Stock Check

The NBA Playoffs are still in the first rounds.  But it’s time to see whose stocks have risen and dropped in the playoffs this year, leading to a comprehensive “best players of the year” list that i HOPE to write deeper into the playoffs.

Let’s start with the just-finished Denver/New Orleans Series:

UP: Chauncey Billups & Carmelo Anthony, Denver:

Probably having the most to gain from this series, Denver’s duo of all-stars’ stocks both went way up in this series for two different reasons.  Chauncey showed more ‘Melo in his game, and ‘Melo showed more Chauncey.  And right now it’s a legit question: Are either or both of these guys top 10 players in the league?  Chauncey took off from the beginning, catching fire from the tip off of game 1.  He drained three after three to help dominate this series.  Really, he played the role of Carmelo Anthony.  ‘Melo did the opposite.  He started off pretty quiet scoring-wise, but picked his spots perfectly.  Passing out of constant double-teams, playing shut-down defense on Peja, grabbing rebounds, playing all-around inspired basketball, and looking like he’s enjoying every minute of it.  ‘Melo was playing like Chauncey.  Until game 5, when ‘Melo and Chauncey went back to their familiar roles with ‘Melo dominating offensively and Chauncey rallying the troops.  When these two play like this, even the Lakers should be scared.

However it’d be difficult to find anyone on the Nuggets whose stock has dropped in this series.  (Nene, maybe?)  Just about everyone finally started playing up to their talents.  Whether it was Dahntay Jones and Kenyon Martin smothering the Hornets’ two best players, Chris Anderson soaring for blocks and rebounds (sometimes on the same shot), JR Smith nailing threes and then throwing up his three fingers so it looks like a gang sign, or Anthony Carter just looking for another guard to hit.

On the flipside, it’d be hard to see any bright side for the Hornets, but their two stars played particularly bad:

Down: Chris Paul & David West, New Orleans:

These two are on the downside for different reasons.  Let’s start with West.  He is not a legit all-star.  And after stealing Melo’s all-star nod this year, it was obvious in this series who was the better player.  In fact, I’d be surprised if he ever gets another all-star nod again.  Words can’t describe how well Kenyon shut him down.  He did not look like the David West we’ve seen for the past two years, he looked hesitant and scared.  He very rarely took that confident, catch-and-shoot style midrange shot that’s his bread and butter.  He’d always look around, scared Kenyon was going to swat his shit into the fifth row.  If David West was considered among the top 10 PF’s in the NBA earlier this season, he may possibly have fallen out of the top half.  It was just a really bad series for him.  Kenyon was in his head, as was Chris Anderson.  And they rendered him irrelevant in this series.

CP3 looked up, I’d think sometime in the first quarter of game 4.  He looked up and his team was getting their asses handed to them.  He had single-handedly given up his body and all his energy to lead them to a two-point victory in the previous game of a series his team was obviously over-matched in.  He was physically beaten, emotionally beaten, and mentally beaten.  He looked up at the scoreboard, and he finally got to thinking “there’s always next year,” and he gave up.

He didn’t give up in the sense that he didn’t play.  He still played.  Even played well at times.  But he wasn’t Chris Paul.  And you have to wonder about that.  Paul is considered by most (including myself) the best PG in the NBA and a consensus top 5 player in the league.  But Lebron or Kobe wouldn’t have just given up.  Certainly Wade wouldn’t.  Dwight Howard’s stock  may not be as high either, but at least he would’ve hit someone.  Chauncey definitely wouldn’t have given up.  You saw Deron, he played every minute of the Lakers series knowing he was out-matched, but still left it all on the court.  Same with Tony Parker against Dallas.  Rajon Rondo’s still doing it in Boston.

Chris Paul is still the best PG in the NBA until further notice, but you have to wonder about him after this series.

Utah/Lakers:

Up: Deron Williams, UTA:

It’s hard to give any sort of nod to the Lakers, since they won this pretty much as expected, so let’s focus on the Jazz. Deron Williams is for real. I questioned him in his rookie year because his performance was so streaky (ala Derrick Rose this year), but right now….he’s legit. He’s the second best PG in the NBA and is closing in on CP3 (of course we’re learning that Chauncey may be better than both of them….still). He pretty much single-handedly carried this team in this series, eventually falling in a noble defeat to the most talented team in the league.

