Shaw.

The key to this series would be Odom. If he shows up every game, the Lakers probably win in 5 or 6. But since I have never seen him do that (even in Miami and with the Clippers – the playoffs were what made Wade and Brand the number one guys on those teams), I don’t think he does it here. I’d say if Kobe gets a 10 in this series, Penny’s probably an 9.5. Shaq’s a 10, Bynum’s probably a 6. I’d give Gasol a 10 if he was demanding the ball move – the dude has a sick arsenal of post moves. But since he’s so lax, he gets an 8, Ho Grant was standing on one leg at that point, he gets a 5. Since Penny and Kobe would guard each other, it’s washed up Fish vs. pussy Anderson. Fortunately it wasn’t until after 95 (when he missed the free throws) that Anderson went into a complete funk. But here he should have enough to barely edge Fish, say…..7-6. In the Vlad/Scott matchup we’ll call it even since Scott’s much more deadly, but Vlad has the size advantage, 7.5 each. The bench is where Odom comes in. I’ll give this to the Lakers, but only barely. When Odom doesn’t show up, it’s basically even. So we’ll say 8-7. Coaching-wise, Phil gets it 9-8 over Brian Hill. Totals? 46.5 for Orlando, 46.5 for the Lakers. Dead even. I’ll go with Orlando in 7. Because we know that Shaw shows up, we don’t know about Odom.  Plus the Magic get homecourt.

1998 Bulls Vs. 2007 Spurs

This is closer than you think. The most dominant NBA team of all-time goes up against possibly the most boring dynasty of all-time. At that point, Ron Harper was 2005 Derek Fisher. And Tony Parker kills him, we’ll say 9-7. MJ probably guards Ginobili, but Bowen probably guards him. We’ll say MJ gets a 10, because even though that’s got to be tiring, MJ’s sort of…well he’s the best player ever. Ginobili probably guards Pippen. So we’ll say Ginobili’s tired but still manages a 7.5. Bowen manages to be a solid 7, and Pippen’s a 9 here. Duncan gets a 10 while Rodman gets an 8, good matchup. And both of the terrible centers get 5’s because it’s really the sixth men who get play. The coaches are even at 10, but the Spurs pull the advantage off the bench with Horry, Finley and Barry over Kukoc and Kerr, 8-6. 55 for the Bulls, 54.5 for the Spurs. Bulls in 7.

2006 Heat vs. 2001 Sixers

This is a fun matchup. It’s Allen Iverson in his best season vs. Dwayne Wade in his I’m-better-than-MJ season.  One thing sticks out, Wade can sort of guard Iverson.  Iverson has no shot at Wade.  Wade’s almost as fast and about half a foot taller.  They have similar games in those seasons, but Wade is worlds better in efficiency.  Plus he has more help.  If Wade gets a 10, and Iverson a 9, the rest of this matchup is pretty one-sided.  Jason Williams, in his last effective season, beats snow, 8-7.  ‘Toine, also in his last effective season, bests George Lynch, 7.5-6.  For fun, we’ll call Haslem/Hill a tie, even though common sense would go with Haslem, 7-7.  And Shaq bests Deke, 8-6.5.  Coaching is an even 9, and the Heat’s bench still had James Posey, ‘Zo,  and GP, while the Sixers counter with Aaron McKie, a not-yet-developed Raja Bell, and a bunch of stiffs.  Heat, 9-6.  For a final total of 57.5 for a strong Heat team, and 50.5 for the Sixers.  I think the Heat sweep this.  Fun Series, but not too long.

2004 Pistons vs. 1994 Knicks

Bad matchup for the Knicks. The Pistons counter the Knicks strengths too well. Chauncey dominates Harper, 9-7. I think Rip pulls out ahead of Starks, 8.5-8. Tayshaun edges Smith 7.5-7. Rasheed pulls Oakley out of the paint, and beats him 8-7. While Ewing can only muster a 10-8.5 edge over Ben. Plus that Pistons team was deep. The Knicks’ strength was their depth, but this Pistons team was even deeper. The Pistons rolled out Corliss Williamson, Elden Campbell, Lindsey Hunter, Mike James, and Mehmet Okur. Picture that. Okur, entering his prime, was the 10th man on this team. And he’s been an all-star in this league. Anthony Mason and Greg Anthony give the Knicks the edge in a lot of series, but here they lose 10-9 Though we just called the Pat Riley/Larry Brown matchup a tie, so we’ll stick with that, 9-9. Brown gets his revenge here, 60.5-57. I think the Pistons take this in 6, they weren’t too good at breaking team’s backs, if you remember.

2008 Celtics vs. 1993 Suns

Wow, giving this a quick eyeball, it looks like the best matchup yet. KG’s best squad vs. Chuck’s best squad. Rondo/KJ. Majerle/Ray Ray. I’m giving KJ the PG edge, 9-8. But remember, KJ disappeared in the finals that year. Rondo does not disappear. He’s consistently annoying you. But KJ was better. Ray Ray gets the same slight edge on Majerle, 9-8. Mainly because, none of these guys could stop each other. But Ray Ray’s slightly better. He might be the best pure shooter I’ve ever seen. Pierce/Dumas is where the Celtics probably win the series. Pierce gets this, 10-7. Dumas was slightly underrated in memory, but also slightly overrated at the time because his numbers were better than he was. Mainly because of the system he played in – like a mid-90’s Leandro Barbosa. We’ll call KG/Barkley a tie, 10-10. Both moved on from their crappy first teams to much more loaded second squads. This was Barkley’s best year, but KG played better defense. The Centers were Kendrick Perkins vs. Mark West, and we’ll call this even at 6. As good as the Celtics’ bench was last year, the Suns’ was even better with Ceballos, Ainge, Chambers, Oliver Miller (don’t laugh, he was decent that year), and Frank Johnson, 9-8. And in Doc Rivers and Paul Westphal we have two of the most maligned coaches of all-time. They get an even 7. Final score, 58-56 Celtics. But the Suns get homecourt. I don’t know how to call this. It’s too close. Put a gun to my head? I’ll go with the Suns in 7.

2003 Nets vs. 1995 Rockets

Interesting matchup. I don’t know exactly how this’ll come out. Memory would probably tell you the Rockets were better, but let’s see because I think the Nets would give them problems. Kidd takes Kenny Smith pretty handily. Smith was one of the more underrated PG’s of the 90’s, at least he was before his TNT stint. But Kidd was the engine that made the Nets go, and 2003 was his best season. We’ll say 10-7.5. Clyde was not in his prime anymore, but still was very good. And he beats Kerry Kittles, quite easily, 9-6.5. Richard Jefferson probably beats Mario Elie, 8.5-7. They were similar players in those seasons, the difference being RJ’s defense and athleticism. K-Mart beats a young Horry, mainly on the defensive end. Most people don’t remember, but both of these guys were extremely athletic at that age. That would be a fun matchup. But K-Mart takes it, 8-7. Meanwhile, Hakeem dominates Collins, 10-6. I don’t need to say much else about that. Benches are pretty even – Deke/Lucious Harris & Aaron Williams playing over their heads/Rodney Rogers/a young Anthony Johnson vs. a young Sam I Am/Charles Jones (milk carton?)/Mad Max/Chucky Brown, 7-7. And Rudy bests Byron, 9-7. 56.5 for Clutch City, 53 for the Nets. Plus the Rockets get homecourt, so we’ll say Rockets in 6.

