Dime’s Fantasy Finals Matchups

Basketball websites always has these gimmicky user-involved tournaments. Balls Don’t Lie is probably the king of these. But the best I’ve come across is Dime Mag’s Fantasy Finals. In fact I like these so much, I decided to post my thoughts on their early matchups.

2008 Lakers Vs. 1995 Magic

In Dime’s rules, everyone’s healthy and the older team has home court. Now personally, I have a somewhat low opinion of last year’s Lakers team, at least historically speaking. Fish is/was washed up. His last great year was with Utah. And I say “great” because Fish is one of the most underrated players of my lifetime. Played great D, hit clutch threes, Kobe and Shaq both trusted him, Phil trusted him. Vlad just sucked anyway. Ariza hadn’t really had his 2009 breakout year. Bynum’s soft. And Gasol needs to demand the ball more. Odom’s inconsistent. At least Vujacic and Farmar were much better last year. And they had Turiaf. Come to think of it, with the exception of Ariza, everyone on the Lakers was better last year.

This Magic team was one of my favorite NBA Finals losers. They had Shaq entering his prime, Penny in his dead-prime (which only lasted like 3 years). Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott playing out of their respective minds. Horace Grant giving it one last shot, and Brian Shaw doing all those little Brian Shaw-things. But their bench was very weak after Shaw.

The key to this series would be Odom. If he shows up every game, the Lakers probably win in 5 or 6. But since I have never seen him do that (even in Miami and with the Clippers – the playoffs were what made Wade and Brand the number one guys on those teams), I don’t think he does it here. I’d say if Kobe gets a 10 in this series, Penny’s probably an 9.5. Shaq’s a 10, Bynum’s probably a 6. I’d give Gasol a 10 if he was demanding the ball move – the dude has a sick arsenal of post moves. But since he’s so lax, he gets an 8, Ho Grant was standing on one leg at that point, he gets a 5. Since Penny and Kobe would guard each other, it’s washed up Fish vs. pussy Anderson. Fortunately it wasn’t until after 95 (when he missed the free throws) that Anderson went into a complete funk. But here he should have enough to barely edge Fish, say…..7-6. In the Vlad/Scott matchup we’ll call it even since Scott’s much more deadly, but Vlad has the size advantage, 7.5 each. The bench is where Odom comes in. I’ll give this to the Lakers, but only barely. When Odom doesn’t show up, it’s basically even. So we’ll say 8-7. Coaching-wise, Phil gets it 9-8 over Brian Hill. Totals? 46.5 for Orlando, 46.5 for the Lakers. Dead even. I’ll go with Orlando in 7. Because we know that Shaw shows up, we don’t know about Odom.  Plus the Magic get homecourt.

1998 Bulls Vs. 2007 Spurs

This is closer than you think. The most dominant NBA team of all-time goes up against possibly the most boring dynasty of all-time. At that point, Ron Harper was 2005 Derek Fisher. And Tony Parker kills him, we’ll say 9-7. MJ probably guards Ginobili, but Bowen probably guards him. We’ll say MJ gets a 10, because even though that’s got to be tiring, MJ’s sort of…well he’s the best player ever. Ginobili probably guards Pippen. So we’ll say Ginobili’s tired but still manages a 7.5. Bowen manages to be a solid 7, and Pippen’s a 9 here. Duncan gets a 10 while Rodman gets an 8, good matchup. And both of the terrible centers get 5’s because it’s really the sixth men who get play. The coaches are even at 10, but the Spurs pull the advantage off the bench with Horry, Finley and Barry over Kukoc and Kerr, 8-6. 55 for the Bulls, 54.5 for the Spurs. Bulls in 7.

2006 Heat vs. 2001 Sixers

This is a fun matchup. It’s Allen Iverson in his best season vs. Dwayne Wade in his I’m-better-than-MJ season.  One thing sticks out, Wade can sort of guard Iverson.  Iverson has no shot at Wade.  Wade’s almost as fast and about half a foot taller.  They have similar games in those seasons, but Wade is worlds better in efficiency.  Plus he has more help.  If Wade gets a 10, and Iverson a 9, the rest of this matchup is pretty one-sided.  Jason Williams, in his last effective season, beats snow, 8-7.  ‘Toine, also in his last effective season, bests George Lynch, 7.5-6.  For fun, we’ll call Haslem/Hill a tie, even though common sense would go with Haslem, 7-7.  And Shaq bests Deke, 8-6.5.  Coaching is an even 9, and the Heat’s bench still had James Posey, ‘Zo,  and GP, while the Sixers counter with Aaron McKie, a not-yet-developed Raja Bell, and a bunch of stiffs.  Heat, 9-6.  For a final total of 57.5 for a strong Heat team, and 50.5 for the Sixers.  I think the Heat sweep this.  Fun Series, but not too long.

2004 Pistons vs. 1994 Knicks

Bad matchup for the Knicks. The Pistons counter the Knicks strengths too well. Chauncey dominates Harper, 9-7. I think Rip pulls out ahead of Starks, 8.5-8. Tayshaun edges Smith 7.5-7. Rasheed pulls Oakley out of the paint, and beats him 8-7. While Ewing can only muster a 10-8.5 edge over Ben. Plus that Pistons team was deep. The Knicks’ strength was their depth, but this Pistons team was even deeper. The Pistons rolled out Corliss Williamson, Elden Campbell, Lindsey Hunter, Mike James, and Mehmet Okur. Picture that. Okur, entering his prime, was the 10th man on this team. And he’s been an all-star in this league. Anthony Mason and Greg Anthony give the Knicks the edge in a lot of series, but here they lose 10-9 Though we just called the Pat Riley/Larry Brown matchup a tie, so we’ll stick with that, 9-9. Brown gets his revenge here, 60.5-57. I think the Pistons take this in 6, they weren’t too good at breaking team’s backs, if you remember.

2008 Celtics vs. 1993 Suns

Wow, giving this a quick eyeball, it looks like the best matchup yet. KG’s best squad vs. Chuck’s best squad. Rondo/KJ. Majerle/Ray Ray. I’m giving KJ the PG edge, 9-8. But remember, KJ disappeared in the finals that year. Rondo does not disappear. He’s consistently annoying you. But KJ was better. Ray Ray gets the same slight edge on Majerle, 9-8. Mainly because, none of these guys could stop each other. But Ray Ray’s slightly better. He might be the best pure shooter I’ve ever seen. Pierce/Dumas is where the Celtics probably win the series. Pierce gets this, 10-7. Dumas was slightly underrated in memory, but also slightly overrated at the time because his numbers were better than he was. Mainly because of the system he played in – like a mid-90’s Leandro Barbosa. We’ll call KG/Barkley a tie, 10-10. Both moved on from their crappy first teams to much more loaded second squads. This was Barkley’s best year, but KG played better defense. The Centers were Kendrick Perkins vs. Mark West, and we’ll call this even at 6. As good as the Celtics’ bench was last year, the Suns’ was even better with Ceballos, Ainge, Chambers, Oliver Miller (don’t laugh, he was decent that year), and Frank Johnson, 9-8. And in Doc Rivers and Paul Westphal we have two of the most maligned coaches of all-time. They get an even 7. Final score, 58-56 Celtics. But the Suns get homecourt. I don’t know how to call this. It’s too close. Put a gun to my head? I’ll go with the Suns in 7.