Up: Paul Millsap, UTA:

While the Jazz did lose the series, Millsap proved to be a problem for the Lakers every step of the way.  And if Jerry Sloan ran more plays for him instead of Jarron Collins (!?), maybe the Jazz take another game.  But we’ll blame that on Sloan’s old age, instead of sadling it on Millsap.  He pretty much proved to just about everyone what I’ve suspected all along: that he’s better than Boozer, at least as an all-around player.

Down: Carlos Boozer, UTA:

While I don’t think Boozer directly effected his stock on the upcoming Free Agent market, since the Lakers were supposed to win anyway, Boozer sure didn’t help his situation in comparison to Millsap.  Millsap outplayed him in this series – defensively AND offensively.  And Boozer’s flaws defensively were never more apparent than having Pau Gasol simply dominate him.  Though to be fair, Gasol dominates everyone in the post.  And the undersized combination of Millsap and Boozer couldn’t stop the Lakers’ bigs at all.

Down: Mehmet Okur, UTA:

While it’s quite possible that the outcome may not have changed anyway, it’s hard not to notice that the Jazz were playing this series without their center when the Lakers are dominating them up front in every way possible.  Let’s get this out of the way: I’m not doubting Okur’s injury at all.  But many players are injured at this time of year, and if you can play at all in the series, you should play the whole series.  Especially when you watch your team being so easily handled on the boards and you’re the tallest guy on the team.

Cleveland/Detroit:

Up: Mo Williams & Delonte West, Cavs:

Lebron’s undersized backcourt sidekicks are the most important factor of the playoffs, let’s start with Mo.

I am now a believer.  I was as critical as anyone when the Cavs signed Mo in the offseason, but he’s proven me wrong throughout the playoffs and on through the postseason.  He’s fit perfectly into the team’s concept and proven to be the one sidekick-star Lebron’s had that is as reliable as the King is.  He hits big shots, plays good passing lane defense, and adds a ton of intangibles to a team that is my pick to win the title.  He is a legit all-star and is playing as well as any Eastern PG not named Rondo.

As far as Delonte, I was always a big fan of the kid’s, despite his uber-ghetto off-the-court life. And he’s proven me right throughout the season and well into the playoffs.  He plays great defense (especially considering he’s probably closer to 6’1″ than his listed 6’3″ and he’s guarding 6’7″ two-guards), provides necessary hustle plays, and fills up a stat sheet (points, rebounds, assists, steals, and even blocks).  With his development and the emergence of Jameer Nelson in Orlando as a legit all-star, just how good was that St. Joes team?

Down: Rasheed Wallace & Allen Iverson, Pistons:

This is a painful one for me to talk about.  But as much as I’ve been in both of these guys’ corners throughout their careers, they both turned in horrible showings in this series. I’m letting Tayshaun and Rip off the hook, and Dice played his ass off.  But these two have some explaining to do.

Rasheed pretty much stopped playing, and resorted to his typical screaming at refs.  As talented as he is, he’s always been an equally big head-case.  We thought that was mostly behind him when he joined Detroit.  But he he looked intimidated throughout the series.  Did he simply give up in game 4?  It wasn’t like Cleveland had anyone who could stop him.

Iverson probably lost the most ground out of anyone in the playoffs, and he didn’t even play.  Or perhaps I should say, because he didn’t play. It is not like the Answer to give up. But that’s how it appeared this year. Allen has been one of my favorite players in the league for years, but this year he had his first terrible year ever, and he didn’t fight through it in typical Iverson fashion. In fact, he didn’t fight much at all. It seemed like he was backed into a corner with the team’s failings and the coach wanting him to come off the bench. Instead of coming out and being the killer he’s been throughout his career, he gave up. I don’t doubt his injury was legit, but it certainly had funny timing, coming right after he was demoted to sixth man. And he’s a free agent this season, so it looks like it came at the worst time in his career.

Atlanta/Miami:

Up: Mike Bibby & Josh Smith, ATL:

The first is a long time veteran who was supposed to be done, and the other is a immature kid who looked like he’d never quite live up to his incredible potential.  Bibby’s post-Sac rejuvenation is one of the more over-looked stories of the year.  He’s been the team’s second best player all year (after Joe Johnson) and has carried the team in its’ Miami series despite JJ being MIA (get it?).  Bibby went from being outplayed by Beno Udrih (the worst starting PG in basketball) in Sacramento to being the second best player in this series.

