I pop off like a mobster boss…..

The heading has nothing to do with this post. I just have that line stuck in my head. I’ll get to the Whole 9 later, but I haven’t posted anything in a week, so here’s something I’ve been wanting to post.

The 30 Best SF’s In The NBA

First some explanations: no one who has played under 35% of their team’s minutes will make the list (Sorry Donte Greene! You’ll make it next time!). The bottom 10 just get a little blurb, the middle 10 get a blurb and a pic, the top 10 get a full explanation. Let’s Go!

30. James Posey, NOH: Posey has been terrible for the Hornets, and has lost a lot of minutes to rookie Marcus Thornton.
29. Trenton Hassell, NJN: Forced into heavy minutes due injuries, Hassell has been among the league’s worst regulars for a few years now.
28. Matt Barnes, ORL:Barnes is actually sort of impressive in making this list. While technically the backup, he’s basically splitting this position with…
27. Mickael Pietrus, ORL:Pietrus and Barnes are essentially giving Orlando league-average starters minutes at the 3 for the whole game. Not a bad combination. This is a good thing for the Magic.
26. Wilson Chandler, NYK:Chandler showed some promise towards the end of last year, but has been a disaster this season. His defense has been passable, but he hasn’t been able to get any offensive production whatsoever.
25. Al Thornton, LAC:Thornton has started to heat up recently after starting the season with 8 straight clunkers. But he’s well on his way back up.
24. Peja Stojakovic, NOH:Another disappoointing start this year for Peja. It ain’t hard to tell with him tho’: he’s a shooter, when he isn’t making jump shots he’s not really helping you. And he’s shooting a career low percentage.
23. Michael Finley, SAS:Pretty much left for dead after last season, Finley’s quietly assumed the backup role and helped Richard Jefferson fit in well with the Spurs.
22. Ryan Gomes, MIN:Another guy who got off to a horrendous start before turning it on lately, Gomes has started to take control of the T-Wolf offense with Big Al struggling.
21. Quentin Richardson, MIA:Q is in the middle of a bit of a bounce-back year after being left for dead and traded 4 times in one off-season. He’s in a good situation playing with old pal Dwizzle.

20. Jared Dudley, PHX: The first of a few WTF names on the list, Dudley has quietly emerged as a very strong bench player for the Suns.  He’s added a scrappy element to the team that was obviously missing from the team before.

19. Shane Battier, HOU:I’ve explained many times that Shane’s the best defender in the league. But his offense has slipped to a point where he’s becoming a true Bruce Bowen clone. But his on the ball defense combined with Trevor Ariza’s long arms and athleticism on defense have made the Rockets quite possibly the best defensive team in the league…..And this is without their 7-and-a-half foot center.

18. Marvin Williams, ATL: The main defender on a Hawks team that has jumped into the elite of the Eastern Conference thus far, Williams is an elite specialist in that area. And we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now, but his offense is starting to sink to Battier/Bowen levels.

17. Grant Hill, PHX: Grant’s certainly been tremendous in helping Phoenix with all of the dirty work/little things. They’re also doing a good job of cutting his minutes down with contributions from Dudley.

16. Caron Butler, WAS: I’m willing to throw Tough Juice a bit of a bone for his season thus far as it seems he’s been playing with nagging injuries and has struggled to fit into Flip Saunders’ offense thus far. But what’s saddening about this situation was to see Gil call him out . Butler’s always been supportive of Gil through all of the Hibbaci’s injuries. And everyone loves Tough Juice’s game while Gil’s can be pretty selfish at times. These two need to get on the same page, obviously. But that seems to be Antawn Jamison’s role: to keep everyone on the same page. We’ll see how things turn out in Washington.  But I think Butler’s still one of the top 5 SF’s in the league, but his season thus far has been terrible.  But to be fair, so has Gil’s.

15. Richard Jefferson, SAS:After a summer in which he made the news for a few of the wrong reasons, RJ has thankfully kept his news this year on the court. But the Spurs haven’t been as good as expected, and RJ’s a big reason for that. He’s slowly becoming accustomed to the Spur way of life, and that’s going to take some time. But I think both he and the Spurs will be better off after going through these growing pains.

14. Stephen Jackson, CHA: It’s been a weird season for Captain Jack, who was exiled by the Warriors to Charlotte.  Though from now one he’ll probably be known as a SG in Charlotte.   But since his arrival, the ‘Cats are on a run. Maybe, just maybe the situation will work out for Jack. Actually, I think it probably well. Jack and Pop had a great relationship, and I expect similar of his situation with Larry Brown. And players always leave the Warriors to get better, don’t they?

13. Omri Casspi, SAC:The second of our WTF names on this list is Omri Casspi, a guy who’s as good as anyone in the league at doing anything that’s asked of him. Think Shane Battier before he became just a defender. The guy gets to the rack, hustles, plays D, rebounds, and is an excellent passer. It should also be noted that Donte Greene would have made the top 10 if he’d played enough minutes. The SF spot was a complete black hole for the team last season, this year it seems to be a strength. Casspi’s currently starting there and Greene is switching between the 2 and the 3 until K-Mart is back from injury. The Kings have been the surprise team of the year so far, and I just hope it continues as they’re sitting pretty at 8-8.

12. Gerald Wallace, CHA: Wallace and Jack are essentially both wings, as LB’s playing two wings instead of a typical SG and SF. Wallace, as we know, is a great weak-side help defender. He uses his unreal athleticism to grab an un-real amount of rebounds for a SF. The ‘Cats are looking pretty good since they got Jack.

11. Hedo Turkoglu, TOR: I was one of the many people who didn’t like this signing, but it seems to have worked out quite well for all parties. With Calderon struggling a bit, Turkoglu has moved in to the spot as the second banana behind Chris Bosh for a Raptors squad that is overachieving a bit.

10. Corey Maggette, GSW: While the Warriors have been up-and-down this year, Maggette is having a career season. He’s playing solid d, blocking shots, grabbing rebounds and shooting out of his mind. My main criticism with Bad Porn’s game has been that he takes some bad shots, has bad court vision, and doesn’t do anything but score. Well he’s shooting a career high 51%, cutting down on the 3’s, and has his lowest turnover numbers in 10 years. His scoring has actually gone down, but his scoring efficiency is way up. He and Monta have really taken off since Jack was dealt, and it’s perhaps been a blessing in disguise for a team that was just in terrible shape altogether.

9. Danny Granger, IND:That he’s in the top 10 isn’t too surprising, but Granger’s been a bit of a different beast this year than last. Most of his scoring numbers are down (including shooting percentage, which is way down), but both rebounds and assists are up. He’s also turning the ball over and fouling more. He was an easy top 5 here last year, but while he’s still a superior player, he’s not quite what he was last year thus far.

8. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL:Probably the biggest WTF name on here, Ilyasova has been extremely good for a Milwaukee team for which he doesn’t even start. He’s shown a great presence to do all the little things and helps Young Money on the high-pick and rolls with his ability to shoot from the outside/mid-range. But since Andrew Bogut went down, he’s really been cranking out the scoring as well. He’s also grabbing the boards like crazy. He and Bogut have been the main beneficiaries of Brandon Jennings’ incredible rookie season thus far. The question would come down to who’s been more surprising? Ilyasova or Casspi? What it really comes down to is their rookie point guards.

7. Rudy Gay, MEM:While he’s always had the potential to be this good, Gay’s finally starting to put it together in this, his fourth season. He’s scoring a career high 20.7, shattering his career high for shooting (50%!), and is ahead of his career high in rebounds (6.9). He and Marc Gasol have established themselves as the best players on the Grizz (like I’ve said before, OJ Mayo is basically just a chucker). He’s fun to watch as he just comes out of nowhere with acrobatic dunks and such. He and Wallace are in the top 5 most athletic guys in the league.

6. Paul Pierce, BOS:An interesting question that’s come up recently is where The Truth falls in the hierarchy of Celtics history. I think a lot of it has to do with how they do this season. If they can come up with another ring (which I think they will), he HAS to be in the Celtic top 3 of all-time, with Bird and Russell. If not, I’d say he’s top 5, behind Bird, Russel, Hondo, and Cousy.

5. Ron Artest, LAL:I must say that I did not see this coming. Ron Ron has been perfect in LA. Hes done all the little things, and Phil has even had to talk to him about being “too unselfish.” While I’m personally never going to be a big fan of his again (players are banished from my fan-dom when they join the Lakers), I must admit that it’s a wonderful thing to see for Ron’s career.

4. Luol Deng, CHI:I had no idea what to expect from Deng this season. After the Bulls did so well without him in the playoffs last year, and then losing Ben Gordon in Free Agency, who knew what would become of Deng, whom the Bulls wouldn’t give up in a potential Kobe trade a couple of seasons ago. But he’s been an overwhelming success and he’s the best player on the team right now (yes, that includes Derrick Rose).

3. Kevin Durant, OKC: The top 3 are almost inter-changeable but after that there’s a big drop off for number 4. Here we’re going to slot KD in at third because of the lack of team success….at least for now. We’re really being picky in the top 3. KD’s only averaging 27.4 and 7.2 in only his third season at the tender age of 21. It should also be noted that everyone thought Oklahoma City would be good, but they seem they’re even better than we thought. Russell Westbrook looks like a stud at PG, we know KD is a superstar, Jeff Green’s still playing the Pippen to KD’s Jordan, and James Harden looks much better than i expected. Either way this is a team to be reckoned with. Slot them with Portland and Sacto as the future powers of the West.