2003 Nets vs. 1995 Rockets

Interesting matchup. I don’t know exactly how this’ll come out. Memory would probably tell you the Rockets were better, but let’s see because I think the Nets would give them problems. Kidd takes Kenny Smith pretty handily. Smith was one of the more underrated PG’s of the 90’s, at least he was before his TNT stint. But Kidd was the engine that made the Nets go, and 2003 was his best season. We’ll say 10-7.5. Clyde was not in his prime anymore, but still was very good. And he beats Kerry Kittles, quite easily, 9-6.5. Richard Jefferson probably beats Mario Elie, 8.5-7. They were similar players in those seasons, the difference being RJ’s defense and athleticism. K-Mart beats a young Horry, mainly on the defensive end. Most people don’t remember, but both of these guys were extremely athletic at that age. That would be a fun matchup. But K-Mart takes it, 8-7. Meanwhile, Hakeem dominates Collins, 10-6. I don’t need to say much else about that. Benches are pretty even – Deke/Lucious Harris & Aaron Williams playing over their heads/Rodney Rogers/a young Anthony Johnson vs. a young Sam I Am/Charles Jones (milk carton?)/Mad Max/Chucky Brown, 7-7. And Rudy bests Byron, 9-7. 56.5 for Clutch City, 53 for the Nets. Plus the Rockets get homecourt, so we’ll say Rockets in 6.

That was fun, we’ll do it again.

 

Stock Check

The NBA Playoffs are still in the first rounds.  But it’s time to see whose stocks have risen and dropped in the playoffs this year, leading to a comprehensive “best players of the year” list that i HOPE to write deeper into the playoffs.

Let’s start with the just-finished Denver/New Orleans Series:

UP: Chauncey Billups & Carmelo Anthony, Denver:

Probably having the most to gain from this series, Denver’s duo of all-stars’ stocks both went way up in this series for two different reasons.  Chauncey showed more ‘Melo in his game, and ‘Melo showed more Chauncey.  And right now it’s a legit question: Are either or both of these guys top 10 players in the league?  Chauncey took off from the beginning, catching fire from the tip off of game 1.  He drained three after three to help dominate this series.  Really, he played the role of Carmelo Anthony.  ‘Melo did the opposite.  He started off pretty quiet scoring-wise, but picked his spots perfectly.  Passing out of constant double-teams, playing shut-down defense on Peja, grabbing rebounds, playing all-around inspired basketball, and looking like he’s enjoying every minute of it.  ‘Melo was playing like Chauncey.  Until game 5, when ‘Melo and Chauncey went back to their familiar roles with ‘Melo dominating offensively and Chauncey rallying the troops.  When these two play like this, even the Lakers should be scared.

However it’d be difficult to find anyone on the Nuggets whose stock has dropped in this series.  (Nene, maybe?)  Just about everyone finally started playing up to their talents.  Whether it was Dahntay Jones and Kenyon Martin smothering the Hornets’ two best players, Chris Anderson soaring for blocks and rebounds (sometimes on the same shot), JR Smith nailing threes and then throwing up his three fingers so it looks like a gang sign, or Anthony Carter just looking for another guard to hit.

On the flipside, it’d be hard to see any bright side for the Hornets, but their two stars played particularly bad:

Down: Chris Paul & David West, New Orleans:

These two are on the downside for different reasons.  Let’s start with West.  He is not a legit all-star.  And after stealing Melo’s all-star nod this year, it was obvious in this series who was the better player.  In fact, I’d be surprised if he ever gets another all-star nod again.  Words can’t describe how well Kenyon shut him down.  He did not look like the David West we’ve seen for the past two years, he looked hesitant and scared.  He very rarely took that confident, catch-and-shoot style midrange shot that’s his bread and butter.  He’d always look around, scared Kenyon was going to swat his shit into the fifth row.  If David West was considered among the top 10 PF’s in the NBA earlier this season, he may possibly have fallen out of the top half.  It was just a really bad series for him.  Kenyon was in his head, as was Chris Anderson.  And they rendered him irrelevant in this series.

CP3 looked up, I’d think sometime in the first quarter of game 4.  He looked up and his team was getting their asses handed to them.  He had single-handedly given up his body and all his energy to lead them to a two-point victory in the previous game of a series his team was obviously over-matched in.  He was physically beaten, emotionally beaten, and mentally beaten.  He looked up at the scoreboard, and he finally got to thinking “there’s always next year,” and he gave up.

He didn’t give up in the sense that he didn’t play.  He still played.  Even played well at times.  But he wasn’t Chris Paul.  And you have to wonder about that.  Paul is considered by most (including myself) the best PG in the NBA and a consensus top 5 player in the league.  But Lebron or Kobe wouldn’t have just given up.  Certainly Wade wouldn’t.  Dwight Howard’s stock  may not be as high either, but at least he would’ve hit someone.  Chauncey definitely wouldn’t have given up.  You saw Deron, he played every minute of the Lakers series knowing he was out-matched, but still left it all on the court.  Same with Tony Parker against Dallas.  Rajon Rondo’s still doing it in Boston.

Chris Paul is still the best PG in the NBA until further notice, but you have to wonder about him after this series.

Utah/Lakers:

Up: Deron Williams, UTA:

It’s hard to give any sort of nod to the Lakers, since they won this pretty much as expected, so let’s focus on the Jazz. Deron Williams is for real. I questioned him in his rookie year because his performance was so streaky (ala Derrick Rose this year), but right now….he’s legit. He’s the second best PG in the NBA and is closing in on CP3 (of course we’re learning that Chauncey may be better than both of them….still). He pretty much single-handedly carried this team in this series, eventually falling in a noble defeat to the most talented team in the league.