Smith finally seems to be getting it.  Of course, the kid is still a headcase without a jumpshot.  But he plays great defense, runs down loose balls, and dunks on…well…everyone.

Down: Michael Beasley & Mario Chalmers, MIA:

So the Heat had the second pick in the NBA draft.  Who’d they pick, again?  The most NBA-ready player in the draft, you say?  Was he injured during their first round series?  No?  Sure was hard to nice him…

And where was the other rookie they had?  The kid who won the NCAA title game with his three?  He keeps fouling out?  Is 95-year-old Mike Bibby speeding faster than him from Bibbs’ wheelchair?

Dallas/San Antonio:

Jason Kidd, DAL & Tony Parker, SAS:

This series has traditionally been about Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, but this year’s was about the veteran PG’s.  Now mind you, Kidd is essentially a PG on offense only (there’s no way he’s chasing TP around for 40 minutes), but he’s still proving his worth.  Devin Harris’ emergence as an all-star put a black eye on Cuban’s trade.  But I’m pretty sure Kidd would trade an all-star nod to still be playing in May.  He still ran the offense, and most importantly, kept the scorers happy.  Dirk, Josh Howard, JJ Barea, and Jason Terry were the central scorers, but Kidd made sure they were all involved.

Meanwhile, Tony Parker went down in a blaze.  He averaged 28.6 in the San Antonio, good for second in all playoff series’, just behind Lebron’s 32. Unfortunately, after Duncan’s 20 & 8, Parker got no help whatsoever.  Part of that blame could go on him as the point guard, for failing to get his other guys involved, but most of it is just his teammates aren’t that good.  Especially without Ginobili. If there was any doubt that TP is a top 5 (at the very least) PG, it was erased in this series.

Down: Bruce Bowen, SAS & Dirk Nowitzki, DAL:

There was a time at which this would’ve been the heavily buzzed matchup of this series.  However it wasn’t to be here as both players failed to show up.  Bowen couldn’t stay on the court and Nowitzki couldn’t stay effective.  Ultimately it led to the downfall of the Spurs, but Dirk’s teammates had enough to lift up his struggles.  However things won’t get any easier for Dirk as he will draw Kenyon Martin in the next round.  And just as important, his key teammates will also get some strong defensive assignments: Kidd is in line to draw Chauncey Billups, while Jason Terry looks like he’ll draw Anthony Carter, and Josh Howard should get Dahntay Jones.

Houston/Portland:

Up: Brandon Roy, POR:

If there was any question regarding Roy’s newly-found superstar status, it was certainly answered in this series.  The Rockets have, arguably, the two best wing defenders in the league in Ron Artest and Shane Battier.  But it hasn’t mattered to Roy.  Artest called Roy the best player he’d ever covered.  I’ll tell you right now that he isn’t too far behind Kobe and Wade as the third best SG in the league.   Obviously, he doesn’t have the rings that they do, but there’s plenty of time for that.  The Rox very will may close out the Blazers at home tonight, but it won’t be without a fight from Roy.  He’s just too talented and too motivated.

Up: Yao Ming, HOU:

Scola and Brooks have played way better than anyone could’ve expected.  But its’ Yao who’s gained the most from the Rockets side.  It’s time to end this silly Yao Ming/Dwight Howard debate.  Yao is the best center in the world.  Period.  No commas.  No parentheses.  He’s the best, ok?  Live with it.  If the Rockets passed to him in the low post every single time, they’d win every game.  That’s it, he’s the best.  End of discussion.  Period.

Down: Greg Oden, POR:

He’s become sort of the joke of this series.  He’s been racking up fouls like he did in the regular season.  And with Outlaw struggling, you sort of wonder how good Portland would be a with a really good SF.  Maybe a SF like…..say, Kevin Durant?

Down: Ron Artest:

As everyone is enjoying talking about how much better the Rockets are playing without T-Mac. The little secret no one’s talking about is how little they’ve gotten out of, essentially T-Mac’s replacement, Ron Artest. You mean to tell me the Rockets wouldn’t have already won this series if T-Mac was out there? Even at 65%? Ron Artest has given you nothing in this series. Roy’s lighting him up on D, and Ron’s only scoring 13/game at 37% shooting. In his worst playoffs series, as a sixth man for Toronto, McGrady averaged 16.7 points on 39% shooting, his career playoff lows. As a starter, his worst series was two years ago when he dropped 25.3 pts on 39% shooting. Think the Rockets couldn’t use that right now? Along with his typical end-of-game heroics?