2. Carmelo Anthony, DEN: Again, we’re being picky here, but I gave Melo the edge on KD because of his performance in the playoffs last year. Really we’re talking about 3 potential MVP guys here. So they’re really 1, 1a, and 1b. But ‘Melo has turned that corner and is one of the 5 best players in the league now, pretty much unanimously agreed upon. He’s averaging a career high 31 points (which leads the NBA), and shooting a career high (49.3%). And the Nuggs are in first place, but are in a dog fight for the Northwest with Portland, Utah, and OKC. Ultimately, one of those teams will probably not make the playoffs this year, but don’t count on that team being the Nuggets.

1. Lebron James, CLE: The best player in the league. Period. Kobe’s not even that close anymore. I don’t like talking too much about Lebron because it’s just so cliche to do so. But since we’re talking about him anyway, I think the NBA has an upper 8 elite players and everyone after is pretty mixed: Lebron, Nash, Wade, Kobe, Melo, Dwight Howard, CP3, and KD. If you really want to, you can throw Deron Williams and Tim Duncan in there too to make it an even 10. But after that it’s pretty mixed depending on who you’d ask. Some would put KG in there, but I think I’d probably have him third on his own team (behind Rondo and Pierce). Brandon Jennings? Not yet…Derrick Rose? Not ready…. Bosh? Too inconsistent… Billups? He’s having a down year…. One of the Spurs would probably come next, but which one? Who’s better between Parker and Ginobili. We’ll see how these questions are answered as the year goes on.

 

The Whole 9….

This, by the way, will be a re-occurring Monday feature. Anyway, the 9 biggest stories of the weekend, through my eyes:

1. Steelers big Loss (es?)
My Steelers lost again, this time to the Chiefs in OT.   But even more important than an embarrassing loss to the worst team in the league: Ben might have suffered a concussion.  If he did, we’re screwed.  Charlie Batch somehow broke his wrist.  And Dennis Dixon would be our starting QB for next week against the Lions.

The game was lost because of shitty special teams, a defense that just never could corral Matt Cassel’s receivers, and a running game that could never quite get started.  Ike Taylor had a chance for a pick that would’ve stopped the eventual game-winning drive, but whiffed at it.  This is what separates Ike from being in that elite crew of CB’s.  Nnamdi Asomugha or Champ Bailey would’ve not only intercepted that, but probably taken it to the house for a pick-6. Even watching Charles Tillman and his ability to knock out fumbles. If we’re strictly talking about coverage, then there’s no one better than Ike. But if you’re talking about a guy who QB’s are scared to throw that direction, Ike isn’t that guy. The worst that happens is an incompletion.

2.The Kings lost a back-to-back.

The Kings lost a back-to-back over the weekend at Dallas on Friday and at Houston on Saturday. As I mentioned earlier, the Kings were Tyreke-less against the Rockets but probably still should have won.  So without their two best players, the Kings barely lost to a (in my estimation) playoff-bound team.  Not bad, but the Kings record is still pretty ugly at 5-7.  Luckily (perhaps?), they get Memphis tonight.  A team with two overrated wingmen, a numbers & ball hog in the post, and a bunch of crap.  So ideally they can get back on the right track, and if Tyreke is back: even better.

3. The Incredibly Strange Saga of Tracy McGrady Continues
Now T-Mac wants to be re-activated and the team doesn’t want him to. It’s clear why they wouldn’t want him: they could get an injury exception if he doesn’t play. But what they are ignoring is that when he’s on, he’s a superstar. One of the 7 or 8 players in the NBA when he’s on. This team is current probably the sixth or seventh best team in the West as currently constructed, without Yao. With T-Mac, they could easily challenge the top. The problem is, what would they do with him? Do they want to discourage Trevor Ariza from playing as well as he is? He’s been the team’s best player thus far. The other wing is manned by Shane Battier, who I’m sure would sit if needed. But the team isn’t going to bench the best defender in the league. This is going to get ugly real quick. Not a good situation.

4. Fiddy Flops
50’s latest album Before I Self Destruct has been targeted for 150k in sales for the first week. A week after taunting Rick Ross by faux-crying over Triple C’s first week numbers, 50 is ironically now changing his stance on sales. What a shocker. 50’s done. Let’s move on. Why do we keep giving podiums to this guy?

5. Lions Win Thriller
It was the “Bad Bowl,” a game we had mocked for weeks. But strangely enough, it was the best game of the day. The Lions beat the Browns, 38-37 on a last second touchdown pass by Matthew Stafford, and the ensuing extra point by Jason Hanson. Stafford threw 5 touchdowns total, and put together 422 yards in the air. His counter part, Brady Quinn, threw for 304 yards and 4 TDs. Calvin Johnson caught 7 passes for 161 yards and a TD. No defense whatsoever, but great television.

6. Wale Flop Fallout
This is really a story from last week, but internet heads take notice: Your two over-hyped artists this year (Wale and Slaughterhouse) both flopped. It is well known that you do not buy albums, but if you do not start giving some sort of support to your artists, no one is going to care about catering to you.

7. The Dubs are A Mess
More on this story later, but now Nellie’s sick too!

8. The Niners are a Passing Team?
Mike Singletary should have been paying attention last week. The Niners tried to run the ball, and fell behind 23-3. Then the team let Alex Smith air it out and almost pulled off a stunning comeback, before running out of time and losing 30-24. This would lead me to the conclusion that with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Alex Smith, perhaps the team should be throwing the ball. Don’t forget Josh Morgan, everyone’s pick as a breakout player for this season, and Isaac Bruce, one of the best WR’s in history. Frank Gore is one of the better receiving RBs in football, and they have Joe Staley, one of the best LTs in football, to protect Smith’s blind side.

9. KG’s Shot
In perhaps the only basketball game worth talking about, the Knicks almost pulled the upset of the mighty Celtics at MSG. Unfortunately, KG hit the game winning shot as time expired to back the Truth’s 33 an pull out the win. Too bad for the Knicks, they really suck.

 

Dime’s Fantasy Finals Matchups

Basketball websites always has these gimmicky user-involved tournaments. Balls Don’t Lie is probably the king of these. But the best I’ve come across is Dime Mag’s Fantasy Finals. In fact I like these so much, I decided to post my thoughts on their early matchups.

2008 Lakers Vs. 1995 Magic

In Dime’s rules, everyone’s healthy and the older team has home court. Now personally, I have a somewhat low opinion of last year’s Lakers team, at least historically speaking. Fish is/was washed up. His last great year was with Utah. And I say “great” because Fish is one of the most underrated players of my lifetime. Played great D, hit clutch threes, Kobe and Shaq both trusted him, Phil trusted him. Vlad just sucked anyway. Ariza hadn’t really had his 2009 breakout year. Bynum’s soft. And Gasol needs to demand the ball more. Odom’s inconsistent. At least Vujacic and Farmar were much better last year. And they had Turiaf. Come to think of it, with the exception of Ariza, everyone on the Lakers was better last year.

This Magic team was one of my favorite NBA Finals losers. They had Shaq entering his prime, Penny in his dead-prime (which only lasted like 3 years). Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott playing out of their respective minds. Horace Grant giving it one last shot, and Brian Shaw doing all those little Brian Shaw-things. But their bench was very weak after Shaw.

The key to this series would be Odom. If he shows up every game, the Lakers probably win in 5 or 6. But since I have never seen him do that (even in Miami and with the Clippers – the playoffs were what made Wade and Brand the number one guys on those teams), I don’t think he does it here. I’d say if Kobe gets a 10 in this series, Penny’s probably an 9.5. Shaq’s a 10, Bynum’s probably a 6. I’d give Gasol a 10 if he was demanding the ball move – the dude has a sick arsenal of post moves. But since he’s so lax, he gets an 8, Ho Grant was standing on one leg at that point, he gets a 5. Since Penny and Kobe would guard each other, it’s washed up Fish vs. pussy Anderson. Fortunately it wasn’t until after 95 (when he missed the free throws) that Anderson went into a complete funk. But here he should have enough to barely edge Fish, say…..7-6. In the Vlad/Scott matchup we’ll call it even since Scott’s much more deadly, but Vlad has the size advantage, 7.5 each. The bench is where Odom comes in. I’ll give this to the Lakers, but only barely. When Odom doesn’t show up, it’s basically even. So we’ll say 8-7. Coaching-wise, Phil gets it 9-8 over Brian Hill. Totals? 46.5 for Orlando, 46.5 for the Lakers. Dead even. I’ll go with Orlando in 7. Because we know that Shaw shows up, we don’t know about Odom.  Plus the Magic get homecourt.

1998 Bulls Vs. 2007 Spurs

This is closer than you think. The most dominant NBA team of all-time goes up against possibly the most boring dynasty of all-time. At that point, Ron Harper was 2005 Derek Fisher. And Tony Parker kills him, we’ll say 9-7. MJ probably guards Ginobili, but Bowen probably guards him. We’ll say MJ gets a 10, because even though that’s got to be tiring, MJ’s sort of…well he’s the best player ever. Ginobili probably guards Pippen. So we’ll say Ginobili’s tired but still manages a 7.5. Bowen manages to be a solid 7, and Pippen’s a 9 here. Duncan gets a 10 while Rodman gets an 8, good matchup. And both of the terrible centers get 5’s because it’s really the sixth men who get play. The coaches are even at 10, but the Spurs pull the advantage off the bench with Horry, Finley and Barry over Kukoc and Kerr, 8-6. 55 for the Bulls, 54.5 for the Spurs. Bulls in 7.