Up: Paul Millsap, UTA:

While the Jazz did lose the series, Millsap proved to be a problem for the Lakers every step of the way.  And if Jerry Sloan ran more plays for him instead of Jarron Collins (!?), maybe the Jazz take another game.  But we’ll blame that on Sloan’s old age, instead of sadling it on Millsap.  He pretty much proved to just about everyone what I’ve suspected all along: that he’s better than Boozer, at least as an all-around player.

Down: Carlos Boozer, UTA:

While I don’t think Boozer directly effected his stock on the upcoming Free Agent market, since the Lakers were supposed to win anyway, Boozer sure didn’t help his situation in comparison to Millsap.  Millsap outplayed him in this series – defensively AND offensively.  And Boozer’s flaws defensively were never more apparent than having Pau Gasol simply dominate him.  Though to be fair, Gasol dominates everyone in the post.  And the undersized combination of Millsap and Boozer couldn’t stop the Lakers’ bigs at all.

Down: Mehmet Okur, UTA:

While it’s quite possible that the outcome may not have changed anyway, it’s hard not to notice that the Jazz were playing this series without their center when the Lakers are dominating them up front in every way possible.  Let’s get this out of the way: I’m not doubting Okur’s injury at all.  But many players are injured at this time of year, and if you can play at all in the series, you should play the whole series.  Especially when you watch your team being so easily handled on the boards and you’re the tallest guy on the team.

Cleveland/Detroit:

Up: Mo Williams & Delonte West, Cavs:

Lebron’s undersized backcourt sidekicks are the most important factor of the playoffs, let’s start with Mo.

I am now a believer.  I was as critical as anyone when the Cavs signed Mo in the offseason, but he’s proven me wrong throughout the playoffs and on through the postseason.  He’s fit perfectly into the team’s concept and proven to be the one sidekick-star Lebron’s had that is as reliable as the King is.  He hits big shots, plays good passing lane defense, and adds a ton of intangibles to a team that is my pick to win the title.  He is a legit all-star and is playing as well as any Eastern PG not named Rondo.

As far as Delonte, I was always a big fan of the kid’s, despite his uber-ghetto off-the-court life. And he’s proven me right throughout the season and well into the playoffs.  He plays great defense (especially considering he’s probably closer to 6’1″ than his listed 6’3″ and he’s guarding 6’7″ two-guards), provides necessary hustle plays, and fills up a stat sheet (points, rebounds, assists, steals, and even blocks).  With his development and the emergence of Jameer Nelson in Orlando as a legit all-star, just how good was that St. Joes team?

Down: Rasheed Wallace & Allen Iverson, Pistons:

This is a painful one for me to talk about.  But as much as I’ve been in both of these guys’ corners throughout their careers, they both turned in horrible showings in this series. I’m letting Tayshaun and Rip off the hook, and Dice played his ass off.  But these two have some explaining to do.

Rasheed pretty much stopped playing, and resorted to his typical screaming at refs.  As talented as he is, he’s always been an equally big head-case.  We thought that was mostly behind him when he joined Detroit.  But he he looked intimidated throughout the series.  Did he simply give up in game 4?  It wasn’t like Cleveland had anyone who could stop him.

Iverson probably lost the most ground out of anyone in the playoffs, and he didn’t even play.  Or perhaps I should say, because he didn’t play. It is not like the Answer to give up. But that’s how it appeared this year. Allen has been one of my favorite players in the league for years, but this year he had his first terrible year ever, and he didn’t fight through it in typical Iverson fashion. In fact, he didn’t fight much at all. It seemed like he was backed into a corner with the team’s failings and the coach wanting him to come off the bench. Instead of coming out and being the killer he’s been throughout his career, he gave up. I don’t doubt his injury was legit, but it certainly had funny timing, coming right after he was demoted to sixth man. And he’s a free agent this season, so it looks like it came at the worst time in his career.

Atlanta/Miami:

Up: Mike Bibby & Josh Smith, ATL:

The first is a long time veteran who was supposed to be done, and the other is a immature kid who looked like he’d never quite live up to his incredible potential.  Bibby’s post-Sac rejuvenation is one of the more over-looked stories of the year.  He’s been the team’s second best player all year (after Joe Johnson) and has carried the team in its’ Miami series despite JJ being MIA (get it?).  Bibby went from being outplayed by Beno Udrih (the worst starting PG in basketball) in Sacramento to being the second best player in this series.

Smith finally seems to be getting it.  Of course, the kid is still a headcase without a jumpshot.  But he plays great defense, runs down loose balls, and dunks on…well…everyone.

Down: Michael Beasley & Mario Chalmers, MIA:

So the Heat had the second pick in the NBA draft.  Who’d they pick, again?  The most NBA-ready player in the draft, you say?  Was he injured during their first round series?  No?  Sure was hard to nice him…

And where was the other rookie they had?  The kid who won the NCAA title game with his three?  He keeps fouling out?  Is 95-year-old Mike Bibby speeding faster than him from Bibbs’ wheelchair?

Dallas/San Antonio:

Jason Kidd, DAL & Tony Parker, SAS:

This series has traditionally been about Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, but this year’s was about the veteran PG’s.  Now mind you, Kidd is essentially a PG on offense only (there’s no way he’s chasing TP around for 40 minutes), but he’s still proving his worth.  Devin Harris’ emergence as an all-star put a black eye on Cuban’s trade.  But I’m pretty sure Kidd would trade an all-star nod to still be playing in May.  He still ran the offense, and most importantly, kept the scorers happy.  Dirk, Josh Howard, JJ Barea, and Jason Terry were the central scorers, but Kidd made sure they were all involved.

Meanwhile, Tony Parker went down in a blaze.  He averaged 28.6 in the San Antonio, good for second in all playoff series’, just behind Lebron’s 32. Unfortunately, after Duncan’s 20 & 8, Parker got no help whatsoever.  Part of that blame could go on him as the point guard, for failing to get his other guys involved, but most of it is just his teammates aren’t that good.  Especially without Ginobili. If there was any doubt that TP is a top 5 (at the very least) PG, it was erased in this series.

Down: Bruce Bowen, SAS & Dirk Nowitzki, DAL:

There was a time at which this would’ve been the heavily buzzed matchup of this series.  However it wasn’t to be here as both players failed to show up.  Bowen couldn’t stay on the court and Nowitzki couldn’t stay effective.  Ultimately it led to the downfall of the Spurs, but Dirk’s teammates had enough to lift up his struggles.  However things won’t get any easier for Dirk as he will draw Kenyon Martin in the next round.  And just as important, his key teammates will also get some strong defensive assignments: Kidd is in line to draw Chauncey Billups, while Jason Terry looks like he’ll draw Anthony Carter, and Josh Howard should get Dahntay Jones.