Orlando/Philly:

Up: Louis Williams & Thaddeus Young, PHI:

It is the general consensus that Philly wasn’t supposed to be close to Orlando.  In fact most experts picked a clean sweep.  However, it is also general consensus now that Philly will probably beat an Orlando team without Dwight Howard and Courney Lee, to force a game 7 in Orlando on Saturday.  Most of the credit for this surprise has gone to the team’s two Andre’s: Iguodala & Miller.  However the most efficient players have been Young and Williams, the second-tier players.  Basically, these two can score.  And yes, Miller is the veteran leader and Iguodala, well, it’s his team.   But it’s hard to ignore these two.  Young is averaging 13 on 47% shooting, while Williams is only 8 on 41 % shooting.  So it’s easy to see why they are overlooked.  But these two are leading the team with energy and defense that don’t usually show up in box scores.  But anyone watching the game can see their impact.

Down: Dwight Howard & Hedo Turkoglu, ORL

These two also moved down for different reasons.  Hedo (or “He Don’t” as  I’ve called him in his post-Kings days…which…by the way…is a nicknamed i ripped off from a Lakers fan) has been terrible in the series.  11.8 points on 33% shooting, while averaging 3 TO’s to 3 Assists and 3.4 fouls per game.  Just terrible.  Hedo’s playoffs have been a series of stinkers: 2-8 with four fouls in game one, a 3-10 night that was saved by his 9-11 from the line in game 2, a 2-5 night with 5 fouls and 5 turnovers in game 3,  a 8-11 breakout game in game 4 with 17 points, leading into a 3-14, 5 foul game in Game 5.

Dwight’s numbers, on the other hand, have been outstanding.  He’s been completely dominant and has made Sam Dalembert look like a kindergardener who just got his transformers stolen.  So with all of his dominance, why the need for the sucker punch in game 5?  That could end up costing the Magic the series.  That plus his fall on Courtney Lee rendered their most effective perimeter scorer out for the playoffs.  Altogether, the Magic could very well end up losing this series.  And while some of the blame will undoubtedly fall on Coach Stan Van Gundy.  The majority should fall on Howard.  He got himself kicked out of game 6.  He fell on Lee.  And he is going to have to make up for all of this with a monster game 7.

Boston/Chicago

Up: Ben Gordan, CHI & Rajon Rondo, BOS:

Other than maybe the Nuggets, these two have raised their respective stocks as much as anyone in the playoffs.  Rondo is leading an under-manned, beat up veteran team, and Gordon is keeping the inconsistent, young Bulls affloat.  He’s averaging 25 pts on 42% shooting in the playoffs.  And this is with a bad hammy.  He’s leading a Bulls team deeper into this series than anyone expected.  And, oh yeah, he’s in a contract year.

Rondo has been the unsung hero for the Celtics all year.  While it’s true that Pierce is still actually their best player, Rondo is a very close second, and has been even better than Pierce in this series.  How about 24.2 points on 51%(!!!) shooting to go with 10 dimes and 10 boards a game.  That’s right – Rajon Rondo is averaging a triple double in this series.  he may have passed Nelson and Harris as the elite young PG in the east.

Down: Eddie House & Stephon Marbury, BOS:

Nice performance off the bench from House and Marbury.  Combined, they are 15-50 from the field.  That’s 30%.  That’s terrible.  One would think that the Boston guards would have the advantage off of the bench.  But Kirk Hinrich is outplaying both of them.  If they don’t turn things around, the Celtics could have a long summer.

 

All-Stars

This year’s all-star picks are going to be more statistical, courtesy of my two favorite stats: 82games.com’s Roland Rating and ESPN’s J0hn Hollinger’s PER Rating.