2006 Heat vs. 2001 Sixers

This is a fun matchup. It’s Allen Iverson in his best season vs. Dwayne Wade in his I’m-better-than-MJ season.  One thing sticks out, Wade can sort of guard Iverson.  Iverson has no shot at Wade.  Wade’s almost as fast and about half a foot taller.  They have similar games in those seasons, but Wade is worlds better in efficiency.  Plus he has more help.  If Wade gets a 10, and Iverson a 9, the rest of this matchup is pretty one-sided.  Jason Williams, in his last effective season, beats snow, 8-7.  ‘Toine, also in his last effective season, bests George Lynch, 7.5-6.  For fun, we’ll call Haslem/Hill a tie, even though common sense would go with Haslem, 7-7.  And Shaq bests Deke, 8-6.5.  Coaching is an even 9, and the Heat’s bench still had James Posey, ‘Zo,  and GP, while the Sixers counter with Aaron McKie, a not-yet-developed Raja Bell, and a bunch of stiffs.  Heat, 9-6.  For a final total of 57.5 for a strong Heat team, and 50.5 for the Sixers.  I think the Heat sweep this.  Fun Series, but not too long.

2004 Pistons vs. 1994 Knicks

Bad matchup for the Knicks. The Pistons counter the Knicks strengths too well. Chauncey dominates Harper, 9-7. I think Rip pulls out ahead of Starks, 8.5-8. Tayshaun edges Smith 7.5-7. Rasheed pulls Oakley out of the paint, and beats him 8-7. While Ewing can only muster a 10-8.5 edge over Ben. Plus that Pistons team was deep. The Knicks’ strength was their depth, but this Pistons team was even deeper. The Pistons rolled out Corliss Williamson, Elden Campbell, Lindsey Hunter, Mike James, and Mehmet Okur. Picture that. Okur, entering his prime, was the 10th man on this team. And he’s been an all-star in this league. Anthony Mason and Greg Anthony give the Knicks the edge in a lot of series, but here they lose 10-9 Though we just called the Pat Riley/Larry Brown matchup a tie, so we’ll stick with that, 9-9. Brown gets his revenge here, 60.5-57. I think the Pistons take this in 6, they weren’t too good at breaking team’s backs, if you remember.

2008 Celtics vs. 1993 Suns

Wow, giving this a quick eyeball, it looks like the best matchup yet. KG’s best squad vs. Chuck’s best squad. Rondo/KJ. Majerle/Ray Ray. I’m giving KJ the PG edge, 9-8. But remember, KJ disappeared in the finals that year. Rondo does not disappear. He’s consistently annoying you. But KJ was better. Ray Ray gets the same slight edge on Majerle, 9-8. Mainly because, none of these guys could stop each other. But Ray Ray’s slightly better. He might be the best pure shooter I’ve ever seen. Pierce/Dumas is where the Celtics probably win the series. Pierce gets this, 10-7. Dumas was slightly underrated in memory, but also slightly overrated at the time because his numbers were better than he was. Mainly because of the system he played in – like a mid-90’s Leandro Barbosa. We’ll call KG/Barkley a tie, 10-10. Both moved on from their crappy first teams to much more loaded second squads. This was Barkley’s best year, but KG played better defense. The Centers were Kendrick Perkins vs. Mark West, and we’ll call this even at 6. As good as the Celtics’ bench was last year, the Suns’ was even better with Ceballos, Ainge, Chambers, Oliver Miller (don’t laugh, he was decent that year), and Frank Johnson, 9-8. And in Doc Rivers and Paul Westphal we have two of the most maligned coaches of all-time. They get an even 7. Final score, 58-56 Celtics. But the Suns get homecourt. I don’t know how to call this. It’s too close. Put a gun to my head? I’ll go with the Suns in 7.

2003 Nets vs. 1995 Rockets

Interesting matchup. I don’t know exactly how this’ll come out. Memory would probably tell you the Rockets were better, but let’s see because I think the Nets would give them problems. Kidd takes Kenny Smith pretty handily. Smith was one of the more underrated PG’s of the 90’s, at least he was before his TNT stint. But Kidd was the engine that made the Nets go, and 2003 was his best season. We’ll say 10-7.5. Clyde was not in his prime anymore, but still was very good. And he beats Kerry Kittles, quite easily, 9-6.5. Richard Jefferson probably beats Mario Elie, 8.5-7. They were similar players in those seasons, the difference being RJ’s defense and athleticism. K-Mart beats a young Horry, mainly on the defensive end. Most people don’t remember, but both of these guys were extremely athletic at that age. That would be a fun matchup. But K-Mart takes it, 8-7. Meanwhile, Hakeem dominates Collins, 10-6. I don’t need to say much else about that. Benches are pretty even – Deke/Lucious Harris & Aaron Williams playing over their heads/Rodney Rogers/a young Anthony Johnson vs. a young Sam I Am/Charles Jones (milk carton?)/Mad Max/Chucky Brown, 7-7. And Rudy bests Byron, 9-7. 56.5 for Clutch City, 53 for the Nets. Plus the Rockets get homecourt, so we’ll say Rockets in 6.

That was fun, we’ll do it again.

 

All-Stars

This year’s all-star picks are going to be more statistical, courtesy of my two favorite stats: 82games.com’s Roland Rating and ESPN’s J0hn Hollinger’s PER Rating.

Let’s Start with the West Guards:

Off the top of my head I’d probably go with Chris Paul, K.O.B.E., Ginobili, Chauncey Billups, and *duh-duh* Brandon Roy.  Let’s see what the stats guys say. These are all the players who rank out of the top 50 of each:

Top West Guards by PER:

1. Chris Paul  – 30.2 PER
2. Kobe Bryant – 24.95 PER
3. Brandon Roy – 24.6 PER
4. Tony Parker – 22.91 PER
5. Manu Ginobili – 21.91 PER
6. Chauncey Billups – 20.42 PER
7. Jason Terry – 19.98 PER
8. Kevin Martin – 18.80 PER
9. Steve Nash – 18.38 PER

Ok so we can delete K-Mart since he’s missed more than half of the season.  So far, I see nothing that makes me change my opinion.  I still give Billups and Ginobili over Parker just because Ginobili seems like the best player on that team and Billups has been so important to the Nuggets’ turnaround.  Let’s check the 82games:

1. Paul – 20.1
2. Roy – 11.4
3. Bryant – 11.2
4. Nash – 8.1
5. Ginobili – 7.5
6. Terry – 6.4
7. Billups – 5.7
8. Parker – 4.7
9. Martin – 4.5

So we have the same 9 guys in a different order. I think it’s pretty safe to call Paul and Bryant the starters and give Roy the first bench spot. Then the debate gets interesting. One thing that stands out to me at the moment is that Ginobili, despite being the Spurs’ best player, has only played 37% of the team’s minutes. I think this calls for him to be thrown out with Martin’s injury problems. So we’re down to Nash, Terry, Billups, and Parker fighting for 2 spots.

Nash – 18.38 PER + 8.1 Roland = 26.48 Total
Terry – 19.98 PER + 6.4 Roland = 26.2 Total
Billups – 20.42 PER + 5.7 Roland = 26.17 Total
Parker – 22.91 PER + 4.7 Roland = 27.61 Total

If you want to get too technical, Parker and Nash should go, but their stats are essentially identical, so we’re going with the two players on better teams: Billups and Parker.  Sorry Nash and Terry, maybe next year when your teams are better. As for who is actually going to make it, T-Mac is leading CP3 for the second spot so that pushes everyone down a notch. My feeling is the Spurs get spurned again and CP3, Roy, Nash, and Billups probably make it – with Billups going as an injury replacement for T-Mac. I don’t see Terry going, so if anyone else gets hurt we’re probably seeing Ginobili.

Now to the West Forwards:

PER:

1.Carlos Boozer – 24.77

1. Tim Duncan – 24.46
2. Dirk Nowitzki – 24.01
3. Al Jefferson – 22.38
4. Amare Stoudemire – 22.26
5. Pau Gasol – 21.76
6. Paul Millsap – 20.65
7. Zach Randolph – 19.57
8. Kevin Durant – 19.39
9. Andrei Kirilenko – 19.16
10. Brendan Wright – 19.08
11. Nene – 19.04
12. LaMarcus Aldridge – 18.36
13. David West – 18.60

One curious note about this list: No Carmelo Anthony. Now to the Roland ratings:

1. Kirilenko – 11.2
2. Nowitzki – 10.9
3. West – 9.2
4. Millsap – 7.5
5. Stoudemire – 7.4
6. Lamar Odom – 7.0
7.Aldridge – 6.9
8. Duncan – 6.7
9. Nene – 5.9
10. Hakim Warrick – 5.9
11. Anthony – 5.7
12. Jefferson – 5.4
13. Ron Artest – 4.6

A couple of things strike me here, first that Duncan and Jefferson are so low on the Roland Ratings. Also, I would’ve never guessed D-West to be so high. Also, this re-inforces my point that Kirilenko should be an all-star. But to sum things up, Nowitzki and Stoudemire deserve to be your starters. And while neither of them will end up there, they both should make the all-star game pretty handidly, so that’s nice. Filling the bench is a bit more of a stretch. Millsap actually looks the best of the rest with Kirilenko and Duncan right after him. So those are your deserving All-Stars: Nowizki, Stoudemire, Millsap, Kirilenko, and Duncan. We’ll go with David West as the sixth in case of injury. However I think Gasol actually gets the call, since the Lakers have been so good and he has the next best stats. Millsap and Kirilenko probably don’t make it, but Carmelo’s actually going to start or make it strictly off his name so D-West stays the alternate again.

The center position isn’t much of a question. Yao Ming is 2.3 Roland points ahead of Camby and 3.3 ahead of Shaq, though Shaq does beat him by .52 in PER. Camby is more than 2 points behind both in PER. So Yao will probably go and no one else, but both Shaq and Camby are more than deserving if either of them make it as reserves, since Yao is always voted as the starter. Unfortunately, Shaq’s Suns are in 7th in the West and are not likely to get three all-stars if Nash goes and if the coaches have to choose between Shaq and Nash it’s probably Nash at this point. And Camby’s team is so terrible he’s not likely to be rewarded.