Houston/Portland:

Up: Brandon Roy, POR:

If there was any question regarding Roy’s newly-found superstar status, it was certainly answered in this series.  The Rockets have, arguably, the two best wing defenders in the league in Ron Artest and Shane Battier.  But it hasn’t mattered to Roy.  Artest called Roy the best player he’d ever covered.  I’ll tell you right now that he isn’t too far behind Kobe and Wade as the third best SG in the league.   Obviously, he doesn’t have the rings that they do, but there’s plenty of time for that.  The Rox very will may close out the Blazers at home tonight, but it won’t be without a fight from Roy.  He’s just too talented and too motivated.

Up: Yao Ming, HOU:

Scola and Brooks have played way better than anyone could’ve expected.  But its’ Yao who’s gained the most from the Rockets side.  It’s time to end this silly Yao Ming/Dwight Howard debate.  Yao is the best center in the world.  Period.  No commas.  No parentheses.  He’s the best, ok?  Live with it.  If the Rockets passed to him in the low post every single time, they’d win every game.  That’s it, he’s the best.  End of discussion.  Period.

Down: Greg Oden, POR:

He’s become sort of the joke of this series.  He’s been racking up fouls like he did in the regular season.  And with Outlaw struggling, you sort of wonder how good Portland would be a with a really good SF.  Maybe a SF like…..say, Kevin Durant?

Down: Ron Artest:

As everyone is enjoying talking about how much better the Rockets are playing without T-Mac. The little secret no one’s talking about is how little they’ve gotten out of, essentially T-Mac’s replacement, Ron Artest. You mean to tell me the Rockets wouldn’t have already won this series if T-Mac was out there? Even at 65%? Ron Artest has given you nothing in this series. Roy’s lighting him up on D, and Ron’s only scoring 13/game at 37% shooting. In his worst playoffs series, as a sixth man for Toronto, McGrady averaged 16.7 points on 39% shooting, his career playoff lows. As a starter, his worst series was two years ago when he dropped 25.3 pts on 39% shooting. Think the Rockets couldn’t use that right now? Along with his typical end-of-game heroics?

Orlando/Philly:

Up: Louis Williams & Thaddeus Young, PHI:

It is the general consensus that Philly wasn’t supposed to be close to Orlando.  In fact most experts picked a clean sweep.  However, it is also general consensus now that Philly will probably beat an Orlando team without Dwight Howard and Courney Lee, to force a game 7 in Orlando on Saturday.  Most of the credit for this surprise has gone to the team’s two Andre’s: Iguodala & Miller.  However the most efficient players have been Young and Williams, the second-tier players.  Basically, these two can score.  And yes, Miller is the veteran leader and Iguodala, well, it’s his team.   But it’s hard to ignore these two.  Young is averaging 13 on 47% shooting, while Williams is only 8 on 41 % shooting.  So it’s easy to see why they are overlooked.  But these two are leading the team with energy and defense that don’t usually show up in box scores.  But anyone watching the game can see their impact.

Down: Dwight Howard & Hedo Turkoglu, ORL

These two also moved down for different reasons.  Hedo (or “He Don’t” as  I’ve called him in his post-Kings days…which…by the way…is a nicknamed i ripped off from a Lakers fan) has been terrible in the series.  11.8 points on 33% shooting, while averaging 3 TO’s to 3 Assists and 3.4 fouls per game.  Just terrible.  Hedo’s playoffs have been a series of stinkers: 2-8 with four fouls in game one, a 3-10 night that was saved by his 9-11 from the line in game 2, a 2-5 night with 5 fouls and 5 turnovers in game 3,  a 8-11 breakout game in game 4 with 17 points, leading into a 3-14, 5 foul game in Game 5.

Dwight’s numbers, on the other hand, have been outstanding.  He’s been completely dominant and has made Sam Dalembert look like a kindergardener who just got his transformers stolen.  So with all of his dominance, why the need for the sucker punch in game 5?  That could end up costing the Magic the series.  That plus his fall on Courtney Lee rendered their most effective perimeter scorer out for the playoffs.  Altogether, the Magic could very well end up losing this series.  And while some of the blame will undoubtedly fall on Coach Stan Van Gundy.  The majority should fall on Howard.  He got himself kicked out of game 6.  He fell on Lee.  And he is going to have to make up for all of this with a monster game 7.

Boston/Chicago

Up: Ben Gordan, CHI & Rajon Rondo, BOS:

Other than maybe the Nuggets, these two have raised their respective stocks as much as anyone in the playoffs.  Rondo is leading an under-manned, beat up veteran team, and Gordon is keeping the inconsistent, young Bulls affloat.  He’s averaging 25 pts on 42% shooting in the playoffs.  And this is with a bad hammy.  He’s leading a Bulls team deeper into this series than anyone expected.  And, oh yeah, he’s in a contract year.

Rondo has been the unsung hero for the Celtics all year.  While it’s true that Pierce is still actually their best player, Rondo is a very close second, and has been even better than Pierce in this series.  How about 24.2 points on 51%(!!!) shooting to go with 10 dimes and 10 boards a game.  That’s right – Rajon Rondo is averaging a triple double in this series.  he may have passed Nelson and Harris as the elite young PG in the east.

Down: Eddie House & Stephon Marbury, BOS:

Nice performance off the bench from House and Marbury.  Combined, they are 15-50 from the field.  That’s 30%.  That’s terrible.  One would think that the Boston guards would have the advantage off of the bench.  But Kirk Hinrich is outplaying both of them.  If they don’t turn things around, the Celtics could have a long summer.

 

“In the night I hear them talk/

The coldest story ever told/
Somewhere far along this road he lost his soul….”

Why are there so many “Heartless” NBA teams?

So last night’s games affirmed a couple of things to me:

1.) The Celtics are still hungry

2.) The Lakers are really loaded

3.) The Blazers may be a tad overrated

and….

4.) The Bucks really suck.

On with the NBA preview….

19. Atlanta Hawks

Tell me, NBA experts, why you expect these Hawks to make the playoffs.  It contradicts many of the common “NBA expert” predictions.  First, they say the East is better.  Well, how are Hawks making the playoffs in the better east without their sixth man, and without gaining any rotation players?  Is a whole year of Mike Bibby going to make that big of an impact?  The Hawks are fun, until you realize that the frontcourt is confusing.  Marvin Williams is your starting 4?  And Al Horford is your starting 5?  Or is Josh Smith your 4?  Basically you have two SF’s with one of them playing the PF.  Then you start a PF at C.  This is confusing.  Luckily, the one person Bibby helps out is Joe Johnson.  I fully expect a big year from him.  But with this bench?  Or lackthereof…..this team should slide a bit this season.  Mike Woodson may get fired.