Let’s Start with the West Guards:

Off the top of my head I’d probably go with Chris Paul, K.O.B.E., Ginobili, Chauncey Billups, and *duh-duh* Brandon Roy.  Let’s see what the stats guys say. These are all the players who rank out of the top 50 of each:

Top West Guards by PER:

1. Chris Paul  – 30.2 PER
2. Kobe Bryant – 24.95 PER
3. Brandon Roy – 24.6 PER
4. Tony Parker – 22.91 PER
5. Manu Ginobili – 21.91 PER
6. Chauncey Billups – 20.42 PER
7. Jason Terry – 19.98 PER
8. Kevin Martin – 18.80 PER
9. Steve Nash – 18.38 PER

Ok so we can delete K-Mart since he’s missed more than half of the season.  So far, I see nothing that makes me change my opinion.  I still give Billups and Ginobili over Parker just because Ginobili seems like the best player on that team and Billups has been so important to the Nuggets’ turnaround.  Let’s check the 82games:

1. Paul – 20.1
2. Roy – 11.4
3. Bryant – 11.2
4. Nash – 8.1
5. Ginobili – 7.5
6. Terry – 6.4
7. Billups – 5.7
8. Parker – 4.7
9. Martin – 4.5

So we have the same 9 guys in a different order. I think it’s pretty safe to call Paul and Bryant the starters and give Roy the first bench spot. Then the debate gets interesting. One thing that stands out to me at the moment is that Ginobili, despite being the Spurs’ best player, has only played 37% of the team’s minutes. I think this calls for him to be thrown out with Martin’s injury problems. So we’re down to Nash, Terry, Billups, and Parker fighting for 2 spots.

Nash – 18.38 PER + 8.1 Roland = 26.48 Total
Terry – 19.98 PER + 6.4 Roland = 26.2 Total
Billups – 20.42 PER + 5.7 Roland = 26.17 Total
Parker – 22.91 PER + 4.7 Roland = 27.61 Total

If you want to get too technical, Parker and Nash should go, but their stats are essentially identical, so we’re going with the two players on better teams: Billups and Parker.  Sorry Nash and Terry, maybe next year when your teams are better. As for who is actually going to make it, T-Mac is leading CP3 for the second spot so that pushes everyone down a notch. My feeling is the Spurs get spurned again and CP3, Roy, Nash, and Billups probably make it – with Billups going as an injury replacement for T-Mac. I don’t see Terry going, so if anyone else gets hurt we’re probably seeing Ginobili.

Now to the West Forwards:

PER:

1.Carlos Boozer – 24.77

1. Tim Duncan – 24.46
2. Dirk Nowitzki – 24.01
3. Al Jefferson – 22.38
4. Amare Stoudemire – 22.26
5. Pau Gasol – 21.76
6. Paul Millsap – 20.65
7. Zach Randolph – 19.57
8. Kevin Durant – 19.39
9. Andrei Kirilenko – 19.16
10. Brendan Wright – 19.08
11. Nene – 19.04
12. LaMarcus Aldridge – 18.36
13. David West – 18.60

One curious note about this list: No Carmelo Anthony. Now to the Roland ratings:

1. Kirilenko – 11.2
2. Nowitzki – 10.9
3. West – 9.2
4. Millsap – 7.5
5. Stoudemire – 7.4
6. Lamar Odom – 7.0
7.Aldridge – 6.9
8. Duncan – 6.7
9. Nene – 5.9
10. Hakim Warrick – 5.9
11. Anthony – 5.7
12. Jefferson – 5.4
13. Ron Artest – 4.6

A couple of things strike me here, first that Duncan and Jefferson are so low on the Roland Ratings. Also, I would’ve never guessed D-West to be so high. Also, this re-inforces my point that Kirilenko should be an all-star. But to sum things up, Nowitzki and Stoudemire deserve to be your starters. And while neither of them will end up there, they both should make the all-star game pretty handidly, so that’s nice. Filling the bench is a bit more of a stretch. Millsap actually looks the best of the rest with Kirilenko and Duncan right after him. So those are your deserving All-Stars: Nowizki, Stoudemire, Millsap, Kirilenko, and Duncan. We’ll go with David West as the sixth in case of injury. However I think Gasol actually gets the call, since the Lakers have been so good and he has the next best stats. Millsap and Kirilenko probably don’t make it, but Carmelo’s actually going to start or make it strictly off his name so D-West stays the alternate again.

The center position isn’t much of a question. Yao Ming is 2.3 Roland points ahead of Camby and 3.3 ahead of Shaq, though Shaq does beat him by .52 in PER. Camby is more than 2 points behind both in PER. So Yao will probably go and no one else, but both Shaq and Camby are more than deserving if either of them make it as reserves, since Yao is always voted as the starter. Unfortunately, Shaq’s Suns are in 7th in the West and are not likely to get three all-stars if Nash goes and if the coaches have to choose between Shaq and Nash it’s probably Nash at this point. And Camby’s team is so terrible he’s not likely to be rewarded.