But just to make things fun we have West, Shaq, Camby, Terry, Nash, and let’s throw Al Jefferson in there as guys right below the all-stars competing for our 12th roster spot.

Terry – 19.98 PER + 6.4 Roland = 26.2 Total
Nash – 18.38 PER + 8.1 Roland = 26.48 Total
Shaq – 23.56 PER + 6.8 Roland = 30.36 Total
Camby – 20.89 PER + 7.8 Roland = 28.69 Total
Jefferson – 22.38 PER + 5.4 Roland = 27.78 Total
West – 18.6 PER + 9.2 Roland = 27.8 Total

As you can see, Shaq wins this pretty handidly. Camby comes in a close second and becomes the first alternate with Nash as the guard alternate – we’ll even say that David West is the third alternate.

So here is our Western Conference All-Stars (starters in bold):

G Chris Paul, NOH
G Kobe Bryant, LAL
F Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
F Amare Stoudemire, PHO
C Yao Ming, HOU
G Brandon Roy, POR
G Chauncey Billups, DEN
G Tony Parker
F Tim Duncan, SAS
F Andrei Kirilenko
F Paul Millsap
C Shaquille O’Neal

In reality, the All-stars will look like this:
G Kobe Bryant
G Tracy McGrady
G Chris Paul
F Tim Duncan
F Carmelo Anthony
C Yao Ming
G Brandon Roy
G Steve Nash
G Chauncey Billups
F Amare Stoudemire
F Dirk Nowitzki
F Pau Gasol
C Shaquille O’Neal

To the East we go, starting with the Guards.  These are our PER stats:

1. Dwayne Wade – 28.87
2. Devin Harris – 23.63
3. Jameer Nelson – 21.15
4. Vince Carter – 20.82
5. Joe Johnson – 19.05
6. Mike Bibby – 18.94
7. Michael Redd – 18.94
7. Rajon Rondo – 18.9
8. Jose Calderon – 18.94
9. Andre Miller – 18.25

Yes this is correct, Harris and Nelson are 2 & 3, deservedly so.

Roland Ratings:
1. Wade 19.5
2. Ray Allen 11.2
3. Johnson 8.9
4. Nelson 8.6
5. Redd 8.0
5. Carter 6.8
6. Delonte West 6.5
7. Rondo 5.7
8. Harris 5.6
9. Ramon Sessions 4.8

Wade is the easy pick as the first starter. The real surprise is Nelson as his backcourt mate. After that it’s a pretty tight race with Allen, Johnson, Vince-sanity, Rondo, and Harris. Three of the five can make it, two will get left out. Let’s take a look at the race:

Allen – 17.66 PER + 11.2 Roland = 28.86
Johnson – 19.05 + 8.9 = 28.95
Carter – 20.82 + 6.8 = 27.62
Rondo – 18.9 + 5.7 = 24.6
Harris – 23.63 + 5.6 = 29.23

So Rondo clearly is eliminated, but after that it looks like the last man out is Carter. Not bad, since Harris has been a little better than him and the Nets don’t deserve to have two all-stars. So Wade and Nelson are our starters with Harris, Allen and Johnson as his backups. But the difference between Nelson and Harris is so small that it could change after any game. I think AI is going to win the second starting spot which pushes everyone down a spot, eliminating Allen. Nelson and Harris should be quite a nice story going into this game.

The Eastern Forwards’ PER:
1. Lebron James – 31.59
2. Chris Bosh – 23.38
3. Danny Granger – 22.16
4. Kevin Garnett – 21.25
5. Marreese Spreights – 20.44
6. Antawn Jamison – 20.38
7. Andre Iguodala – 18.4
8. Caron Butler – 18.24

And on the Roland side;

1. James 24.2
2. Iguodala 10.2
3. Granger 10.2
4. Garnett 10.1
5. Bosh 8.3
6. Rashard Lewis 8.0
7. Hedo Turkoglu 4.9
8. Paul Pierce 4.6

So here our top 5 is pretty clear cut. The only question is, after James who starts?

Let’s look at the numbers:
Bosh – 23.38 + 8.3 = 32.18
Granger – 22.16 + 10.2 = 32.36
Garnett – 21.25 + 10.1 = 31.35
Iguodala – 18.4 + 10.2 = 28.6

So by a nose, Granger starts and we start two tweener-small forwards. With Bosh, Garnett, and Iggs backing them up. Now for the actual team I’d probably have to say Pierce makes it and Iguodala gets pushed off as an alternate.

Which leads us to…

Dwight Howard is the center. No question. Big Z is a clear-cut #2 as well. But I think for the actual game, Iggy gets his roster spot. Plus Z is hurt anyway.

Our Deserving Eastern Conference All Stars (Starters in Bold):
G Dwayne Wade, MIA
G Jameer Nelson, ORL
F Lebron James, CLE
F Danny Granger, IND
C Dwight Howard, ORL
G Devin Harris, NJN
G Ray Allen, BOS
G Joe Johnson, ATL
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
F Chris Bosh, TOR
F Andre Iguodala, PHI
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE

And the team that will likely make it:

G Allen Iverson, DET
G Dwayne Wade, MIA
F Lebron James, CLE
F Kevin Garnett, BOS
C Dwight Howard, ORL
G Jameer Nelson, ORL
G Devin Harris, NJN
G Joe Johnson, ATL
F Paul Pierce, BOS
F Chris Bosh, TOR
F Danny Granger, IND
F Andre Iguodala, PHI

Snubs:
So here we go with whose going to get snubbed. The two Jazz potential All-Stars are going to be spurned by the more popular Gasol and Anthony, while T-Mac’s winning the West Vote won’t probably mean much as he looks like he’ll miss the game anyway. In the East, Pierce essentially cancels out Allen, and Iverson takes Z’s spot. Not too much to complain about, though I’d bet Jerry Sloan’ll be pissed. What’s impressive is Millsap and Terry’s success as reserves.

 

“Last Night Changed it all…”

Last night was an evening of some unbelievable individual performances. Let’s start with the plus/minus guys. Typically the role players who come in and immediately make an impact on the game, it can also be stars who single-handedly dominate a game.
Last night’s top +/- guys:

1. Yakhouba Diawara, MIA (+26): Despite playing only 26 minutes, Diawara managed to make an impact on the game. Is it possible that Miami’s found their perfect 3, and it was probably the guy they least expected?

2. Trevor Ariza, LAL (+25): It’s hard to describe exactly what Ariza does for the Lakers. He did have 10 points, 6 boards, an assist, and two steals. Solid, but unspectacular. But he dives for loose balls, plays good defense, is athletic enough to make plays, and makes smart plays on both ends of the floor.

3. Brandon Wright, GSW (+24): B-Wright had a breakout game for the Dubs with 18 points and 13 rebounds. With Harrington both demanding a trade and being in Nellie’s doghouse simultaneously, this is Wright’s chance.

4. Lebron James, CLE (+22): More on LeBron’s big game in a minute.

5. Kelanna Azubuike, GSW (+21): I like to call the Dubs, “the little team that could,” and Azubuike is the embodiment of that statement. An undrafted, former NBDL star who has made a major difference in the past two years since joining the Warriors before their playoff run in 07.

6. Lamar Odom, LAL (+21): Think this Odom off the bench thing is working? Odom completely owns second teams. If he can stay happy in this role, it may be the best thing for his career. He also dumped in a quiet 15 and 9.

7. David West, NOH (+20): Despite losing to the Hawks in a battle of unbeatens, D-West was the brightest spot in the game for either team. The box score just shows 16 points, 3 assists, and 3 rebounds, but West played hard and played with wreckless abandon. Too bad the rest of the Hornets forgot to show up.

8. Paul Pierce, BOS (+20): 20 points, 9 boards, 5 assists. Nothing too flashy from the Truth, but another dubbya on the season for the C’s.

9. CJ Watson, GSW (+20): Three Dubs in the top 10??! Insane! And three un-heralded Dubs at that. Yes we know that Captain Jack had the team high 28, but these three lesser-names were the ones who really drove the team to victory.

10. Dwayne Wade, MIA (+19): What? Did you expect Gumby?

The other side of the coin: Last night’s worst +/- guys:

10. Derrick Rose, CHI (-18): 20 points, 7 dimes look nice – until you compare it with the 3 Turnovers and horrible defense that allowed both of Cleveland’s god-awful guards to end up in double figures. Delonte West, in particular, completely scorched him. Delonte West! And this kid is the future of the NBA? We’ll see how this works itself out. Keep an eye on Derrick Rose’s defense.

9. Brandan Rush, IND (-19): Those are growing pains Brandan. You will go through them. The rest of your rookie class is too (ie Rosse above), just play better D and your offense will come to you.

8. Linas Kleiza, DEN (-20): Ok, we know he’s no defensive wiz, but he was getting owned by Brandan Wright and Kelanna Azubuike. I’m sure a 2-for-7 night didn’t help matters either.

7. Drew Gooden, CHI (-20): And this is just stats, not accounting for shit talkin Lebron. Gooden finished with 11 points and 9 boards. But the two guys he was mostly pitted against – Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Ben Wallace – ended with 10 & 14 boards in significantly less minutes.

6. Antawn Jamison, WAS (-20): The Gilbert-less Wiz are in some trouble. Jamison finished with 19 points and 10 boards, which is fine until you realize he shot 6-19 and gave up a 17 point night to Luc Mbah A Moute.

5. Caron Butler, WAS (-20): Tough Juice’s night was even weirder. He scored 27 points and grabbed 7 boards, but also had five turnovers, five fouls, and was lit up for 32 by Richard Jefferson.

4. Willie Green, PHI (-22): Willie Green has some terrible luck. He plays only 15 minutes, goes 1-4 from the field, ends up with 2 points, 2 boards, a foul, and a turnover, and has to guard Dwayne Wade while he’s in there. Of course Wade’s game was pretty good, Green’s wasn’t.