18. Dallas Mavericks

Common NBA wisdom has these guys in the playoffs.  I don’t think so.  It’s going to take a major injury to a

Ason apparently left his J at home for the playoffs again

competitor for the other D to make the playoffs.  Conventional thinking has the Nuggets as the West team on the outside looking in.  I think it’s Dallas.  This is why: The Nuggets can score (as we’ll get to later).  Who scores for Dallas? Dirk may get you 25/game, but what after that?  Are you really going to rely on Jason Terry and Josh Howard to give you 15-20 every night?  Who else? Jason Kidd? Even in his prime he wasn’t much of a scorer.  Jerry Stackhouse?  He’s done.  Erick Dampier?  You must be kidding.  Secondly, how’s this for depth?  Starting Terry on the bench gives you two reliable subs (Terry & Brandan Bass) and four reliable starters (we’ll say Antoine Wright starts for defensive purposes, but really he starts because Terry’s too small to start at the 2).  Sad thing is, they’re probably going to waste another great season for Dirk, and he’s going to complain to Mark Cuban.  They’re going to need a big trade to get into the playoffs.  Otherwise they’re also-rans in the West this season.

17. Indiana Pacers

I wanted to put these guys in the playoffs, really did.  But I juuust don’t see it happening.  One thing’s for sure: This will be a fun team to watch.  TJ Ford can certainly run, and Mike Dunleavy (*gulp*) had a career year for them.  Danny Granger is one of the most under-the-radar stars in the NBA.  And they have Jarrett Jack, one of the offseason’s most underrated acquisitions, to step in if Ford gets hurt.  Really, 1-4 they’re loaded two-deep with offensive players, and both Nesterovic and Foster can play D, hustle, and grab boards.  This is going to be an interesting team, I just don’t think the quite get into the playoffs.  I actually think that, top 8 vs. top 8, the East is better than the West this year.  But the Pacers will be the last team out.  That’s a credit to Jim O’Brien, because Obie has one of the teams with the least talent in the league on it.

16. Denver Nuggets

So this is where I have Denver.  They are, to me, the wild card of the west.  They could race out to the best record in the league, grab home court advantage, and no one would really be surprised.  “Well, they do have Carmelo and Iverson,” people would say.  “Plus that bench, with Kleiza and JR Smith!  They sure can score the basketball!  And they have a glutton of bigs!” Or they could sink quickly to the bottom, Iverson could demand a trade, Carmelo would probably be traded too, and they could end up with the worst record in the leage.  Again, no one would be surprised.  “That team was built for self destruction,” they’d say.  “George Karl can’t control them.  Carmelo’s one of the worst defenders in the league.  And Iverson’s done.”  I think they’ll end up pretty much where they have in recent years – in the middle of the pack.  But I do think Iverson gets traded.  Two places really make sense for him: Cleveland and Philly.  He would purrrrrfect in either place.  As the finisher to LeBron’s fast breaks, or as the go-to scorer that Philly needs to ascend to championship contender status.  And by the way, I do not consider Carmelo a bad defender.  I think he would be fine defending the 4.  It’s the athleticism and speed at the 3 that he does not really have.

(Tangent Alert)

That said, these are the 10 Worst Defenders in the League:

10. Monta Ellis, Warriors: He’s obviously hurt right now, but he’s just too small to guard most players, and he can’t guard the pick-and-roll so he can’t guard points.  He is just possibly the worst pick-and-roll defender in the league.  He never knows what to do.  And that’s the most elementary play in basketball!

9. Eddie Curry, Knicks: He’s big, chubby, and slow.  Doesn’t really make for a guy who can guard the athletic centers of the world.  That said, he does allright in staying in front of people.  But shouldn’t a guy that’s seven-foot block more shots and get more rebounds?

8. Brad Miller, Kings: The Kings have a couple of other players who you could argue onto this list (Kevin Martin and Beno Udrih, I’m looking at you), but Brad is the biggest culprit.  He wasn’t always a horrible defender, but since he got to the Kings he’s gotten progressively worse each season.  I’m sure it doesn’t help that he’s possibly the slowest, least athletic player in the league.  But he does so much for you on offense, that you have to play him.

7. Andrew Bogut, MIL: I think this guy is kind of the second coming of Brad Miller.  Not exactly what you expect from a first overall draft pick, but a solid player – especially offensively.  He keeps the ball moving and can hit jump shots.  That said, he has even worse footwork than Miller on defense.  And he isn’t quite as good as him on offense.  Bogut has some time to learn, but not on this Bucks team that has 3 of the 10 worst defenders in the league!

6. Steve Nash, PHO: A couple of years ago, I would’ve said that Nash isn’t as bad a defender as teammate Amare Stoudemire.  But while Stoudemire is no ace on that end, he’s learned how to use his athleticism and size to stay in front of people.  Meanwhile, Nash has gotten a little slower  – thus regressing defensively.  He may hit the tail end of his career as the worst defender in the league.  But again, he’s a two-time MVP, so I’d think he makes up for it on the other end.

5. Troy Murphy, IND: That he’s sunk to fifth in the league is a tribute to how bad of defenders the top 4 is.  Murphy is pretty horrible on the defensive end of the floor, that’s no secret.  I had season tickets his last season in Golden State.  He gets lost in the pick & roll, he gets lost on the break.  He really just has no defensive awareness.  In fact he doesn’t really have much offensive awareness, but you play him because he’s a big who can shoot.  And somehow seems to be in the right position at the right time to grab rebounds.  But they’re the type of rebounds that you look up and he as 8, and you have no idea how he got them.

4. Luke Ridnour, MIL: Ok, so Luke was always a pretty bad defender.  Even in Seattle with Nate McMillan, he managed to be pretty bad on defense, even losing his starting job to Earl Watson (who is something like 5’8!) because of defense.  When a midget is replacing you for defensive purposes, you got problems.  Now he’s looking like the starting point guard for Scott Skiles’ Bucks.  I find it hilarious that a defensive/tough-minded coach like Skiles decided to take over the Bucks, who may be the worst defensive team in history.  Should be great for shits and giggles.

3. Wally Szerbiak, CLE: Both NBA players and fans had Wally as the worst defender in the league.  I say he’s third.  Not by a wide margin, but he’s pretty bad.  He really does nothing properly on defense.  He’s really just on your team to shoot.  That’s all he does.  Plus he has an expiring contract.  That’s always nice.

2. Zach Randolph, NYK: This is where Z-Bo comes in.  I talked a bit about him yesterday and I’m sure I will talk more about him this season.  He’s one of my favorite subjects.