But just to make things fun we have West, Shaq, Camby, Terry, Nash, and let’s throw Al Jefferson in there as guys right below the all-stars competing for our 12th roster spot.

Terry – 19.98 PER + 6.4 Roland = 26.2 Total
Nash – 18.38 PER + 8.1 Roland = 26.48 Total
Shaq – 23.56 PER + 6.8 Roland = 30.36 Total
Camby – 20.89 PER + 7.8 Roland = 28.69 Total
Jefferson – 22.38 PER + 5.4 Roland = 27.78 Total
West – 18.6 PER + 9.2 Roland = 27.8 Total

As you can see, Shaq wins this pretty handidly. Camby comes in a close second and becomes the first alternate with Nash as the guard alternate – we’ll even say that David West is the third alternate.

So here is our Western Conference All-Stars (starters in bold):

G Chris Paul, NOH
G Kobe Bryant, LAL
F Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
F Amare Stoudemire, PHO
C Yao Ming, HOU
G Brandon Roy, POR
G Chauncey Billups, DEN
G Tony Parker
F Tim Duncan, SAS
F Andrei Kirilenko
F Paul Millsap
C Shaquille O’Neal

In reality, the All-stars will look like this:
G Kobe Bryant
G Tracy McGrady
G Chris Paul
F Tim Duncan
F Carmelo Anthony
C Yao Ming
G Brandon Roy
G Steve Nash
G Chauncey Billups
F Amare Stoudemire
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Pau Gasol
C Shaquille O’Neal

To the East we go, starting with the Guards.  These are our PER stats:

1. Dwayne Wade – 28.87
2. Devin Harris – 23.63
3. Jameer Nelson – 21.15
4. Vince Carter – 20.82
5. Joe Johnson – 19.05
6. Mike Bibby – 18.94
7. Michael Redd – 18.94
7. Rajon Rondo – 18.9
8. Jose Calderon – 18.94
9. Andre Miller – 18.25

Yes this is correct, Harris and Nelson are 2 & 3, deservedly so.

Roland Ratings:
1. Wade 19.5
2. Ray Allen 11.2
3. Johnson 8.9
4. Nelson 8.6
5. Redd 8.0
5. Carter 6.8
6. Delonte West 6.5
7. Rondo 5.7
8. Harris 5.6
9. Ramon Sessions 4.8

Wade is the easy pick as the first starter. The real surprise is Nelson as his backcourt mate. After that it’s a pretty tight race with Allen, Johnson, Vince-sanity, Rondo, and Harris. Three of the five can make it, two will get left out. Let’s take a look at the race:

Allen – 17.66 PER + 11.2 Roland = 28.86
Johnson – 19.05 + 8.9 = 28.95
Carter – 20.82 + 6.8 = 27.62
Rondo – 18.9 + 5.7 = 24.6
Harris – 23.63 + 5.6 = 29.23

So Rondo clearly is eliminated, but after that it looks like the last man out is Carter. Not bad, since Harris has been a little better than him and the Nets don’t deserve to have two all-stars. So Wade and Nelson are our starters with Harris, Allen and Johnson as his backups. But the difference between Nelson and Harris is so small that it could change after any game. I think AI is going to win the second starting spot which pushes everyone down a spot, eliminating Allen. Nelson and Harris should be quite a nice story going into this game.

The Eastern Forwards’ PER:
1. Lebron James – 31.59
2. Chris Bosh – 23.38
3. Danny Granger – 22.16
4. Kevin Garnett – 21.25
5. Marreese Spreights – 20.44
6. Antawn Jamison – 20.38
7. Andre Iguodala – 18.4
8. Caron Butler – 18.24

And on the Roland side;

1. James 24.2
2. Iguodala 10.2
3. Granger 10.2
4. Garnett 10.1
5. Bosh 8.3
6. Rashard Lewis 8.0
7. Hedo Turkoglu 4.9
8. Paul Pierce 4.6

So here our top 5 is pretty clear cut. The only question is, after James who starts?