3. Chris Kaman, LAC (-22): The caveman has seen better days. He finishes with 6 points and 11 boards. But as many fouls as points, and three turnovers. Yikes!

2. DeShawn Stevenson, WAS (-22): Though normally extremely streaky, last night he was just terrible on offense. Six points, four boards, and three dimes went with being the main defender on Jefferson, who lit up everyone.

1. Thaddeus Young, PHI (-23): 19 points, four boards and 3 steals look nice. But the five turnovers and being lit up by Wade doesn’t.

Nineteen players dropped at least 25 points, led by Tony Parker’s double nickel. Mr. Longoria also dropped 10 dimes and pulled down 7 boards. Rediculous! Amare almost topped him with 49 points, 11 boards, 6 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks! Of course LeBron dropped 41, 11 boards, 6 dimes, & 4 steals. K-Mart also threw in 33 points, while RJ threw in 32 and 9 dimes. BGordan had 31, Tim Duncan had 30 and 16 boards, and Al Jefferson had 30 and 14 boards.

 

“In the night I hear them talk/

The coldest story ever told/
Somewhere far along this road he lost his soul….”

Why are there so many “Heartless” NBA teams?

So last night’s games affirmed a couple of things to me:

1.) The Celtics are still hungry

2.) The Lakers are really loaded

3.) The Blazers may be a tad overrated

and….

4.) The Bucks really suck.

On with the NBA preview….

19. Atlanta Hawks

Tell me, NBA experts, why you expect these Hawks to make the playoffs.  It contradicts many of the common “NBA expert” predictions.  First, they say the East is better.  Well, how are Hawks making the playoffs in the better east without their sixth man, and without gaining any rotation players?  Is a whole year of Mike Bibby going to make that big of an impact?  The Hawks are fun, until you realize that the frontcourt is confusing.  Marvin Williams is your starting 4?  And Al Horford is your starting 5?  Or is Josh Smith your 4?  Basically you have two SF’s with one of them playing the PF.  Then you start a PF at C.  This is confusing.  Luckily, the one person Bibby helps out is Joe Johnson.  I fully expect a big year from him.  But with this bench?  Or lackthereof…..this team should slide a bit this season.  Mike Woodson may get fired.

18. Dallas Mavericks

Common NBA wisdom has these guys in the playoffs.  I don’t think so.  It’s going to take a major injury to a

Ason apparently left his J at home for the playoffs again

competitor for the other D to make the playoffs.  Conventional thinking has the Nuggets as the West team on the outside looking in.  I think it’s Dallas.  This is why: The Nuggets can score (as we’ll get to later).  Who scores for Dallas? Dirk may get you 25/game, but what after that?  Are you really going to rely on Jason Terry and Josh Howard to give you 15-20 every night?  Who else? Jason Kidd? Even in his prime he wasn’t much of a scorer.  Jerry Stackhouse?  He’s done.  Erick Dampier?  You must be kidding.  Secondly, how’s this for depth?  Starting Terry on the bench gives you two reliable subs (Terry & Brandan Bass) and four reliable starters (we’ll say Antoine Wright starts for defensive purposes, but really he starts because Terry’s too small to start at the 2).  Sad thing is, they’re probably going to waste another great season for Dirk, and he’s going to complain to Mark Cuban.  They’re going to need a big trade to get into the playoffs.  Otherwise they’re also-rans in the West this season.

17. Indiana Pacers

I wanted to put these guys in the playoffs, really did.  But I juuust don’t see it happening.  One thing’s for sure: This will be a fun team to watch.  TJ Ford can certainly run, and Mike Dunleavy (*gulp*) had a career year for them.  Danny Granger is one of the most under-the-radar stars in the NBA.  And they have Jarrett Jack, one of the offseason’s most underrated acquisitions, to step in if Ford gets hurt.  Really, 1-4 they’re loaded two-deep with offensive players, and both Nesterovic and Foster can play D, hustle, and grab boards.  This is going to be an interesting team, I just don’t think the quite get into the playoffs.  I actually think that, top 8 vs. top 8, the East is better than the West this year.  But the Pacers will be the last team out.  That’s a credit to Jim O’Brien, because Obie has one of the teams with the least talent in the league on it.

16. Denver Nuggets

So this is where I have Denver.  They are, to me, the wild card of the west.  They could race out to the best record in the league, grab home court advantage, and no one would really be surprised.  “Well, they do have Carmelo and Iverson,” people would say.  “Plus that bench, with Kleiza and JR Smith!  They sure can score the basketball!  And they have a glutton of bigs!” Or they could sink quickly to the bottom, Iverson could demand a trade, Carmelo would probably be traded too, and they could end up with the worst record in the leage.  Again, no one would be surprised.  “That team was built for self destruction,” they’d say.  “George Karl can’t control them.  Carmelo’s one of the worst defenders in the league.  And Iverson’s done.”  I think they’ll end up pretty much where they have in recent years – in the middle of the pack.  But I do think Iverson gets traded.  Two places really make sense for him: Cleveland and Philly.  He would purrrrrfect in either place.  As the finisher to LeBron’s fast breaks, or as the go-to scorer that Philly needs to ascend to championship contender status.  And by the way, I do not consider Carmelo a bad defender.  I think he would be fine defending the 4.  It’s the athleticism and speed at the 3 that he does not really have.

(Tangent Alert)

That said, these are the 10 Worst Defenders in the League:

10. Monta Ellis, Warriors: He’s obviously hurt right now, but he’s just too small to guard most players, and he can’t guard the pick-and-roll so he can’t guard points.  He is just possibly the worst pick-and-roll defender in the league.  He never knows what to do.  And that’s the most elementary play in basketball!

9. Eddie Curry, Knicks: He’s big, chubby, and slow.  Doesn’t really make for a guy who can guard the athletic centers of the world.  That said, he does allright in staying in front of people.  But shouldn’t a guy that’s seven-foot block more shots and get more rebounds?

8. Brad Miller, Kings: The Kings have a couple of other players who you could argue onto this list (Kevin Martin and Beno Udrih, I’m looking at you), but Brad is the biggest culprit.  He wasn’t always a horrible defender, but since he got to the Kings he’s gotten progressively worse each season.  I’m sure it doesn’t help that he’s possibly the slowest, least athletic player in the league.  But he does so much for you on offense, that you have to play him.

7. Andrew Bogut, MIL: I think this guy is kind of the second coming of Brad Miller.  Not exactly what you expect from a first overall draft pick, but a solid player – especially offensively.  He keeps the ball moving and can hit jump shots.  That said, he has even worse footwork than Miller on defense.  And he isn’t quite as good as him on offense.  Bogut has some time to learn, but not on this Bucks team that has 3 of the 10 worst defenders in the league!

6. Steve Nash, PHO: A couple of years ago, I would’ve said that Nash isn’t as bad a defender as teammate Amare Stoudemire.  But while Stoudemire is no ace on that end, he’s learned how to use his athleticism and size to stay in front of people.  Meanwhile, Nash has gotten a little slower  – thus regressing defensively.  He may hit the tail end of his career as the worst defender in the league.  But again, he’s a two-time MVP, so I’d think he makes up for it on the other end.

5. Troy Murphy, IND: That he’s sunk to fifth in the league is a tribute to how bad of defenders the top 4 is.  Murphy is pretty horrible on the defensive end of the floor, that’s no secret.  I had season tickets his last season in Golden State.  He gets lost in the pick & roll, he gets lost on the break.  He really just has no defensive awareness.  In fact he doesn’t really have much offensive awareness, but you play him because he’s a big who can shoot.  And somehow seems to be in the right position at the right time to grab rebounds.  But they’re the type of rebounds that you look up and he as 8, and you have no idea how he got them.

4. Luke Ridnour, MIL: Ok, so Luke was always a pretty bad defender.  Even in Seattle with Nate McMillan, he managed to be pretty bad on defense, even losing his starting job to Earl Watson (who is something like 5’8!) because of defense.  When a midget is replacing you for defensive purposes, you got problems.  Now he’s looking like the starting point guard for Scott Skiles’ Bucks.  I find it hilarious that a defensive/tough-minded coach like Skiles decided to take over the Bucks, who may be the worst defensive team in history.  Should be great for shits and giggles.

3. Wally Szerbiak, CLE: Both NBA players and fans had Wally as the worst defender in the league.  I say he’s third.  Not by a wide margin, but he’s pretty bad.  He really does nothing properly on defense.  He’s really just on your team to shoot.  That’s all he does.  Plus he has an expiring contract.  That’s always nice.

2. Zach Randolph, NYK: This is where Z-Bo comes in.  I talked a bit about him yesterday and I’m sure I will talk more about him this season.  He’s one of my favorite subjects.

Yeah, that's what you get for telling Charlie to play D!

1. Charlie Villanueva, MIL: This is the battle, in particular, that looks fun.  Villanueva vs. Skiles.  The showdown in Milwaukee.  They should get a pay-per-view set up!  Villanueva’s actually so proficient on the offensive end, that it makes you scared that he still can’t get on the floor for his lack of defense.  He’s actually a possible 50 points every night.  But yes, he’s really that bad on defense.

(And Now Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Preview)

15. Portland Trail Blazers

Yes I just said that they’re overrated, and I think everyone has them here too.  But screw it.  With Oden, they end up here.  If he’s hurt for any significant time, they (and my Fantasy team) sink.  Bottom line.  This team has everything but a dominant big man.  They have the athletic big man, but not the brute strength big man.  By now I’m sure you’ve read all about the rest of the team: Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, Fernandez, Rodriguez, Webster, Blake.  Loaded.  I don’t need to go into too much other detail.