Yeah, that's what you get for telling Charlie to play D!

1. Charlie Villanueva, MIL: This is the battle, in particular, that looks fun.  Villanueva vs. Skiles.  The showdown in Milwaukee.  They should get a pay-per-view set up!  Villanueva’s actually so proficient on the offensive end, that it makes you scared that he still can’t get on the floor for his lack of defense.  He’s actually a possible 50 points every night.  But yes, he’s really that bad on defense.

(And Now Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Preview)

15. Portland Trail Blazers

Yes I just said that they’re overrated, and I think everyone has them here too.  But screw it.  With Oden, they end up here.  If he’s hurt for any significant time, they (and my Fantasy team) sink.  Bottom line.  This team has everything but a dominant big man.  They have the athletic big man, but not the brute strength big man.  By now I’m sure you’ve read all about the rest of the team: Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, Fernandez, Rodriguez, Webster, Blake.  Loaded.  I don’t need to go into too much other detail.

14. Phoenix Suns

When you trade for Shaq for defensive purposes, you realize that your team doesn’t really do much on that end.  Nevertheless, this Suns team is still loaded with talent.  Steve Nash, Shaq, Amare, and Grant Hill are all still there.  But Shawn Marion and Mike D’Antoni are gone.  And with the additions of Matt Barnes and Robin Lopez, they now have a pretty good bench.  Nash may have slipped, but he’s still among the elite PG’s in the league.  The Raja Bell/Leandro Barbosa combination at the 2 is still as good as any in the league.  Barnes should take some heat off Grant Hill from wearing down at the end of the year, remember, Hill played at almost an all-star level for the first half of last year.  Boris Diaw and Lopez will come off the bench for Amare and Shaq to give them a pretty solid big man rotation.  This team is still quite loaded, and could definitely make a run for it.  But it’s hard to put them higher than here, since we don’t know what the drop off from D’Antoni to Terry Porter is.

13. Washington Wizards

Everyone seems to be counting these guys out.  I’m not.  This is a very good team.  They still have Butler and Jamison, and if he ever gets healthy, Gilbert.  They still have the role players DeShawn “I Can’t Feel My Face” Stevenson, Antonio Daniels, and now Juan Dixon.  And they have the kids in Nick Young and Andray Blatche.  This is a very good team without Gilbert.  They are a Championship contender with him.  Last year they showed that they can win with defense.  With Gil they obviously can score with anyone.  Caron Butler has developed into one of the best 3’s in the league.  That leads me to my second tangent of the day:

The Top 10 SF’s in the NBA:

This is a situation where the top 4 are pretty much set in stone, then you work your way down.

10. Kevin Durant, OKC: Obviously this guy is the future of the position (I also think that, when all is said & done, Beasley will be a SF too), but he’s got a lot of ways to go.  He sure can score though.

9. Josh Howard, DAL: While I’m not sure where else to put him, Black Gumby goes here.  Unfortunately, this summe rhe let his mouth overshadow his game.  And that’s sayin somethin cuz his game is crazy hype.

8. Tayshaun Prince, DET: A difference-maker on both sides of the court.  He is among the best defenders in the game and can shoot it out from behind the stripe.

7. Shawn Marion, MIA: This may be a surprise to a lot of people, but I think he’s started his descention this past season.  This year we’ll see how he does in Miami playing next to a superstar and with a talented rook tryin to take his spot.

Danny would like you to know he's underrated

6. Danny Granger, IND: Yes, he’s really this good.  Granger has been under-the-radar since he came into the league backing up Ron Artest.  But this might be the year he really breaks out, as the Pacers will make a playoff run.

5. Ron Artest, HOU: This seems like the best spot for him at the moment.  No one’s sure what he’s going to do in Houston, but if he plays up to this ranking, they are going to be making a deep trek into the playoffs this season.

4. Caron Butler, WAS: A very solid #4 on this list, Butler has developed into the positions top two-way player.  An all-defense team-level defender and an all-star scorer, Butler can beat you in the post or the around the arc.

3. Carmelo Anthony, DEN: I like to say that he’s a more advanced offensive version of our #2 guy, but he’s not anywhere near him on D.  And that’s really the difference between the two teams as well.

2. Paul Pierce, BOS: Again, the 2/3 matchup here is pretty even.  But something tells me Pierce has a huge season, now that he’s clearly the #1 weapon out of the big 3.

1. Lebron James, CLE: You expected something else?

(And now back to the Preview)

12. Philadelphia 76ers

I know, I know.  This is where they were last year.  And I know, they added Elton Brand.  But you know, they still have the same hole they did last year.  They merely improved a part of the team that was already pretty good, and made it championship caliber – post play.  But they still need a go-to scorer, preferrably on the wing that can drop 20-25 a night and score in the clutch when needed (see: Iverson, Allen).  Just as the Nuggets never quite replaced Andre Miller, the Sixers never replaced Iverson either.  And while they have a ton of nice pieces, they still lack a number one option.  But they do have Miller at the point with Louis Williams draining it off the bench.  Iguodala is a 2/3 swingman, but he’s more of a third scorer.  Thaddyeus Young should ideally be a bench guy at this point of his career.  Elton Brand and Sam Dalembert will play really well together, though they do a lot of the same things with weakside defense.  Again, I think it’s going to come down to the trade deadline.  If they go after a number one guy, they could be right there with the Celts and Cavs.  The downside of going after Iverson: they probably have to give up Dalembert to do it.  We’ll see what happens here, things could get very interesting in Philly.  Even if they wait until the offseason, i think the chance of them landing Iverson might actually improve.  But without him, I think they’re still the seventh best team in the East.

11. San Antonio Spurs

This is another team that’s difficult to project.  It’d be easy to say “oh yea, they can get it together again once Ginobili gets healthy.”  But that’s overlooking a couple of things.  First, Duncan and Parker are going to have to shoulder this offense by themselves.  All of the role players either can’t score (Bowen, Oberto), or got old really quick (Finley, Thomas).  The result of this is Duncan and Parker are likely to be carrying assortments of injuries into the playoffs.  Secondly, this team no longer has any depth.  RC Buford has been as good of a GM as there’s been in the league.  But this team desperately needed a reloading this offseason.  And they simply didn’t get it.  They look like they could be in serious trouble going into this season.  They may fall even further than I have them right now.  Especially realizing that Duncan and Ginobili are also getting up there in age themselves.