That was fun, we’ll do it again.

 

Stock Check

The NBA Playoffs are still in the first rounds.  But it’s time to see whose stocks have risen and dropped in the playoffs this year, leading to a comprehensive “best players of the year” list that i HOPE to write deeper into the playoffs.

Let’s start with the just-finished Denver/New Orleans Series:

UP: Chauncey Billups & Carmelo Anthony, Denver:

Probably having the most to gain from this series, Denver’s duo of all-stars’ stocks both went way up in this series for two different reasons.  Chauncey showed more ‘Melo in his game, and ‘Melo showed more Chauncey.  And right now it’s a legit question: Are either or both of these guys top 10 players in the league?  Chauncey took off from the beginning, catching fire from the tip off of game 1.  He drained three after three to help dominate this series.  Really, he played the role of Carmelo Anthony.  ‘Melo did the opposite.  He started off pretty quiet scoring-wise, but picked his spots perfectly.  Passing out of constant double-teams, playing shut-down defense on Peja, grabbing rebounds, playing all-around inspired basketball, and looking like he’s enjoying every minute of it.  ‘Melo was playing like Chauncey.  Until game 5, when ‘Melo and Chauncey went back to their familiar roles with ‘Melo dominating offensively and Chauncey rallying the troops.  When these two play like this, even the Lakers should be scared.

However it’d be difficult to find anyone on the Nuggets whose stock has dropped in this series.  (Nene, maybe?)  Just about everyone finally started playing up to their talents.  Whether it was Dahntay Jones and Kenyon Martin smothering the Hornets’ two best players, Chris Anderson soaring for blocks and rebounds (sometimes on the same shot), JR Smith nailing threes and then throwing up his three fingers so it looks like a gang sign, or Anthony Carter just looking for another guard to hit.

On the flipside, it’d be hard to see any bright side for the Hornets, but their two stars played particularly bad:

Down: Chris Paul & David West, New Orleans:

These two are on the downside for different reasons.  Let’s start with West.  He is not a legit all-star.  And after stealing Melo’s all-star nod this year, it was obvious in this series who was the better player.  In fact, I’d be surprised if he ever gets another all-star nod again.  Words can’t describe how well Kenyon shut him down.  He did not look like the David West we’ve seen for the past two years, he looked hesitant and scared.  He very rarely took that confident, catch-and-shoot style midrange shot that’s his bread and butter.  He’d always look around, scared Kenyon was going to swat his shit into the fifth row.  If David West was considered among the top 10 PF’s in the NBA earlier this season, he may possibly have fallen out of the top half.  It was just a really bad series for him.  Kenyon was in his head, as was Chris Anderson.  And they rendered him irrelevant in this series.

CP3 looked up, I’d think sometime in the first quarter of game 4.  He looked up and his team was getting their asses handed to them.  He had single-handedly given up his body and all his energy to lead them to a two-point victory in the previous game of a series his team was obviously over-matched in.  He was physically beaten, emotionally beaten, and mentally beaten.  He looked up at the scoreboard, and he finally got to thinking “there’s always next year,” and he gave up.

He didn’t give up in the sense that he didn’t play.  He still played.  Even played well at times.  But he wasn’t Chris Paul.  And you have to wonder about that.  Paul is considered by most (including myself) the best PG in the NBA and a consensus top 5 player in the league.  But Lebron or Kobe wouldn’t have just given up.  Certainly Wade wouldn’t.  Dwight Howard’s stock  may not be as high either, but at least he would’ve hit someone.  Chauncey definitely wouldn’t have given up.  You saw Deron, he played every minute of the Lakers series knowing he was out-matched, but still left it all on the court.  Same with Tony Parker against Dallas.  Rajon Rondo’s still doing it in Boston.

Chris Paul is still the best PG in the NBA until further notice, but you have to wonder about him after this series.

Utah/Lakers:

Up: Deron Williams, UTA:

It’s hard to give any sort of nod to the Lakers, since they won this pretty much as expected, so let’s focus on the Jazz. Deron Williams is for real. I questioned him in his rookie year because his performance was so streaky (ala Derrick Rose this year), but right now….he’s legit. He’s the second best PG in the NBA and is closing in on CP3 (of course we’re learning that Chauncey may be better than both of them….still). He pretty much single-handedly carried this team in this series, eventually falling in a noble defeat to the most talented team in the league.

Up: Paul Millsap, UTA:

While the Jazz did lose the series, Millsap proved to be a problem for the Lakers every step of the way.  And if Jerry Sloan ran more plays for him instead of Jarron Collins (!?), maybe the Jazz take another game.  But we’ll blame that on Sloan’s old age, instead of sadling it on Millsap.  He pretty much proved to just about everyone what I’ve suspected all along: that he’s better than Boozer, at least as an all-around player.

Down: Carlos Boozer, UTA:

While I don’t think Boozer directly effected his stock on the upcoming Free Agent market, since the Lakers were supposed to win anyway, Boozer sure didn’t help his situation in comparison to Millsap.  Millsap outplayed him in this series – defensively AND offensively.  And Boozer’s flaws defensively were never more apparent than having Pau Gasol simply dominate him.  Though to be fair, Gasol dominates everyone in the post.  And the undersized combination of Millsap and Boozer couldn’t stop the Lakers’ bigs at all.

Down: Mehmet Okur, UTA:

While it’s quite possible that the outcome may not have changed anyway, it’s hard not to notice that the Jazz were playing this series without their center when the Lakers are dominating them up front in every way possible.  Let’s get this out of the way: I’m not doubting Okur’s injury at all.  But many players are injured at this time of year, and if you can play at all in the series, you should play the whole series.  Especially when you watch your team being so easily handled on the boards and you’re the tallest guy on the team.

Cleveland/Detroit:

Up: Mo Williams & Delonte West, Cavs:

Lebron’s undersized backcourt sidekicks are the most important factor of the playoffs, let’s start with Mo.

I am now a believer.  I was as critical as anyone when the Cavs signed Mo in the offseason, but he’s proven me wrong throughout the playoffs and on through the postseason.  He’s fit perfectly into the team’s concept and proven to be the one sidekick-star Lebron’s had that is as reliable as the King is.  He hits big shots, plays good passing lane defense, and adds a ton of intangibles to a team that is my pick to win the title.  He is a legit all-star and is playing as well as any Eastern PG not named Rondo.

As far as Delonte, I was always a big fan of the kid’s, despite his uber-ghetto off-the-court life. And he’s proven me right throughout the season and well into the playoffs.  He plays great defense (especially considering he’s probably closer to 6’1″ than his listed 6’3″ and he’s guarding 6’7″ two-guards), provides necessary hustle plays, and fills up a stat sheet (points, rebounds, assists, steals, and even blocks).  With his development and the emergence of Jameer Nelson in Orlando as a legit all-star, just how good was that St. Joes team?