14. Phoenix Suns

When you trade for Shaq for defensive purposes, you realize that your team doesn’t really do much on that end.  Nevertheless, this Suns team is still loaded with talent.  Steve Nash, Shaq, Amare, and Grant Hill are all still there.  But Shawn Marion and Mike D’Antoni are gone.  And with the additions of Matt Barnes and Robin Lopez, they now have a pretty good bench.  Nash may have slipped, but he’s still among the elite PG’s in the league.  The Raja Bell/Leandro Barbosa combination at the 2 is still as good as any in the league.  Barnes should take some heat off Grant Hill from wearing down at the end of the year, remember, Hill played at almost an all-star level for the first half of last year.  Boris Diaw and Lopez will come off the bench for Amare and Shaq to give them a pretty solid big man rotation.  This team is still quite loaded, and could definitely make a run for it.  But it’s hard to put them higher than here, since we don’t know what the drop off from D’Antoni to Terry Porter is.

13. Washington Wizards

Everyone seems to be counting these guys out.  I’m not.  This is a very good team.  They still have Butler and Jamison, and if he ever gets healthy, Gilbert.  They still have the role players DeShawn “I Can’t Feel My Face” Stevenson, Antonio Daniels, and now Juan Dixon.  And they have the kids in Nick Young and Andray Blatche.  This is a very good team without Gilbert.  They are a Championship contender with him.  Last year they showed that they can win with defense.  With Gil they obviously can score with anyone.  Caron Butler has developed into one of the best 3’s in the league.  That leads me to my second tangent of the day:

The Top 10 SF’s in the NBA:

This is a situation where the top 4 are pretty much set in stone, then you work your way down.

10. Kevin Durant, OKC: Obviously this guy is the future of the position (I also think that, when all is said & done, Beasley will be a SF too), but he’s got a lot of ways to go.  He sure can score though.

9. Josh Howard, DAL: While I’m not sure where else to put him, Black Gumby goes here.  Unfortunately, this summe rhe let his mouth overshadow his game.  And that’s sayin somethin cuz his game is crazy hype.

8. Tayshaun Prince, DET: A difference-maker on both sides of the court.  He is among the best defenders in the game and can shoot it out from behind the stripe.

7. Shawn Marion, MIA: This may be a surprise to a lot of people, but I think he’s started his descention this past season.  This year we’ll see how he does in Miami playing next to a superstar and with a talented rook tryin to take his spot.

Danny would like you to know he's underrated

6. Danny Granger, IND: Yes, he’s really this good.  Granger has been under-the-radar since he came into the league backing up Ron Artest.  But this might be the year he really breaks out, as the Pacers will make a playoff run.

5. Ron Artest, HOU: This seems like the best spot for him at the moment.  No one’s sure what he’s going to do in Houston, but if he plays up to this ranking, they are going to be making a deep trek into the playoffs this season.

4. Caron Butler, WAS: A very solid #4 on this list, Butler has developed into the positions top two-way player.  An all-defense team-level defender and an all-star scorer, Butler can beat you in the post or the around the arc.

3. Carmelo Anthony, DEN: I like to say that he’s a more advanced offensive version of our #2 guy, but he’s not anywhere near him on D.  And that’s really the difference between the two teams as well.

2. Paul Pierce, BOS: Again, the 2/3 matchup here is pretty even.  But something tells me Pierce has a huge season, now that he’s clearly the #1 weapon out of the big 3.

1. Lebron James, CLE: You expected something else?

(And now back to the Preview)

12. Philadelphia 76ers

I know, I know.  This is where they were last year.  And I know, they added Elton Brand.  But you know, they still have the same hole they did last year.  They merely improved a part of the team that was already pretty good, and made it championship caliber – post play.  But they still need a go-to scorer, preferrably on the wing that can drop 20-25 a night and score in the clutch when needed (see: Iverson, Allen).  Just as the Nuggets never quite replaced Andre Miller, the Sixers never replaced Iverson either.  And while they have a ton of nice pieces, they still lack a number one option.  But they do have Miller at the point with Louis Williams draining it off the bench.  Iguodala is a 2/3 swingman, but he’s more of a third scorer.  Thaddyeus Young should ideally be a bench guy at this point of his career.  Elton Brand and Sam Dalembert will play really well together, though they do a lot of the same things with weakside defense.  Again, I think it’s going to come down to the trade deadline.  If they go after a number one guy, they could be right there with the Celts and Cavs.  The downside of going after Iverson: they probably have to give up Dalembert to do it.  We’ll see what happens here, things could get very interesting in Philly.  Even if they wait until the offseason, i think the chance of them landing Iverson might actually improve.  But without him, I think they’re still the seventh best team in the East.

11. San Antonio Spurs

This is another team that’s difficult to project.  It’d be easy to say “oh yea, they can get it together again once Ginobili gets healthy.”  But that’s overlooking a couple of things.  First, Duncan and Parker are going to have to shoulder this offense by themselves.  All of the role players either can’t score (Bowen, Oberto), or got old really quick (Finley, Thomas).  The result of this is Duncan and Parker are likely to be carrying assortments of injuries into the playoffs.  Secondly, this team no longer has any depth.  RC Buford has been as good of a GM as there’s been in the league.  But this team desperately needed a reloading this offseason.  And they simply didn’t get it.  They look like they could be in serious trouble going into this season.  They may fall even further than I have them right now.  Especially realizing that Duncan and Ginobili are also getting up there in age themselves.

10. Miami Heat

This is really high for them by most people’s standards.  I’m not most people.  I’m the same guy that was saying that the 2005-2007 Dwayne Wade until his injury in 07, was the best player in the league.  Offensively, this guy was Jordan reincarnated.  Now obviously Wade is a mildly average defender, and Jordan was all-world, but offensively, Wade is the closest thing to Jordan we’ve ever seen.  Beasley and Marion fill out the forward spots, but they play, essentially, the same position.  Though I do think we will mainly see them playing together, they’ll start the season with Beasley coming off the bench for Udonis Haslem.  Haslem will probably move up to Center for the majority of the time.  They do have holes at center and at the point, but Mario Chalmers and Haslem will eat most of those minutes.  This team is really the wild card of the conference.  Everyone seems to say that they’ve all gotten behind new head coach Erik Spoelstra.  And they do have plenty of talent.

9. Orlando Magic

I think they come back to the pack a bit.  It won’t really show up in the standings, as they’ll still win the Atlantic and end up with the 4-seed, but I think there are 4 teams in the East better this year.  Of course, Dwight Howard would need to dversify his offensive game in order for them to improve.  And over the Olympics, he routinely looked worse than Chris Bosh.  I know that they don’t actually play the same position, but they tend to guard each other.  Bosh also has a better supporting cast.  Though I do think Hedo has developed into a stud, the rest of the team leaves a lot to be desired.  Rashard Lewis is a mediocre player with a superstar’s salary.  Jameer Nelson and Keith Bogans form the least potent backcourt in the league.  And bench?  What bench?

8. Toronto Raptors

Thus I put Bosh’s Raptors right ahead of Howard’s Magic.  Bosh is another of those silent superstars.  This kid is really good.  And he has a very good team around him.  Jose Calderon is a budding star, Anthony Parker is very solid, and Jamario moon can jump over anyone.  Then there’s the team’s x-factor in Jermaine O’Neal.  He can give them a defensive boost and complement Bosh in the post.  If he works out for them, they should challenge for the title.  If he doesn’t, they still probably end up here.  Jason Kapono can shoot the lights out and Andrea Bargnani does a little bit of everything off the bench.  So this team’s biggest weakness is depth.  But Bosh has gotten really good and caused me to make another tangent.

The 10 Best PF’s in the NBA:

10. Carlos Boozer, UTA: Slightly overrated, but he’s very good.  Might be in Miami next year playing with Wade and Beasley.  Now wouldn’t that be a team?

9. Pau Gasol, MEM: Somwhat weak-minded.  I could see him disappearing into a secondary role with the Lakers as the season progresses.

Antawn's been pumped since he left the Warriors

8. Antawn Jamison, WAS: Slightly under-rated.  Jamison creates matchup problems with his shooting, and goes to the boards and plays D better than he ever has before.

7. David West, NOH: Very good player, but I’m not ready to put him ahead of Brand.  He doesn’t play D quite as well.  He does score better than him, but doesn’t play D or rebound as well.

6. Elton Brand, PHI: He has to show me he’s fully healthy before he can even sniff the top 5.  But with West on his heels, he might not even be 6 for long.

5. Amare Stoudemire, PHO: He’s actually #1 if we’re talking stats, but with his defensive weaknesses and injuries I’m keeping him lower.

4. Chris Bosh, TOR: Bosh has grown into himself finally.  And this kid is a freakin monster.  Bosh will give you scoring, rebounding, energy, physicallity, and he can run or post.

3. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL: At one point, I considered him the second best player in the league.  He’s not quite there anymore, but being third at the most top-loaded position in the league is not bad either.

2. Tim Duncan, SAS: The Duncan/KG argument can continue in terms of legacies, but it’s pretty clear that TD is slipping at this point.  He’s not quite as good of a defender, and can’t score or pass as well.

1. Kevin Garnett, BOS: KG is still the best defending big man in the league (though a healthy Jermaine O’Neal would challenge him), and he still drops 18 and 12 every night.  Oh and he finally won a ring.

(Now back to the preview)

7. New Orleans Hornets

David West is very good.  Chris Paul is very good.  Tyson Chandler and Peja Stoyakovic are pretty good as well.  But what about the rest of the roster?  Ehhh….James Posey fills out the starting lineup, but an injury to West, Paul, or Chandler would be devistating.  And even with them, I don’t know how they beat Utah or L.A.  And who knows about Houston.  I think they over-achieved a bit last season, but they should make it up this year.  I see them as another second round playoff team (they are the new Suns).  Paul in particular should take a step backwards this year.  But he’ll still have a very good season.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the other three had better years this season.  Actually I think they will.  Very good team.  Not quite championship caliber.