10. Miami Heat

This is really high for them by most people’s standards.  I’m not most people.  I’m the same guy that was saying that the 2005-2007 Dwayne Wade until his injury in 07, was the best player in the league.  Offensively, this guy was Jordan reincarnated.  Now obviously Wade is a mildly average defender, and Jordan was all-world, but offensively, Wade is the closest thing to Jordan we’ve ever seen.  Beasley and Marion fill out the forward spots, but they play, essentially, the same position.  Though I do think we will mainly see them playing together, they’ll start the season with Beasley coming off the bench for Udonis Haslem.  Haslem will probably move up to Center for the majority of the time.  They do have holes at center and at the point, but Mario Chalmers and Haslem will eat most of those minutes.  This team is really the wild card of the conference.  Everyone seems to say that they’ve all gotten behind new head coach Erik Spoelstra.  And they do have plenty of talent.

9. Orlando Magic

I think they come back to the pack a bit.  It won’t really show up in the standings, as they’ll still win the Atlantic and end up with the 4-seed, but I think there are 4 teams in the East better this year.  Of course, Dwight Howard would need to dversify his offensive game in order for them to improve.  And over the Olympics, he routinely looked worse than Chris Bosh.  I know that they don’t actually play the same position, but they tend to guard each other.  Bosh also has a better supporting cast.  Though I do think Hedo has developed into a stud, the rest of the team leaves a lot to be desired.  Rashard Lewis is a mediocre player with a superstar’s salary.  Jameer Nelson and Keith Bogans form the least potent backcourt in the league.  And bench?  What bench?

8. Toronto Raptors

Thus I put Bosh’s Raptors right ahead of Howard’s Magic.  Bosh is another of those silent superstars.  This kid is really good.  And he has a very good team around him.  Jose Calderon is a budding star, Anthony Parker is very solid, and Jamario moon can jump over anyone.  Then there’s the team’s x-factor in Jermaine O’Neal.  He can give them a defensive boost and complement Bosh in the post.  If he works out for them, they should challenge for the title.  If he doesn’t, they still probably end up here.  Jason Kapono can shoot the lights out and Andrea Bargnani does a little bit of everything off the bench.  So this team’s biggest weakness is depth.  But Bosh has gotten really good and caused me to make another tangent.

The 10 Best PF’s in the NBA:

10. Carlos Boozer, UTA: Slightly overrated, but he’s very good.  Might be in Miami next year playing with Wade and Beasley.  Now wouldn’t that be a team?

9. Pau Gasol, MEM: Somwhat weak-minded.  I could see him disappearing into a secondary role with the Lakers as the season progresses.

Antawn's been pumped since he left the Warriors

8. Antawn Jamison, WAS: Slightly under-rated.  Jamison creates matchup problems with his shooting, and goes to the boards and plays D better than he ever has before.

7. David West, NOH: Very good player, but I’m not ready to put him ahead of Brand.  He doesn’t play D quite as well.  He does score better than him, but doesn’t play D or rebound as well.

6. Elton Brand, PHI: He has to show me he’s fully healthy before he can even sniff the top 5.  But with West on his heels, he might not even be 6 for long.

5. Amare Stoudemire, PHO: He’s actually #1 if we’re talking stats, but with his defensive weaknesses and injuries I’m keeping him lower.

4. Chris Bosh, TOR: Bosh has grown into himself finally.  And this kid is a freakin monster.  Bosh will give you scoring, rebounding, energy, physicallity, and he can run or post.

3. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL: At one point, I considered him the second best player in the league.  He’s not quite there anymore, but being third at the most top-loaded position in the league is not bad either.

2. Tim Duncan, SAS: The Duncan/KG argument can continue in terms of legacies, but it’s pretty clear that TD is slipping at this point.  He’s not quite as good of a defender, and can’t score or pass as well.

1. Kevin Garnett, BOS: KG is still the best defending big man in the league (though a healthy Jermaine O’Neal would challenge him), and he still drops 18 and 12 every night.  Oh and he finally won a ring.

(Now back to the preview)

7. New Orleans Hornets

David West is very good.  Chris Paul is very good.  Tyson Chandler and Peja Stoyakovic are pretty good as well.  But what about the rest of the roster?  Ehhh….James Posey fills out the starting lineup, but an injury to West, Paul, or Chandler would be devistating.  And even with them, I don’t know how they beat Utah or L.A.  And who knows about Houston.  I think they over-achieved a bit last season, but they should make it up this year.  I see them as another second round playoff team (they are the new Suns).  Paul in particular should take a step backwards this year.  But he’ll still have a very good season.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the other three had better years this season.  Actually I think they will.  Very good team.  Not quite championship caliber.

6. Utah Jazz

Deron's so much better than Parker, he shoves it in his face!

Like his buddy CP3, I see D-Will going out in the second round.  The Jazz, as a team, play over their heads.  Only D-Will is really that good.  And he really doesn’t get the credit he deserves.  He makes Boozer, Okur, and Brewer look better than they really are.  Well, he and Jerry Sloan.  I see Boozer playing the second half with a foot out the door.  Ak-47 should really start at the 4 for this team.  Or Paul Millsap.  Bozer can leave, they have 2 PF’s here that might actually play better without him.  The swingman spots are a bit of a hole, with Brewer being the best of the bunch.  Matt Harpring’s age is finally catching up with him, and Kyle Korver is almost exclusively a three-point specialist.  But Sloan is good at getting the most out of his players, and with a pass-first PG in D-Will, these guys should all be kept happy with plenty of shots.  If you continue to wait for the Jazz to go away, they won’t.  This is a very good team, and they still will be very good for the seasons to come.

5. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are as deep as they’ve ever been.  But you wonder if all those deep playoff runs are wearing down the starters.  Amir Johnson looks to get more looks this year, and with Stuckey and Maxiell, this young bench is only getting better.  But despite the offseason promises, Joe Dumars made no real move of interest.  The same Billups/Hamilton/Prince/Wallace/McDyess starting 5 still remains.  Dice might be out of the starting lineup this year, and wither Johnson or Maxiell are likely to replace him.  Dice just isn’t enough of an option on offense anymore to keep him in there.  Maxiell (offense) and Johnson (defense) are each more of specialty players at this stage of their careers, but either would fit the starting 5 fine as Rasheed Wallace, the other starting big, is a threat at both ends of the floor.  As are the rest of the starting 5.  Each seems to be slipping a bit (with the exception of Prince), but they are all still right around all-star-caliber players.  Look for the Pistons to make another deep run, but ultimately fall short of yet another Conference Finals appearance.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Here’s what I don’t like about putting these guys here: I think last year’s squad was better than this year’s.  But I think the Pistons have slipped enough to put the Cavs into the #2 spot.  To me, Mo Williams has nice numbers, but is not an upgrade over Boobie Gibson and Delonte West in terms of wins for the team.  Of course if they make the Iverson trade, all bets are off.  But even if they got him, I still don’t think they’re beating Boston.  I could sit here and talk about how great LeBron is, but he still needs more help.  The Cavs don’t have nearly the talent around him that their rivals in Detroit and Boston do.  This seems like beating a dead horse, but lets look at the three major players they got in last year’s trade deadline deal; Ben Wallace, West, and Wally Szerbiak.  Szerbiak is a taller version of Damon Jones.  He can shoot, but can’t do anything else.  And he probably doesn’t shoot the 3 as well as Jones.  Wallace was an entirely defensive player in his prime, and at this point is slipping every year.  And West is a very strong defender, but doesn’t really have an offensive position.  This is a team of a bunch of loose parts and role players, but none of which really fit together around the superstar.  But even with that, LeBron is so good that chemistry has gone out of the window and the team competese for a title every year anyway.