Down: Rasheed Wallace & Allen Iverson, Pistons:

This is a painful one for me to talk about.  But as much as I’ve been in both of these guys’ corners throughout their careers, they both turned in horrible showings in this series. I’m letting Tayshaun and Rip off the hook, and Dice played his ass off.  But these two have some explaining to do.

Rasheed pretty much stopped playing, and resorted to his typical screaming at refs.  As talented as he is, he’s always been an equally big head-case.  We thought that was mostly behind him when he joined Detroit.  But he he looked intimidated throughout the series.  Did he simply give up in game 4?  It wasn’t like Cleveland had anyone who could stop him.

Iverson probably lost the most ground out of anyone in the playoffs, and he didn’t even play.  Or perhaps I should say, because he didn’t play. It is not like the Answer to give up. But that’s how it appeared this year. Allen has been one of my favorite players in the league for years, but this year he had his first terrible year ever, and he didn’t fight through it in typical Iverson fashion. In fact, he didn’t fight much at all. It seemed like he was backed into a corner with the team’s failings and the coach wanting him to come off the bench. Instead of coming out and being the killer he’s been throughout his career, he gave up. I don’t doubt his injury was legit, but it certainly had funny timing, coming right after he was demoted to sixth man. And he’s a free agent this season, so it looks like it came at the worst time in his career.

Atlanta/Miami:

Up: Mike Bibby & Josh Smith, ATL:

The first is a long time veteran who was supposed to be done, and the other is a immature kid who looked like he’d never quite live up to his incredible potential.  Bibby’s post-Sac rejuvenation is one of the more over-looked stories of the year.  He’s been the team’s second best player all year (after Joe Johnson) and has carried the team in its’ Miami series despite JJ being MIA (get it?).  Bibby went from being outplayed by Beno Udrih (the worst starting PG in basketball) in Sacramento to being the second best player in this series.

Smith finally seems to be getting it.  Of course, the kid is still a headcase without a jumpshot.  But he plays great defense, runs down loose balls, and dunks on…well…everyone.

Down: Michael Beasley & Mario Chalmers, MIA:

So the Heat had the second pick in the NBA draft.  Who’d they pick, again?  The most NBA-ready player in the draft, you say?  Was he injured during their first round series?  No?  Sure was hard to nice him…

And where was the other rookie they had?  The kid who won the NCAA title game with his three?  He keeps fouling out?  Is 95-year-old Mike Bibby speeding faster than him from Bibbs’ wheelchair?

Dallas/San Antonio:

Jason Kidd, DAL & Tony Parker, SAS:

This series has traditionally been about Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, but this year’s was about the veteran PG’s.  Now mind you, Kidd is essentially a PG on offense only (there’s no way he’s chasing TP around for 40 minutes), but he’s still proving his worth.  Devin Harris’ emergence as an all-star put a black eye on Cuban’s trade.  But I’m pretty sure Kidd would trade an all-star nod to still be playing in May.  He still ran the offense, and most importantly, kept the scorers happy.  Dirk, Josh Howard, JJ Barea, and Jason Terry were the central scorers, but Kidd made sure they were all involved.

Meanwhile, Tony Parker went down in a blaze.  He averaged 28.6 in the San Antonio, good for second in all playoff series’, just behind Lebron’s 32. Unfortunately, after Duncan’s 20 & 8, Parker got no help whatsoever.  Part of that blame could go on him as the point guard, for failing to get his other guys involved, but most of it is just his teammates aren’t that good.  Especially without Ginobili. If there was any doubt that TP is a top 5 (at the very least) PG, it was erased in this series.

Down: Bruce Bowen, SAS & Dirk Nowitzki, DAL:

There was a time at which this would’ve been the heavily buzzed matchup of this series.  However it wasn’t to be here as both players failed to show up.  Bowen couldn’t stay on the court and Nowitzki couldn’t stay effective.  Ultimately it led to the downfall of the Spurs, but Dirk’s teammates had enough to lift up his struggles.  However things won’t get any easier for Dirk as he will draw Kenyon Martin in the next round.  And just as important, his key teammates will also get some strong defensive assignments: Kidd is in line to draw Chauncey Billups, while Jason Terry looks like he’ll draw Anthony Carter, and Josh Howard should get Dahntay Jones.

Houston/Portland:

Up: Brandon Roy, POR:

If there was any question regarding Roy’s newly-found superstar status, it was certainly answered in this series.  The Rockets have, arguably, the two best wing defenders in the league in Ron Artest and Shane Battier.  But it hasn’t mattered to Roy.  Artest called Roy the best player he’d ever covered.  I’ll tell you right now that he isn’t too far behind Kobe and Wade as the third best SG in the league.   Obviously, he doesn’t have the rings that they do, but there’s plenty of time for that.  The Rox very will may close out the Blazers at home tonight, but it won’t be without a fight from Roy.  He’s just too talented and too motivated.

Up: Yao Ming, HOU:

Scola and Brooks have played way better than anyone could’ve expected.  But its’ Yao who’s gained the most from the Rockets side.  It’s time to end this silly Yao Ming/Dwight Howard debate.  Yao is the best center in the world.  Period.  No commas.  No parentheses.  He’s the best, ok?  Live with it.  If the Rockets passed to him in the low post every single time, they’d win every game.  That’s it, he’s the best.  End of discussion.  Period.

Down: Greg Oden, POR:

He’s become sort of the joke of this series.  He’s been racking up fouls like he did in the regular season.  And with Outlaw struggling, you sort of wonder how good Portland would be a with a really good SF.  Maybe a SF like…..say, Kevin Durant?

Down: Ron Artest:

As everyone is enjoying talking about how much better the Rockets are playing without T-Mac. The little secret no one’s talking about is how little they’ve gotten out of, essentially T-Mac’s replacement, Ron Artest. You mean to tell me the Rockets wouldn’t have already won this series if T-Mac was out there? Even at 65%? Ron Artest has given you nothing in this series. Roy’s lighting him up on D, and Ron’s only scoring 13/game at 37% shooting. In his worst playoffs series, as a sixth man for Toronto, McGrady averaged 16.7 points on 39% shooting, his career playoff lows. As a starter, his worst series was two years ago when he dropped 25.3 pts on 39% shooting. Think the Rockets couldn’t use that right now? Along with his typical end-of-game heroics?

Orlando/Philly:

Up: Louis Williams & Thaddeus Young, PHI:

It is the general consensus that Philly wasn’t supposed to be close to Orlando.  In fact most experts picked a clean sweep.  However, it is also general consensus now that Philly will probably beat an Orlando team without Dwight Howard and Courney Lee, to force a game 7 in Orlando on Saturday.  Most of the credit for this surprise has gone to the team’s two Andre’s: Iguodala & Miller.  However the most efficient players have been Young and Williams, the second-tier players.  Basically, these two can score.  And yes, Miller is the veteran leader and Iguodala, well, it’s his team.   But it’s hard to ignore these two.  Young is averaging 13 on 47% shooting, while Williams is only 8 on 41 % shooting.  So it’s easy to see why they are overlooked.  But these two are leading the team with energy and defense that don’t usually show up in box scores.  But anyone watching the game can see their impact.