6. Utah Jazz

Deron's so much better than Parker, he shoves it in his face!

Like his buddy CP3, I see D-Will going out in the second round.  The Jazz, as a team, play over their heads.  Only D-Will is really that good.  And he really doesn’t get the credit he deserves.  He makes Boozer, Okur, and Brewer look better than they really are.  Well, he and Jerry Sloan.  I see Boozer playing the second half with a foot out the door.  Ak-47 should really start at the 4 for this team.  Or Paul Millsap.  Bozer can leave, they have 2 PF’s here that might actually play better without him.  The swingman spots are a bit of a hole, with Brewer being the best of the bunch.  Matt Harpring’s age is finally catching up with him, and Kyle Korver is almost exclusively a three-point specialist.  But Sloan is good at getting the most out of his players, and with a pass-first PG in D-Will, these guys should all be kept happy with plenty of shots.  If you continue to wait for the Jazz to go away, they won’t.  This is a very good team, and they still will be very good for the seasons to come.

5. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are as deep as they’ve ever been.  But you wonder if all those deep playoff runs are wearing down the starters.  Amir Johnson looks to get more looks this year, and with Stuckey and Maxiell, this young bench is only getting better.  But despite the offseason promises, Joe Dumars made no real move of interest.  The same Billups/Hamilton/Prince/Wallace/McDyess starting 5 still remains.  Dice might be out of the starting lineup this year, and wither Johnson or Maxiell are likely to replace him.  Dice just isn’t enough of an option on offense anymore to keep him in there.  Maxiell (offense) and Johnson (defense) are each more of specialty players at this stage of their careers, but either would fit the starting 5 fine as Rasheed Wallace, the other starting big, is a threat at both ends of the floor.  As are the rest of the starting 5.  Each seems to be slipping a bit (with the exception of Prince), but they are all still right around all-star-caliber players.  Look for the Pistons to make another deep run, but ultimately fall short of yet another Conference Finals appearance.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Here’s what I don’t like about putting these guys here: I think last year’s squad was better than this year’s.  But I think the Pistons have slipped enough to put the Cavs into the #2 spot.  To me, Mo Williams has nice numbers, but is not an upgrade over Boobie Gibson and Delonte West in terms of wins for the team.  Of course if they make the Iverson trade, all bets are off.  But even if they got him, I still don’t think they’re beating Boston.  I could sit here and talk about how great LeBron is, but he still needs more help.  The Cavs don’t have nearly the talent around him that their rivals in Detroit and Boston do.  This seems like beating a dead horse, but lets look at the three major players they got in last year’s trade deadline deal; Ben Wallace, West, and Wally Szerbiak.  Szerbiak is a taller version of Damon Jones.  He can shoot, but can’t do anything else.  And he probably doesn’t shoot the 3 as well as Jones.  Wallace was an entirely defensive player in his prime, and at this point is slipping every year.  And West is a very strong defender, but doesn’t really have an offensive position.  This is a team of a bunch of loose parts and role players, but none of which really fit together around the superstar.  But even with that, LeBron is so good that chemistry has gone out of the window and the team competese for a title every year anyway.

3. L.A. Lakers

This might be a huge suprise to some, but I have them going down in the Conference Finals.  I just think something’s got to give with these guys.  Lamar’s unhappy coming off the bench (he’s in a contract year).  I see Pau being resigned to being an understudy.  Bynum still has little offensive game.  And sans Kobe, the second team might be better than the first team.  But with all that said, they’re just too talented not to get far in the playoffs.  I think they need more of a systematic approach, and don’t doubt that Phil Jackson will eventually give it to them, but not this year.  The Lakers will look like the best team in the NBA for stretches, even dominating at times.  But they eventually go down in the Conference Championship to….

2. Houston Rockets

Any excuse to throw up this classic

Yes, Ron Artest is a headache.  But every team he’s been on has been significantly better immediately.  That’s great news for Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, as the new big 3 will be taking over the Western Conference.  Much has been made about Tracy’s Paul Pierce-like transition into a team player from an individual superstar.  Yao is the best center in the league (Dwight Howard, get back to me when you learn some offensive moves), and Ron provides a star third scorer.  Shane Battier is the best defensive player in the game.  Rafer Alston is the heart and soul of the team, a gunner with a never-say-die attitude.  Luis Scola and Carl Landry were so great at combining at Power Forward, that they decided to re-unite and do it again.  But this time they have reinforcements in Joey Dorsey and Chuck Hayes.  The wing spots are deep too with Luther Head, Brent Barry, and Aaron Brooks coming off the pine.  This team is so loaded, they couldn’t find room for Dikembe Mutombo to come back.  T-Mac has the team he’s always wanted.  Actually, he has a team that just about everyone has always wanted.  Now it’s time to prove your worth.  You too Yao.  Ron’s been to the Conference Finals before.  He’s seen what it took.  Now you guys have to go take him to the promise-land.  But in the end I have them coming up juuuuust short.

1. Boston Celtics

The Lakers and Cavs are the trendy picks because of Kobe and LeBron.  The Hornets and Rockets are the fun picks because they resemble the Suns and Heat of the past.  The Jazz and Spurs are the boring picks that are there every year, but no one wants to make them.  But the Celtics are still the best team.  And that’s really all there is to say.  Kevin Garnett?  Still in his prime.  Still a super-duper-star.  Still the best PF in the game (see above).  Paul Pierce?  Also still in his prime.  Now a super-duper-star.  The second best SF in the game (see above).  Ray Allen?  Past his prime a bit.  But still has a ton left in the tank.  Still one of the best pure shooters in the game.  Rajon Rondo?  Very good point guard.  Already among the upper tier of PGs.  Plus they have the Bynum/Howard-type center in Kendrick Perkins, who I might mention, is a freakin monster.  And Perkins and Rondo are just getting better.  Plus they got Bill Walker, a personal favorite, who can jump over skyscrapers.  Plus that bench, Big Baby, Leon Powe, Eddie House, Gabe Pruit should make a splace.  This is a championship caliber team.  No, this is a multiple championship-caliber team.  And I like them to win #18.

 

“Well It’s Time…”

So baseball is back, but there’s still another 150-games or so. College Basketball is done. Football has its’ draft day, then they’re silent until October. And hockey’s fanbase is non-existent these days anyway. So basically, all eyes are on the NBA playoffs. For all intensive purposes, they kicked off last night with the Warriors being essentially eliminated by the Nuggets. So this is a quick look at all the playoff teams….

Starting today with the East;

1. Boston Celtics, 62-16 (Remaining Games: MIL, @ATL, @ NYK, NJN)

“Hey KG, We got the best record in the East!”
While they’ve had the best record in the league locked up for a while, the game in Atlanta could still prove meaningful. First, Atlanta is yet to clinch the 8th seed with Indiana 2 games back with 4 to play. Second, if standings hold they’ll get the Hawks in the first round. Also it will be interesting to see if Doc Rivers plays his starts the rest of the way like he did in Washington. He says that last year’s Mavs/Warriors upset has led him to take a different stance on his playoff proceedings. That’s all well and nice, but you have an old veteran team. Sam Cassell, Rajon Rondo, and Glenn Davis are all nicked up up, and it would be good to rest at least those guys. The problem with that is, they’d have no point guard. Nevertheless, they should make easy work of Atlanta in the first round. But they will have trouble with either team they get in the second round (assuming seedings hold). Currently its Cleveland vs. Washington, but Philly could catch either of them and Toronto could catch Washington. Washington is particularly scary for Boston, as the Celts have trouble with the Wiz’ combination of DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler guarding the wings. Plus Jamison draws KG out of the post, and Rajon doesn’t have a shot at guarding Arenas.

2. Detroit Pistons, 55-23 (Remaining Games: WAS, TOR, MIN, @ CLE)

The Pistons have been locked into the second seed for quite a while as well. However the Western top teams have caught them, and they could lose potential home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get that far. They are currently tied with top seed New Orleans, but the top 6 teams in the West could all still catch them. And they play three playoff teams the rest of the way. Fortunately three of them are at home. Plus I think it makes for a nice tune-up to end the regular season. I think they go 2-2, falling to both Washington and Cleveland, before destroying Toronto in the first round.

3. Orlando Magic, 49-29 (Remaining Games: MIN, @ CHI, @ ATL, WAS)

The Magic are in a strange position. They cannot move up or down in the standings, and every Western team except Denver is ahead of them. They’ve also been relatively cold going 4-5 in their last nine games. It looks like they will get either Philly or Washington in the first round, and both of those teams are hot. Their best case scenario would be for Toronto to move up and they’d get them. But even that would be no gimme, as Bosh creates problems for Howard in the post, and the Magic have problems guarding either Toronto point guard. But they should end the season 3-1, only falling to the Wizz, and head into a first round matchup against Philly as a favorite.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers, 43-35 (Remaining Games: @ CHI, MIA, @PHI, DET)

“You, your not as good as the King”
The Cavs are a very mediocre 8-9 in their last 17, and seem to be limping into the playoffs. They could very easily get caught by Washington and/or Philadelphia. Despite the overwhelming feeling that they are a top 3 team in the east, they are one of the most vulnerable teams heading into the playoffs. Luckily, they get Chicago and Miami next. Then a real test in Philly, before closing the season hosting a Detroit team that will probably rest most of their stars. With those two creampuff games on their schedule, Philly has no chance to catch them and Washington would have to run the table to tie. I think they get Washington in the first round either way.