Let’s look at the numbers:
Bosh – 23.38 + 8.3 = 32.18
Granger – 22.16 + 10.2 = 32.36
Garnett – 21.25 + 10.1 = 31.35
Iguodala – 18.4 + 10.2 = 28.6

So by a nose, Granger starts and we start two tweener-small forwards. With Bosh, Garnett, and Iggs backing them up. Now for the actual team I’d probably have to say Pierce makes it and Iguodala gets pushed off as an alternate.

Which leads us to…

Dwight Howard is the center. No question. Big Z is a clear-cut #2 as well. But I think for the actual game, Iggy gets his roster spot. Plus Z is hurt anyway.

Our Deserving Eastern Conference All Stars (Starters in Bold):
G Dwayne Wade, MIA
G Jameer Nelson, ORL
F Lebron James, CLE
F Danny Granger, IND
C Dwight Howard, ORL
G Devin Harris, NJN
G Ray Allen, BOS
G Joe Johnson, ATL
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
F Chris Bosh, TOR
F Andre Iguodala, PHI
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE

And the team that will likely make it:

G Allen Iverson, DET
G Dwayne Wade, MIA
F Lebron James, CLE
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
C Dwight Howard, ORL
G Jameer Nelson, ORL
G Devin Harris, NJN
G Joe Johnson, ATL
F Paul Pierce, BOS
F Chris Bosh, TOR
F Danny Granger, IND
F Andre Iguodala, PHI

Snubs:
So here we go with whose going to get snubbed. The two Jazz potential All-Stars are going to be spurned by the more popular Gasol and Anthony, while T-Mac’s winning the West Vote won’t probably mean much as he looks like he’ll miss the game anyway. In the East, Pierce essentially cancels out Allen, and Iverson takes Z’s spot. Not too much to complain about, though I’d bet Jerry Sloan’ll be pissed. What’s impressive is Millsap and Terry’s success as reserves.

 

When they reminisce over you…..

So it has been brought to my attention that Nuggets fans are criticizing the trade for Renaldo Balkman. It strikes me as odd that people still haven’t figured out that this guy can play. To prove my point, I think it’s time to revisit the Lottery of the 2006 NBA Draft. If it were to be re-done, how would it go?

1. Toronto picks Brandon Roy, G (Washington) [actual selection: 6, Portland]

Think the Raptors wouldn’t like to have Roy now?  Now that the swingman position is their weakest link as a team?  Sure Bargnani is a nice option to have as a sixth man, but a first overall pick?  Roy is the only all-star from this draft class thus far.  Though two or three of the other guys could end up being there.  But Roy is hands down the first pick overall if we were to re-tool this draft knowing what we know now.

2. Portland picks LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C (Texas) [actual selection: 2, Chicago – but dealt to Portland immediately]

That Portland ended up with the two best players from this draft is not particularly surprising, knowing what we now know about their GM.  Neither is the fact that Aldridge, who was picked second, is the second best player of his class today.  What is surprising is how much better he’s been than the man he was traded for – fourth pick Tyus Thomas.

3. Charlotte picks Rudy Gay, SG/SF (UConn) [actual selection: 8, Memphis]

Everything Charlotte was looking for out of their three position – a young player with huge upside who can score in bucketloads – ended up being taken 5 spots lower.  Gay still has the most pure talent out of this draft class, and it’s still mind-boggling how he fell to eight.  We knew how talented he was then! Of course the guy that Michael Jordan actually did select is probably going to be out of the league this offseason.

4. Chicago picks Rajon Rondo, PG (Kentucky) [actual selection: 21, Boston]

At the time the draft was done, I personally considered Rondo and Marcus Williams the two best points in the draft by far.  It absolutely shocked me how far both of them fell.  Especially considering how high the previous class’ points were taken.  So it doesn’t surprise me in the least that Rondo is the first one in this class to get a ring (there have been only two titles since this draft – and San Antonio, who won the other, didn’t have a first round pick).  He is the ultimate team-first point guard.  His main concern was that he couldn’t shoot.  Well, he still can’t.  But he sure can bling!

5. Atlanta picks Daniel Gibson, PG (Texas) [actual selection: 42, Cleveland]

This is probably the best draft pick that Cleveland’s made since LeBron.  Plucking Boobie Gibson out of the second round was a perfect set-up.  He is an almost-perfect role player alongside LeBron.  Sure he’s not going to wow anyone on either side of the ball.  But boy can he shoot.  And in a weak class, he’s probably the fifth best player.  Especially for an Atlanta team that he would fit perfectly on next to Joe Johnson, who is sort of a poor-man’s Lebron.