Down: Dwight Howard & Hedo Turkoglu, ORL

These two also moved down for different reasons.  Hedo (or “He Don’t” as  I’ve called him in his post-Kings days…which…by the way…is a nicknamed i ripped off from a Lakers fan) has been terrible in the series.  11.8 points on 33% shooting, while averaging 3 TO’s to 3 Assists and 3.4 fouls per game.  Just terrible.  Hedo’s playoffs have been a series of stinkers: 2-8 with four fouls in game one, a 3-10 night that was saved by his 9-11 from the line in game 2, a 2-5 night with 5 fouls and 5 turnovers in game 3,  a 8-11 breakout game in game 4 with 17 points, leading into a 3-14, 5 foul game in Game 5.

Dwight’s numbers, on the other hand, have been outstanding.  He’s been completely dominant and has made Sam Dalembert look like a kindergardener who just got his transformers stolen.  So with all of his dominance, why the need for the sucker punch in game 5?  That could end up costing the Magic the series.  That plus his fall on Courtney Lee rendered their most effective perimeter scorer out for the playoffs.  Altogether, the Magic could very well end up losing this series.  And while some of the blame will undoubtedly fall on Coach Stan Van Gundy.  The majority should fall on Howard.  He got himself kicked out of game 6.  He fell on Lee.  And he is going to have to make up for all of this with a monster game 7.

Boston/Chicago

Up: Ben Gordan, CHI & Rajon Rondo, BOS:

Other than maybe the Nuggets, these two have raised their respective stocks as much as anyone in the playoffs.  Rondo is leading an under-manned, beat up veteran team, and Gordon is keeping the inconsistent, young Bulls affloat.  He’s averaging 25 pts on 42% shooting in the playoffs.  And this is with a bad hammy.  He’s leading a Bulls team deeper into this series than anyone expected.  And, oh yeah, he’s in a contract year.

Rondo has been the unsung hero for the Celtics all year.  While it’s true that Pierce is still actually their best player, Rondo is a very close second, and has been even better than Pierce in this series.  How about 24.2 points on 51%(!!!) shooting to go with 10 dimes and 10 boards a game.  That’s right – Rajon Rondo is averaging a triple double in this series.  he may have passed Nelson and Harris as the elite young PG in the east.

Down: Eddie House & Stephon Marbury, BOS:

Nice performance off the bench from House and Marbury.  Combined, they are 15-50 from the field.  That’s 30%.  That’s terrible.  One would think that the Boston guards would have the advantage off of the bench.  But Kirk Hinrich is outplaying both of them.  If they don’t turn things around, the Celtics could have a long summer.

 

Kill that Noise!

MC Shan told you about Chris Bosh!

First of all, let me say this: Chris Bosh is NOT an MVP candidate currently.  Stop giving him so much credit.  He’s probably 11th in the league right now.  Right behind Dirk and right ahead of Vince Carter.  So in the immortal words of MC Shan, “Kill that Noise!”

“So Jason, then who are MVP candidates?”

Glad you asked.  I’m going to give you the top 20 players in the NBA (statistically speaking) and the 10 worst in the NBA this season, so far.  Then, I’m going to give you my early All-Star picks.

(*Applaude*)

The 10 Worst Players in the NBA so far in 2008-09:

10. Dahntay Jones, DEN: To think that this guy’s started 14 of their 17 games is pretty outlandish.  This is the same guy who couldn’t make the Kings’ roster last year, and they sucked.  Homeboy can jump out of the gym, that’s for sure, but he’s not a solid NBA player.  The guy shoots 43% from the floor and averages more than three times as many turnovers to assists.  But with George Karl’s grudge against JR Smith still in place, Jones starts.  And they wonder why Denver’s under-achieved so greatly under Karl.  At some point, you can’t blame AI or ‘Melo, you have to look at the coach too.  But Denver’s been red hot with Billups running the point, so that may be a moot point for now.

9. Bobby Simmons, NJN: This guy had two good years, but after getting hurt two years ago, he’s completely fallen out of favor with the basketball Gods.  He plays for a significantly over-achieving Nets team, but can’t seem to keep up.  The scary part: he, like Jones, starts.  He’s basically their replacement for Richard Jefferson.  I say slide Vince to the 3, and start CDR (my favorite college player from last year)!

Even the most advanced statistical studies can't show everything Bruce Bowen does for you on the court

8. Bruce Bowen, SAS: Bowen always scores low on statistical tests because his one-on-one defense doesn’t really show up in stats.  And he’s not really good for anything else.  There was one point where you could count on his three-point shooting, but that age has gone far away.  Plus the Spurs looked pretty terrible to tip off the season, especially when Tony Parker went down.  But the good thing about that injury is that Coach Pop was forced to play bench guys.  They’ve put together quite a little rotation now with George Hill and Roger Mason, who will come off the bench with Ginobili and Parker healthy.  I still think they need one more big to really compete with the elite of the Conference, but they’re much better off than I’d thought they’d be.  But then again, why doubt the Spurs?

7. Tyus Thomas, CHI: To call this guy a bust is probably an understatement at this point.  He’s joining the Michael Olowokandi/Kwame Brown/Darko Milicic group soon.  Let’s just face it: Thomas got too much credit for LSU’s Final Four run that year, when really Big Baby was the center of that team.  Thomas’ upside at this point is maybe Hakim Warrick.  Maybe.  And considering Warrick’s a below-average NBA player, that’s pretty bad for a guy who was essentially a number two pick in the draft.  Even with a stud point guard, this guy can’t score.  Ouch.

6. Jason Kapono, TOR: I’ve always thought this guy was overrated.  He’s supposedly the best shooter in the league (and he does shoot 52% from behind the arc), but he can’t stay on the court because his defense is so bad.  I don’t know how I left him off my list of the top 10 worst defenders in the league.  But let’s just call a spade a spade: Kapono is terrible.  He does more things to hurt your team (defense) than he can make up with his one skill (shooting 3’s).  Also to be noted is that he can’t create his own shot and is a completely straight-up catch-and-shoot guy.

5. Nick Collison, OKC: This is a guy who doesn’t belong here.  He’s an average NBA starter, but he must be hurt or something.  His rebounding numbers are half of his career average.  His shooting percentage is way down and all of his defensive numbers are way down.  I’m thinking he’s hurt.  He’s normally a very good hustle-work guy in the Jeff Foster-mode.  I’m not sure what’s going on here.

4. Ronnie Price, UTH: You can’t see it, but I smiled while typing that name.  When he was with the Kings I told anyone that would listen; don’t be fooled, he’s not good enough to be in the NBA.  He’s too small to defend anyone, and not quick enough to stay in front.  He’s also not especially athletic and takes terrible shots.  But he would put up such solid garbage-time numbers that all my fellow Kings fans wanted to bring him back.  But he’s garbage.  He sucks.  He’s someone you’d want to root for, but he’s just not good enough.