5. Washington Wizards, 41-37 (Remaining Games: @DET, PHI, IND, @ORL)

I think these guys are playing their best ball of the year. I like them to run the table, and be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’ll still get their nemesis Cavs in the first round. This will be the best first round series in the East by far. There will be a ton of storylines, from Gilbert’s return to the Lebron/DeShawn Stevenson issues.

6. Philadelphia 76ers, 40-38 (Remaining Games: IND, @WAS, CLE, @CHA)

Iguodala likes to sneak up on people and (Teddy Riley Voice) “Jam!”
What is interesting is that the 4, 5, & 6-seeds will all prove their worth over the last four games of the season. Two games are of note, and both involve the Sixers. They go to Washington on Saturday, and host Cleveland on Monday. They should win their other two games. I think they lose in Washington, then come back and beat Cleveland. But they don’t move in the standings. The good news? That matches them up with the slumping Orlando Magic in the first round.

7. Toronto Raptors, 39-39 (Remaining Games: NJN, @DET, MIA, @CHI)

If they win outright, they could catch Philly. But i think they go 2-2. They would really like to move up to the sixth seed to avoid Detroit in the first round. They can beat Orlando, they have no chance against Detroit. These guys are the coldest playoff team in the East going in. They’ve won only 7 of their last 22. Another first round oust, and they are going to need some re-modeling going forward.

8. Atlanta Hawks, 36-42 (Remaining Games: @NY, BOS, ORL, @MIA)
They are not likely to catch Toronto, but with their schedule, it doesn’t seem as if Indy can catch them either. So they will probably make the playoffs, only to be destroyed by Boston in the first round. Good times!

Eastern Conference Awards

MVP
3. Chauncey Billups, DET
2. LeBron James, CLE
1. Paul Pierce, BOS
The most overlooked of potential MVP candidates, Pierce has been Boston’s MVP this year. Garnett and Allen have been great additions, but when they got hurt Pierce continued to do what he does best: keep the Celts fighting. James has put up spectacular numbers, but the Cavs would not even make the playoffs in the West.


Any Superstar who still looks for hoodrats is allright by us

Defensive Player Of The Year
3. Tayshaun Prince, DET
2. Rasheed Wallace, DET
1. Kevin Garnett, BOS
This is no surprise to anyone who has paid attention. KG’s arrival made Pierce play D, made Rondo’s D even better, and made the Celtics become the best Defensive team in the league. The two Detroit-ers come in second and third, as Detroit was the second best Defensive team in the league.

She’s just with KG cuz i picked him for DPOY!

Most Improved Player
3. Rajon Rondo, BOS
2. Dwight Howard, ORL
1. Caron Butler, WAS
Butler jumps in here to keep it from giving Boston a clean sweep so far. Howard would have been the pick for most of the year, but he has tailed off dramatically of late. Rondo had quite a stellar year in the shadows of the Big 3, and actually (in my opinion) contributed more to the team than Ray Allen (on the court at least). But Butler is the pick here for keeping the Wizz afloat all season without Gilbert. He’s a borderline superstar now, after living in the shadows of Kobe, Wade, and Gil. And this team is VERY scary heading into the playoffs.

Caron’s so dedicated, he even walks his daughter with his jersey on!

Coach Of The Year
3. Stan Van Gundy
2. Mo Cheeks
1. Eddie Jordan
Van Gundy and Cheeks did a lot to move their teams forward, but Jordan’s job was to keep the team afloat. The fact that they have the fifth playoff spot with almost no contribution from the team’s superstar is amazing. But the credit falls between Jordan, and his two secondary stars, Butler and Antawn Jamison. Jordan started the season on the hot seat, but finished leaving many coaches in awe of the job he’s done.
Eddie shows us his biceps

Rookie Of The Year
3. Joaquim Noah, CHI
2. Thaddeus Young, PHI
1. Al Horford
Al is probably going to finish second in the actual rookie of the year voting to Seattle’s Kevin Durant, but he has had just as good a year. This is especially to consider that he’s playing out of position at Center! When he gets to his natural PF position, he will dominate.

It isn’t Al’s ears that make him fly

Playoff Predictions
Round 1:
1. Boston vs. 8. Atlanta
Boston throws a lineup of PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, PF Kevin Garnett, and C Kedrick Perkins against Atlanta’s PG Mike Bibby, SG Joe Johnson, SF Marvin Williams, PF Josh Smith, and C Al Horford. The benches both look solid with Boston throwing out G/F James Posey, G Tony Allen, F PJ Brown, and some combination of G Eddie House/PG Sam Cassell. Atlanta counters with G/F Josh Childress (a sleeper sixth man of the year candidate), C ZaZa Pachulia, and G Salim Stoudemire. I’d actually call the bench even. Boston, however, has better coaching. We’ll call both guard positions a push, with Boston having the edge at SF and PF. We’ll give Atlanta a slight edge at C. Actually, i do not think this series will be as close as it may seem. Atlanta is not as good as they look on paper, and Boston is better than they look on paper. I like Boston in a clean sweep.

2. Detroit vs. 7. Toronto

Chauncey knows what seed he is
The point guard position is one to watch. Detroit throws Chauncey Billups, who was the second best in the league this year, against Toronto’s Jose Calderon/TJ Ford combination (the best combo in the league). However, Detroit has the advantage at every other position: SG Rip Hamilton over Anthony Parker, SF Tayshaun Prince over Jamario Moon, PF Rasheed Wallace over Chris Bosh (though that one could be a push ’em), C Antonio McDyess over Rasho Nesterovic/Andrea Bargnani, and Detroit has a deep and loaded bench with F/C Jason Maxiell, G/Fs Arron Afflalo and Jarvis Hayes, Gs Rodney Stuckey and Juan Dixon, F Amir Johnson, and C Theo Ratliff. Toronto throws out Calderon, Bargnani, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono. A nice bench, but not quite what Detroit has. I like Detroit in 5.

3. Orlando vs. 6. Philadelphia

Here is where things get interesting. This is a very close matchup. At the point, Philly’s Andre Miller destroys Jameer Nelson. At the 2, Willie Green and Mo Evans is a push. Philly throws Dre Iguodala against Orlando’s Hedo Turkoglu, in another push at the three. The Sixers start Reggie Evans at the four, but really Thaddeus Young gets most of the minutes. And I’m going to call him Young vs. Rashard Lewis a push as well, in a matchup of fours that are really threes. Dwight Howard beats Sam dalembert in the middle, but its’ closer than you think. Dalembert will make him work for his points, and it may take away from Howard’s defensive efficiency. And on top of that, I like Philly’s bench of Evans, Louis Williams, and Jason Smith more than Orlando’s bench of Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling (so the Magic have 3 points that can’t guard Miller or Williams), Keith Bogans (no shot against Iguodala), and Adonal Foyle. I am going to take Philly in six.

4. Cleveland vs. 5. Washington

Gil’s hoping to chop down Cleveland
The seeds might flip-flop, but whatever. Cleveland has ended Washington’s season two years in a row. But this time Washington’s more loaded than ever despite their low seed. I like the Gilbert/Antonio Daniels combo way more than Cleveland’s Delonte West/Boobie Gibson combo. I’ll also take DeShawn Stevenson/Nick Young over Cleveland’s Devin Brown/Wally Szerbiak combo. We’ll give the Cavs LeBron vs. Caron Butler, in the series’ premier matchup (though Stevenson will spend the most time on LeBron, but even if you switch Stevenson and Butler, the advantages are the same). The Cavs will throw some combination of Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Zydrunas Ilguaskas in the post positions. The first two are defensive minded low post players, with the latter two stretching the defense with their jumpshots. None of them can guard Washington’s PF Antawn Jamison. The Wizz will also throw Brendan Haywood (who is having the season of his life, so long as he doesn’t have to guard LeBron), Darius Songalia (another shooter to stretch the defense, we’ll call him the Euro-Jamison), and Andray Blatche (the team’s future in the middle, we’ll call him the black Andris Biedrins). I’d be inclined to give the Wizz the slight edge here as well. We’ll call the benches even and the coaches even. But I’m going to say, the only advantage the Cavs have is LeBron. If Caron Butler can make LeBron pay on the defensive end, it’s going to be more one-sided than anyone would think. I’m going to go with Washington in six. I think if it goes seven, the Cavs win.

Second Round

1. Boston vs. 5. Washington

For matchup reasons, Boston just hasn’t been able to beat Washington this year. The Wizz are 3-1, with the only loss featuring an obviously physically beat Gilbert shooting 5-20, while the other Wizz just stood around and watched. This is a much different Wiz team with Gil in a supporting role to Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. A Washington team without Gil beat the Celts on consecutive nights in January, and beat them by 14 the other night with Gil. Boston is not going to go out without a fight, but I’m taking Washington to surprise everyone and make their first Conference Finals appearance since 1979. I got the Wizz in 7.

2. Detroit vs. 6. Philadelphia

Detroit’s second teamers just lost a game to Philly, but don’t be fooled. They are still a class above the Sixers. I think Detroit wins this pretty easily, as Detroit is better than Philly at every position. Even Philly’s two best players (Andre Miller and Andre Igoudala) will matchup with two better players in Detroit (Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince). I like Detroit in 5.

The Eastern Conference Finals: 2. Detroit Vs. 5. Washington

I think the Wizz will give ’em a run. I like Chauncey over the Gil/Daniels combination. But really, Chauncey’s playing better than any point not named Chris Paul. And I’d probably even call that one a draw. From there, I like Rip over Stevenson, but Butler over Prince. We’ll call Sheed/Jamison a push, but give McDyess the edge over Haywood. We’ll also give Detroit’s bench the edge. But never count out Butler. Tough Juice is the heart and soul of this team, and he’ll keep fighting until the last buzzer. But in the end, Detroit rises again, 4-2.

Someone Tell Mrs. Sheed she doesn’t get a belt for winning the East

The Western Conference Tomorrow!