6. Portland picks Randy Foye, PG (Villanova) [actual selection, 7, Minnesota]

Foye is one of the few solid starters in this draft.   He gets the nod over Brewer here because Portland – while they have a lot of points, none are established – has three established players on the wings.  Even without Roy (who in this case would be in Toronto), the wing isn’t really a need.  Point guard, however, is really their only hole.  But this draft was secretly about how loaded Portland was beginnig to become.

7. Minnesota picks Ronnie Brewer, SG (Arkansas) [actual selection, 14, Utah]

Brewer is a perfect fit in Utah, and he would answer one of Minnesota’s many holes.  Actually, I put him here because he’s the best player available and Minnesota has holes everywhere but the post.  Brewer, very much in the Rondo-mold, does not shoot well but does just about everything else very well.

8. Memphis picks Leon Powe, PF (Cal) [actual selection, 49, Boston]

Everyone remembers Portland’s draft, but Boston had a quietly significant draft as well.  Powe and Rondo turned out to be key components on last year’s title team.  Powe was, essentially, the team’s first big man off the bench.  With Posey gone, he will probably become a more pure sixth man.  To be honest, the team’s most effective offensive lineup is sliding KG to center, and throwing Powe in at the four.  He is, very quietly, one of the most efficient bigs in the league.

9. Golden State picks Paul Millsap, PF (Lou. Tech) [actual selection: 47, Utah]

See how Golden State actually picked Patrick O’Bryant in this spot?  See how he did absolutely nothing?  Now imagine Millsap here.  They’d probably be in the playoffs last season.

10. Seattle picks Renaldo Balkman, PF (South Carolina) [actual selection: 20]

While everyone hated on it at the time, Isiah actually made a very good pick.  In this scenario, knowing that they’d get Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Westbrook down the road, Balkman is a very good hustle-guy compliment to form a very good nucleus.  Here, your 1-4’s are set for the next 10 years (barring injury).  So do i think the Nuggets could use him.  He’s sort of like a more athletic Najera.  And in this poor of a draft, he is one of the 10 best players.

11. Orlando picks Andrea Bargnani, F (Italy) [actual selection: 1, Toronto]

This feels like the right spot for Bargnani.  He is a very good player at times.  But he’s inconsistent and probably a bottom-rotation guy at best right now.  He still does have some upside, but he hasn’t shown why we should believe he’ll ever quite get there.  In this case, he backs up Rashard Lewis, and he doesn’t need to bring it every night.

12. New Orleans picks Jordan Farmar, G (UCLA) [actual selection: 26]

Sure they’d just picked a PG the year before, but they’re quite loaded anyway, and this is a horrible draft.  Farmar is by far the next best player on the board.  He probably backs up both guard positions and allows them to let Pargo leave this current offseason.

In retrospect, the complete flops:

3. Adam Morrison to Charlotte (Gonzaga) – Though he still seems to have a following, he sucks.  If he’d shown any flashes at all his rookie season, J-Rich would probably still be a Warrior.

4. Tyus Thomas to Portland (then traded to Chicago)(LSU) – It’s funny how Thomas is a second banana to Big Baby on a Final Four run, but Thomas gets all the draft-hype and gets picked #4 while Davis goes in the second round the next year.  Then Big Baby ends up the better pro.  But there’s home for Tyus, he’s still very young and raw.  But he seems to have fallen out of favor in Chicago and it might be time to send him packing.

5. Sheldon Williams to Atlanta (now with Sacramento)(Duke) – It’s funny that the bottom three of the top 5 all ended up sucking.  And the top pick wasn’t particularly impressive either.  now that‘s a shitty draft.

9. Patrick O’Bryant to Golden State (now with Boston)(Bradley) – You’ve gotta be pretty bad for a team as big-man-starved as the Warriors to completely give up on you

I’m reserving judgement on the last 3 lottery picks of that year (Saer Sene, JJ Reddick, and Hilton Armstrong) just because for one reason or another (injuries for Sene, being behind all-stars for Reddick and Armstrong), they’ve had the deck stacked ahead of them.  So it’s not really fair to judge what they can/can’t do just yet.  But if I was a betting man, I’d think all of them turn out to be journeymen, with Sene probably out of the league quite soon.