Last year Deshawn couldn't feel his face, this year he can't feel his jumper

3. Deshawn Stevenson, WAS: This one hurts.  Deshawn had become one of my favorite players in the league after last year’s run-ins with LeBron.  And after two years of very solid player, has gone into the tank this year.  He’s currently in a season-long shooting slump, and his Defense has slipped drastically.  Though I think he’ll get it together, you have to wonder if the past two years were simply him playing over his head.  In which case, he didn’t take the step forward that I’d thought he’d taken.  But if you’re looking for reasons Washington has been so horrible this season, Deshawn’s probably reason #1.  #2 would be Andray Blatche and the center position, which has been almost as horrible.  And #3 is Tough Juice’s defense has slipped.  But I’m a big Wiz fan and I’m rooting for them to turn it around.

2. Earl Watson, OKC: Watson has been in the bottom five for at least 3 years now.  The fact the Sonics-turned-Thunder keep bringing him back is more indicative of how bad their point guard situation is than how good he isn’t.  It’s pretty impressive that he keeps finding jobs though.  He must be a great practice player.

Mr. Triple Double is having a down year

1. Ricky Davis, MIA: Ahhh Ricky.  I have to admit, I didn’t think he’d be this bad.  It’s quite well-documented that he’s never on a good team (usually not a coincidence), but at least he gets ‘buckets’ right?  Well he has the worst +/- in the league, and has the lowest PER of players with enough minutes to qualify.  In fact, he’s so far having the worst season since i began checking these stats two years ago.  He’s shooting 27% from the field and averaging 4.3 points per game.  And he’s a scoring-specialist.

Now for a turn for the better:

The 20 Best NBA Players this year so far:

20. Andrew Bynum, LAL: Lost in the Gasol/Kobe hype is that Bynum is having quite a year as third wheel.  He’s actually having a better season than Gasol or Odom, and is third on the team on this list.  (The second is going to surprise you.)  But 12.4 and 9.1 while shooting 53% fromt he field will do that for you.  Not to mention he’s shooting 72% from the line.  Did i mention that he got off to a slow start and his stats sure to race up as his averages catch up?  It’s going to be a long year for everyone in the West trying to catch the Lakers.

19. Chauncey Billups, DEN: It should be no real surprise that Chauncey’s Denver’s top player thus far, or that he was easily Detroit’s.  He’s been in the top 10-15 every year since the ’04 title year.  Especially given how slow ‘Melo’s started statistically.  Chauncey’s actually been the third best PG this year, ahead of such luminaries as Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, and Jose Calderon.  It should also surprise no one that Denver caught fire once Billups was acquired.  They look like a legit threat to take down the Lakers and/or the Rockets, if they ever get theirselves together in Houston.  Talent-wise, there’s these three in the West, and then everyone else.  We’ll have to see how things work out in May and June though, as both Denver and Houston have histories of under-achieving.

18. Marcus Camby, LAC: Stat-heads are always crazy over Camby.  Because he gets outrageous amounts of Rebounds and Blocks without being a real viable option on offense.  He  litterally only seems to care about the team’s well-being.  Unfortunately, he went from an average club in Denver to a terrible club in LA.  But he’s still scoring 10 pts, grabbing 10 boards, and over 2.5 blocks/game.  What’s strange is that Denver has actually become a better defensive team without the former Defensive Player of the Year.

Ray Ray's rejuvenation

17. Ray Allen, BOS: I have to admit, I thought RayRay was done.  Sure he can be a fourth or fifth wheel on the Celtics and they can win a title, but his days of Jesus Shuttlesworth saving his team were long gone.  But he’s proving me wrong…..again.  17.7 Points, 4 boards and a new committment to defense say Ray Ray’s still got it.  His three-point percentage is down a bit, but overall Allen’s been the defending champs’ best player thus far through the season.

16. Trevor Ariza, LAL: The second Laker on the list is probably the biggest surprise of the group.  Though I can admit there are a couple other surprises coming up, Ariza isn’t even a starter, and he’s statistically the second best player on the best team in the NBA.  Ten points and 5 boards in 23 minutes/game isn’t that impressive.  But 1.73 steals per game in that time looks good.  Plus the kid rarely turns it over and has a really high FG% (50%) for a guy who can’t shoot (as his 32% from behind the arc and 62% from the line will tell you).  I’m not sure anyone saw this coming.  Last year when the Celtics won the title, Lakers fans said “wait til we get Bynum and Ariza back.”  We all kind of snickered at Ariza’s name being included in that claim.  We were wrong.

15. Danny Granger, IND: Anyone who thinks this one is a surprise does NOT watch enough basketball.  Granger has played at an all-star level for the past two years, and is sixth in the league in scoring this year.  What?  You thought Indiana was over-achieving because of Mike Dunleavy??! The fact that he’s continuing to improve should surprise absolutely no one.  This kid was the reason they felt Artest was expendable in the first place.  24 points and 5 boards is nice, but they’re even nicer when they come on 47% shooting.  What’s great about him is he’s also a lock-down defender.  His rebounds and 3 point shooting are down from his career averages, but if they come back out this Pacers team could be in the playoffs and you’ll know why.

14. Tim Duncan, SAS: He’s still 20/10 with 52%.  Though no longer THE dominant four in the league, he’s still very close to the top.  And with the early injuries to Ginobili and Parker, the Spurs have had to rely on Duncan even more than normal.  And now they are getting healthy again with Duncan having held down the fort.  Tim Duncan, despite his 20/10’s will always be underappreciated based on numbers alone.  He has been the dominant PF of this generation and is one of the greatest to ever play the game.

Brandon Roy is a superstar, officially now

13. Brandon Roy, POR: Last year he became a new poster-child for the NBA, as we all thrust him into the spotlight.  He had praise given to him that he wasn’t quite deserving of yet, sort of like Deron Williams.  Except he wasn an all-star, Williams was not.  Roy got most of the credit for the Blazers’ surprising first half success last year, when really it should have been doled out equally between he and LaMarcus Aldridge.  This year is another story.  This year it’s all him.  He’s gone from borderline star with superstar potential, to flat out superstar.  21 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, and stellar defense for the franchise player who is, unofficially, their point guard.

12. Vince Carter, NJN: Big rebound year for Vince.  While he played well with Jason Kidd, he’s playing even better now.  It could be argued that he’s playing the best ball of his career this year.  And even then, he’s not the best player on his team.  Jersey is the surprise team of the NBA this season, and Vince-sanity is a major reason why.  He’s dropping 24 points on 48% shooting for the Nets.  It’s tough to say this about Vince, since he’s pretty much universally hated, but he’s having one helluva year so far.

11. Chris Bosh, TOR: Here is where I have the most overrated player in the league so far.  Yes, he’s third in the league in scoring.  Yes he dominated the Olympics.  It looked like he had gained the edge in the constant battle with Dwight Howard.  But since they returned to the states, he’s looked a distant second in that competition.  Howard continues to put up rediculous stats, while Bosh’s numbers are just as good – maybe better.  How about 27 & 10?  How about 54% shooting?  But the downfall here is that the intangibles are just not coming Bosh’s way.  He has a fairly low +/-, and usually that has to do with defense.  With Jermaine O’Neal now in the low post, Bosh has struggled to find his role in the defense.  The team as a whole doesn’t have enough talent to compete with the big boys in Cleveland and Boston anyway.  Hopefully they figure something out or Bosh might really be New York-bound in a couple years.

10. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL: Dirk has accomplished a lot in the NBA.  He’s won MVP, been to the NBA Finals, and been universally praised.  In my book, his best season was 2005-06, when I had him as the second best player in the league.  But this year may prove to be his biggest challenge.  With Kidd still productive, but on the downside of his career, and defenses able to key more on Josh Howard, Dirk has to carry more of the load than ever.  It doesn’t help that Jerry Stackhouse has been all but left for dead by Coach Carlisle, or that no one outside fo the Dirk/Kidd/Howard/Jason Terry group is even playing like an average NBA player.  Dirk is the reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, so obviously he got something going.  He’s going to have to step up his game a bunch if the Mavs are actually going to compete.

9. Amare Stoudemire, PHO: Nobody appears to be happy in Phoenix, least of all Amare.  After have such a breakthrough in the second half of last year, Terry Porter’s new offense has been more centered around Shaquille O’Neal, and less around STAT.  This is a bad idea both business-wise and basketball-wise.  Business-wise, you are taking the risk of pissing off your marquee attraction for the future.  Nash and Shaq and Hill are all getting old fast.  The team is going to have to be rebuilt around Stoudemire.   But playing this game with him is risking losing him in 2010.  Even though he’s considering this a down year, he still is dropping 22 points and 8 boards a night.   He’s also shooting 57% and getting a block and a steal a night.  His defense is slowly improving, though it is still pretty bad.  Basketball-wise, you would want to get the ball in the hands of your best player, and Amare is the best player in Phoenix these days.

8. Andrei Kirilenko, UTAH: After his tiff with Jerry Sloan two years ago, Kirilenko went into the tank.  This season he’s come back rejuvenated.  Whatever he did, whatever his offseason regimen contained, he needs to stick to it because it worked quite well.  Boozer’s gotten most of the credit for holding the Jazz down during Deron’s injury, but it’s been Kirilenko doing the heavy lifting.  12.6 points and 6 rebounds a night are not outstanding numbers.  But it’s his defense and huge +/- numbers that put him among the game’s elite.

Even after all of the team's transactions, it was improvement from within that's led to Cleveland's hot start

7. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE: This is probably just as big of a surprise as Ariza.  Ilgauskas has always been a plausible NBA center.  He even got to the all-star game one year by default.  But this year he looks legit.  While Lebron and Mo Williams get the credit, it’s really Big Z who, by taking his game to another level, managed to improve the team so greatly.  Zydrunas is only 16 points, 7 boards, and 54% from the field, but all of his percentages are high.  He’s shooting 87% from the line and 38% from behind the arc.  The impressive part is that he’s putting up good numbers in decreased minutes. The Cavs, smartly, want to keep him fresh for the playoffs and try to reduce risk of injury so Big Z can help them attempt to take out the Celtics.

6. Kobe Bryant, LAL: Sure last year he was MVP, but it wasn’t his best year.  And he really wasn’t the best player last year (that was Lebron).  But the argument can always be made for Kobe being the best in the league.  Even Shaq now recognizes the greatness of Mr. Kobe Bryant.  The Kobe-ster has a very quiet 25 ppg and has not needed to take over too many games this year.  With the lineup the Lakers have, he hasn’t needed to.  Must we remind ourselves just how loaded the Lakers are…..

Anyone who says they saw Devin Harris' 2008 season coming is lying.

5. Devin Harris, NJN: This guy has to be, hands-down, the biggest surprise of the year.  He’s gone completely nuts.  He’s basically turned into Gilbert Arenas.  25 points and 6 assists.  He just dropped 47 on Phoenix the other night.  He dropped 38 on Detroit.  He’s the main reason the Nets are still smack dab in the middle of the playoff race.  We always knew he could defend and get to the rim, but who knew he could score like this?! Devin Harris has Most Improved Player quite easily thus far.  And should be a dark horse in the MVP race if he keeps this up.  He’s having a completely rediculous season for the a Nets team that looked like they were going to be horrible.

4. Dwight Howard, ORL: After Harris, the rest of this list is fairly predictable.  Howard finds time, in between McDonalds Monopoly adds, to drop 24 & 14 every night, lead the league in blocks, and shoot almost 60%.  Just another day at the office for Superman.

3. Chris Paul, NOR: Statistically  he’s even better than last year, when I had him as the second best player in the league.  He’s going to lose points from MVP voters because of the Hornets’ underachieving, but that’s not his fault.  That’s more because David West’s jumpshot is in the Lost & Found somewhere.  20 points & 11 dimes are Paul’s M.O.

2. Dwayne Wade, MIA: Wade is currently second  in the league by a whisker.  Literally a one-hundredth of a point separates Wade from #1.  And to call this a bounce-back year would be a severe understatement.  The dude is single-handedly willing a  team lead by Chris Quinn into the playoffs.  Keep in mind that this is a team that has 2 of its’ best 5 players are rookies.  They have no bench and a rookie head coach.  And Wade has them currently tied for the 8th spot in the playoffs.  Flash is rediculous.  There is, however, one man playing even better (though however slight the difference may be).

1. LeBron James, CLE: Let’s clear something up: Lebron has been the best player in the league for the past two seasons.  But Wade is right on his rear tail.  Well, not even…these two are neck-and-neck.   But yes, i can admit that LeBron’s been the best player in the league thus far, which leads us to:

The Eastern Conference All Star Team

Starters:

PG Devin Harris, NJN
SG Dwayne Wade, MIA
SF LeBron James, CLE
PF Chris Bosh, TOR
C Dwight Howard, ORL

Bench:
F Danny Granger, IND
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
F Caron Butler, WAS
G Vince Carter, NJN
G Ray Allen, BOS
G Joe Johnson, ATL
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE

Here Ilgauskas gets it bad because there’s no other Centers worth mentioning for the team. Butler makes the team despite hsi lousy team, and Johnson takes the final guard spot. No surprise with Allen and KG both making the team from the Celtics, as two Nets and Cavs make it as well.  Obviously, it’d be tough for Z or Butler to make it, so you’d probably get a Piston or two in there along with Paul Pierce on the actual team.

The Western Conference All-Star Team:

Starters:

PG Chris Paul, NOR
SG Kobe Bryant, LAL
SF Andrei Kirilenko, UTA
PF Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
C Amare Stoudemire, PHO

Bench:
F Tim Duncan, SAS
F Marcus Camby, LAC
F Al Jefferson, MIN
G Brandon Roy, POR
G Trevor Ariza, LAL
G Chauncey Billups, DEN
C Andrew Bynum, LAL

Here Jefferson makes the cut as the last player on the squad.  This dude reminds me of a Elton Brand.  But he’s a number one guy, unlike Brand, and plays porous D, unlike Brand.  Here, Kirilenko, Camby, Jefferson, and Ariza would all have trouble making the squad.  You could probably replace them with Boozer, Yao, Carmelo, and T-Mac for the actual squad.

 

“Well It’s Time (Part 2)”

First i should make a change from the original column.

It now looks like Toronto has moved up to the sixth seed to face Orlando, while Philly has fallen to seven to face Detroit. This changes things very little, when it comes to my predictions. Toronto beats Orlando in 7, and Philly might get one or two before Detroit rolls over them. Of course, then Detroit sweeps Toronto in the second round instead of the first.

And now to the best show in sports:

The NBA’s Western Conference Playoffs!

(by the way, I am NOT being sarcastic when i say that. It really is the best show in sports this year.)

1. Los Angeles Lakers, 56-25 (Remaining Game: Vs. SAC)

So the Lakers look like they are going to be the top seed. Blah blah blah…. Kobe, Pau, blah blah blah. I think everything that is to be said about this team has already been said. My thing is, they are not going to win the West. Period. In a seven game series, someone will figure out that they cannot guard anyone in the post with Bynum out. How do Gasol and Radmonovic defend Amare and Shaq? If we put Odom on West, we have Gasol and Radmanovic guarding Chandler and Peja? I don’t see it happening. And who can stop Tim Duncan? But I must say, Kobe is the best player in the league. He is the MVP. Despite how many times I’ve flip-flopped on this issue, at this point there should be no question. Now if the Hornets beat the Clippers (which they should) and win in Dallas (which they won’t), they take the top spot.

2. New Orleans Hornets, 55-25 (Remaining Games: LAC, @ DAL)

David West and CP3 have led New Orleans further than anyone thought

Let’s put the dumb talks about the Hornets losing their last two aside. They will win at home against the Clippers. There they will win at least the #2 seed. Then they will lose in Dallas. They are struggling their way into the playoffs, and I have them matching up with Dallas in the first round. This is a very scary matchup for the Hornets, for they have no one to make the Mavs pay for their lack of defensive post presence. This is, aside from the Warriors, the worst possible matchup for the Hornets in my opinion.

3. Utah Jazz, 54-27 (Remaining Games: @ SAS)

My premesis is that Utah beats San Antonio and both Houston and Phoenix lose. Therefore Utah would finish third and get to play seven with the Spurs. Now the Jazz are playing very well of late but they still have alot of holes. First of all is AK’s offense. Second is Boozer’s defense. Then we have Okur’s defense. They would be lucky to avoid Phoenix, but I think they are overrated in general. In a seven game series, they have only one positional advantage on the Spurs. In fact, the only teams i feel they can beat are Denver, Dallas, and Houston.

4. Houston Rockets, 54-27 (Remaining Games: LAC)

Houston, if they beat the Clippers, would be the fourth seed if Utah beats the Spurs. If they win, the Spurs win, and Phoenix wins, they would end up fifth. The best matchup for them would probably be the Spurs, but they will get the bad luck of facing Phoenix instead under my scenario. They actually seem to play well without Yao, but the recent tough losses are figuring into a bad playoff matchup for them. If they could have ended up with a top 2 seed, they would probably be ending their playoff drought this year.

5. Phoenix Suns, 54-27 (Remaining Games: POR)

Nash is noticing that his new buddies are bigger than he

If the Suns beat the Blazers, they will end up fifth. They lose all tiebreakers with Houston, so they cannot finish fourth unless Houston loses. They only tiebreaker they win is against the Spurs if the Spurs lose to Utah, as they do in this scenario. Basically, the Suns are a pretty decent lock to end up fifth. They will get Houston in the first round. This isn’t particularly important because all four of these teams will matchup against each other in some fashion in the first round, and Phoenix will beat any of them.

6. San Antonio Spurs, 55-26 (Remaining Games: UTA)

I am picking the Spurs to lose this game at home against the Jazz because the Spurs are nicked up and the Jazz are playing pretty well. However I would pick the Spurs to win a seven game series. This is the ideal matchup for them because they cannot matchup with Phoenix upfront, and Houston is actually better at those Spur-like things than the Spurs. So to me, losing this game against the Jazz, actually helps them even though they’d lose home court advantage.

7. Dallas Mavericks, 50-31 (Remaining Games: NO)

Under this scenario they’d get the Hornets. But i like them in the first round if they end up facing the Spurs or Jazz too. In fact the only playoff possibility that I wouldn’t like them against is the Lakers. Because this team can flat out score. And they will kill slower tempo teams like the Jazz or Spurs because they can play D quite well if your team only has a couple lead scorers. They do not matchup with the Lakers because the Lakers start 4 guys who can light it up, and Josh Howard can’t guard both Lamar Odom and Kobe at the same time. But he can guard Ginobili, since the Spurs have no other wing scorers. Or he can guard Deron Williams, if they get the Jazz.

8. Denver Nuggets, 49-32 (Remaining Games: MEM)

Carmelo and AI could be very dangerous in the playoffs

Under this scenario they’d get a date with the Lakers in the first round. But they could very well end up at #7. The Hornets could very well go into Dallas and win, and the Nuggets should beat Memphis. In that case they could still get the Lakers, but ideally they want New Orleans. But this is how deep this Conference is: the Nuggets could very easily upset the mighty Lakers in the first round. They are going to end up only six games back of them. That’s not too convincing in my book. Who guards AI? Kobe and Fish can’t keep up with him. If you put Odom on Carmelo, who guards K-Mart? The Nuggets have too many weapons for the Lakers to have Radmanovic starting, so they would probably have to slide Luke Walton into that spot. This is what’s great about the Western Conference playoffs: anyone can beat anyone!

Western Conference Awards

MVP
3. Tracy McGrady, HOU
2. Chris Paul, NOH
1. Kobe Bryant, LAL


“Sometimes I dream, that he is me…”…Oh wait its Kobe.

It would surprise absolutely no one if Kobe won. On the other hand it would surprise absolutely no one if CP3 won. I think T-Mac is the third choice because of the way he’s handled Yao’s injury. The Rockets actually got better when Yao went down. Think about that for a second: “The Rockets actually got better when Yao went down.” Startling eh?

Defensive Player Of The Year
3. Bruce Bowen, SAS
2. Tim Duncan, SAS
1. Shane Battier, HOU

How to guard an MVP, ask Shane Battier

Battier is, to me, the clear cut choice this year for this award. He’s as clear a cut-choice as KG in the East. He’s taken over Bowen’s role as the best defensive wing in the league. And though he’s no Kobe/T-Mac, he’s much better on offense than Bowen. But like the Pistons in the east, the Spurs still worked two player into the top 3.

Most Improved Player
3. David West, NOH
2. Monta Ellis, GSW
1. Rudy Gay, MEM

Rudy slams on anyone who makes fun of his last name

I am very tempted to give this to Ellis again, for the way he’s gone from top of the rotation guy (when he won this award last year) to co-superstar with Baron Davis. But alas, Rudy Gay gets it for becoming “The Man” in Memphis (sort of like last year with Kevin Martin, who i would have given the award to over Monta). So even though Memphis sucks, its still quite a leap that Rudy took this year.

Coach Of The Year
3. Byron Scott, NOH
2. Rick Adelman, HOU
1. Jerry Sloan, UTA

Jerry wanted to shake hands with the best coach in the league

Anyone who nominates Phil Jackson should be able to acknowledge that Sloan has had the same issues with Utah that the Lakers had. The difference is that the Lakers have Kobe Bryant and the Jazz don’t. Scott’s the favorite for the award, and with good reason. Adelman has done a tremendous job in Houston as well. But on my watch, the award would go to Sloan. He managed AK’s moody trade requests, Boozer’s lack of defense, Okur’s disappearing act, and Brewer’s lack of scoring. And he let Deron shine. He found a shooter in Kyle Korver, and he’s got a very solid bench. I think this has been his best coaching job of his career. Too bad no one else notices…..and i HATE the Jazz!

Rookie Of The Year
3. Luis Scola, HOU
2. Carl Landry, HOU
1. Kevin Durant, SEA

Kevin Durant: Where living the Dream on a nightmare team happens

This should surprise absolutely no one. But you know what? I think the two Rockets have made a case. But that said, I think it’d be a travesty if they won. Durant’s percentages were his main criticism, and they’ve gone way up here at the end of the year. Plus, he was a much bigger factor on this season with everything that’s gone on with the Sonics. Plus I’d love to see them get Beasley in the draft and sell Durant and Beasley to a Seattle crowd (after Starbucks is done suing OKC).

Playoff Predictions
Round 1
1. L.A. Lakers vs. 8. Denver Nuggets
What’s crazy is that last year an eight-seed beating the top seed was the biggest upset of all-time. This year, no one would be particularly surprised. Of course, this just happens to be the best eighth seed of all-time, boasting two superstars and a last year’s Defensive Player of The Year. I see Denver giving the Lakers the same problems the Warriors would have given them. If the Lakers try to bring Bynum back, he’s going to get run off the court. If they don’t, they have no one who can defend K-Mart/Nene in the post, and they probably won’t have him later in the playoffs. It’s a catch-22 for them, but they might lose this series anyway. I am going to call this even money. The Nuggets are one of the few teams who have more talent on the bench than the Lakers. And it would be sweet for Karl to be an eight-seed and upset a top-seed. The X-factor for me is actually not J.R. Smith for once, it’s Carmelo Anthony. If he regroups from his DUI and tears shit up (like i think he will, now that he has AI egging him on), they can do it. Nuggets in seven.

2. New Orleans Hornets Vs. 7. Dallas Mavericks

Dirk and the Mavs are prepared to out-muscle CP3 and the young Hornets

Has there ever been a year where the eight-and-seven seeds upset the top two seeds? The Mavericks are, right now, simply better than the Hornets. CP3 seems to be wearing down, and that means death to the Hornets. Plus, who can guard Dirk? Tyson Chandler?! Who guards anyone the Mavs have, really? While the Nuggets will need everything they can get to beat the Lakers, I don’t even think this series will be that close. I have Mavs in five.

3. Utah Jazz Vs. 6. San Antonio Spurs

When sanity is the sixth seed beating the third seed, something weird is going on. Yet i like the defending world champs to beat Utah here as well. Actually this is going to be a historic playoffs under my scenario. Utah can’t guard Duncan. And as good as Deron Williams is, he can’t keep up with Parker. So the point guard battle becomes a split. And the Jazz would then be relying on an off-year Mehmet Okur, as the only matchup they win. I don’t buy it. Spurs in six.

4. Houston Rockets Vs. 5. Phoenix Suns

Once supposed to be the duo that saved the Magic, now T-Mac and Grant Hill meet in the playoffs as rivals

I’d love to see T-Mac get out of the first round. But, not against Phoenix. No chance. Amare? Shaq? Grant Hill? Barbosa? Don’t forget that they still have Nash. Let’s say for arguments sake, that Battier manages to hold down Hill, and that matchup is a split. Let’s also say that Alston plays the series of his life, and wins his matchup with Nash. And T-Mac dominates Raja Bell. They still only last six games. It would only be right with this crazy of an NBA season, to see all four top seeds in the West go down in the first round. Suns in five.

Second Round

8. Denver Nuggets Vs. 5. Phoenix Suns

“Don’t worry about Denver, we got Shaq on our side!”

This is probably the worst matchup for Phoenix. The Nuggets have the big men to defend the Amare and Shaq. This would provide quite the number of crazy matchups. You’d probably stick Barbosa/Bell and Iverson against each other. We’d get Nash dominating Anthony Carter. Carmelo probably gets the edge over a slightly worn down Hill. Then you probably get some combination of K-Mart and Nene on Shaq (since Camby is way too skinny), and Camby on Amare. Great series! Even off of the bench, the Nuggets throw JR Smith, Linas Kleiza, and Eduardo Najera against the Suns’ Barbosa, Giricek and Diaw. It’s hard to give any edges. But I’m going with Phoenix in seven.

7. Dallas Mavericks Vs. 6. San Antonio Spurs


The Mavs’ 3 all-stars take a break while the Spurs cross mid court with their walkers

I think the Spurs have run out of gas. I like them over Utah because of matchups and experience, but I don’t see them falling to Dirk. Ginobili’s banged up because he’s had to carry so much of the load. Duncan’s banged up because, well, he’s getting old, and he’s had way too many of these long playoff runs. Finley and Oberto have become almost nonexistent. All they really have going for them, if they escape Utah, is Parker. But regardless, if Dallas plays the Spurs or the Jazz, they will win. Both those teams only have 3/4 guys who can put up 20. The Mavs have three guys who can average thirty if they need to. This is not going to take an out-of-body Dirk experience like he needed two years ago. But this is the Spurs, so they will get a couple. But the Mavs will win this in six games.

Western Conference Finals
“David Stern’s Dream Matchup”
After the craziest Conference season ever, he gets his two Great White Hopes
6. Phoenix Suns Vs. 7. Dallas Mavericks
(Now if he could only work on that LeBron/Wade-thing in the East)

Momma always said: “in basketball if it comes down to the white guy against the black guy, always go with the black guy”

This is Phoenix’s year. I can feel it. Let’s put it this way; Nash over Kidd, Bell/Terry even, Hill/Howard even, Amare/Dirk we’ll call the dream-match-up even, Shaq over Dampier. Barbosa/Giricek/Diaw over Eddie Jones/Brandan Bass/Devean George/Malik Allen. This Mavs team is not as deep as they’ve been in the past. But the Suns seem to have found a comfortable eight-man rotation with the emergence of Giricek. It would be kind of cool to see the craziest Conference Season in NBA History end up with last year’s two favorites in the Conference Finals. But I don’t think the Suns have too many problems in this series. I think they take it in five.

There it is. But wait! What about the NBA Finals? Well i had Phoenix over Detroit at the beginning of the season. And with all that has gone on this year; the Celtics being way better than anyone thought, the Heat being way worse than anyone thought, the Gasol, Kidd, and Shaq trades, the Warriors/Nuggets eight-seed battle, my crazy-ass playoff predictions, and a top 5 all-time MVP race, we still end up in the same place. Phoenix over Detroit in 6