3. L.A. Lakers

This might be a huge suprise to some, but I have them going down in the Conference Finals.  I just think something’s got to give with these guys.  Lamar’s unhappy coming off the bench (he’s in a contract year).  I see Pau being resigned to being an understudy.  Bynum still has little offensive game.  And sans Kobe, the second team might be better than the first team.  But with all that said, they’re just too talented not to get far in the playoffs.  I think they need more of a systematic approach, and don’t doubt that Phil Jackson will eventually give it to them, but not this year.  The Lakers will look like the best team in the NBA for stretches, even dominating at times.  But they eventually go down in the Conference Championship to….

2. Houston Rockets

Any excuse to throw up this classic

Yes, Ron Artest is a headache.  But every team he’s been on has been significantly better immediately.  That’s great news for Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, as the new big 3 will be taking over the Western Conference.  Much has been made about Tracy’s Paul Pierce-like transition into a team player from an individual superstar.  Yao is the best center in the league (Dwight Howard, get back to me when you learn some offensive moves), and Ron provides a star third scorer.  Shane Battier is the best defensive player in the game.  Rafer Alston is the heart and soul of the team, a gunner with a never-say-die attitude.  Luis Scola and Carl Landry were so great at combining at Power Forward, that they decided to re-unite and do it again.  But this time they have reinforcements in Joey Dorsey and Chuck Hayes.  The wing spots are deep too with Luther Head, Brent Barry, and Aaron Brooks coming off the pine.  This team is so loaded, they couldn’t find room for Dikembe Mutombo to come back.  T-Mac has the team he’s always wanted.  Actually, he has a team that just about everyone has always wanted.  Now it’s time to prove your worth.  You too Yao.  Ron’s been to the Conference Finals before.  He’s seen what it took.  Now you guys have to go take him to the promise-land.  But in the end I have them coming up juuuuust short.

1. Boston Celtics

The Lakers and Cavs are the trendy picks because of Kobe and LeBron.  The Hornets and Rockets are the fun picks because they resemble the Suns and Heat of the past.  The Jazz and Spurs are the boring picks that are there every year, but no one wants to make them.  But the Celtics are still the best team.  And that’s really all there is to say.  Kevin Garnett?  Still in his prime.  Still a super-duper-star.  Still the best PF in the game (see above).  Paul Pierce?  Also still in his prime.  Now a super-duper-star.  The second best SF in the game (see above).  Ray Allen?  Past his prime a bit.  But still has a ton left in the tank.  Still one of the best pure shooters in the game.  Rajon Rondo?  Very good point guard.  Already among the upper tier of PGs.  Plus they have the Bynum/Howard-type center in Kendrick Perkins, who I might mention, is a freakin monster.  And Perkins and Rondo are just getting better.  Plus they got Bill Walker, a personal favorite, who can jump over skyscrapers.  Plus that bench, Big Baby, Leon Powe, Eddie House, Gabe Pruit should make a splace.  This is a championship caliber team.  No, this is a multiple championship-caliber team.  And I like them to win #18.

 

When they reminisce over you…..

So it has been brought to my attention that Nuggets fans are criticizing the trade for Renaldo Balkman. It strikes me as odd that people still haven’t figured out that this guy can play. To prove my point, I think it’s time to revisit the Lottery of the 2006 NBA Draft. If it were to be re-done, how would it go?

1. Toronto picks Brandon Roy, G (Washington) [actual selection: 6, Portland]

Think the Raptors wouldn’t like to have Roy now?  Now that the swingman position is their weakest link as a team?  Sure Bargnani is a nice option to have as a sixth man, but a first overall pick?  Roy is the only all-star from this draft class thus far.  Though two or three of the other guys could end up being there.  But Roy is hands down the first pick overall if we were to re-tool this draft knowing what we know now.

2. Portland picks LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C (Texas) [actual selection: 2, Chicago – but dealt to Portland immediately]

That Portland ended up with the two best players from this draft is not particularly surprising, knowing what we now know about their GM.  Neither is the fact that Aldridge, who was picked second, is the second best player of his class today.  What is surprising is how much better he’s been than the man he was traded for – fourth pick Tyus Thomas.

3. Charlotte picks Rudy Gay, SG/SF (UConn) [actual selection: 8, Memphis]

Everything Charlotte was looking for out of their three position – a young player with huge upside who can score in bucketloads – ended up being taken 5 spots lower.  Gay still has the most pure talent out of this draft class, and it’s still mind-boggling how he fell to eight.  We knew how talented he was then! Of course the guy that Michael Jordan actually did select is probably going to be out of the league this offseason.

4. Chicago picks Rajon Rondo, PG (Kentucky) [actual selection: 21, Boston]

At the time the draft was done, I personally considered Rondo and Marcus Williams the two best points in the draft by far.  It absolutely shocked me how far both of them fell.  Especially considering how high the previous class’ points were taken.  So it doesn’t surprise me in the least that Rondo is the first one in this class to get a ring (there have been only two titles since this draft – and San Antonio, who won the other, didn’t have a first round pick).  He is the ultimate team-first point guard.  His main concern was that he couldn’t shoot.  Well, he still can’t.  But he sure can bling!

5. Atlanta picks Daniel Gibson, PG (Texas) [actual selection: 42, Cleveland]

This is probably the best draft pick that Cleveland’s made since LeBron.  Plucking Boobie Gibson out of the second round was a perfect set-up.  He is an almost-perfect role player alongside LeBron.  Sure he’s not going to wow anyone on either side of the ball.  But boy can he shoot.  And in a weak class, he’s probably the fifth best player.  Especially for an Atlanta team that he would fit perfectly on next to Joe Johnson, who is sort of a poor-man’s Lebron.

6. Portland picks Randy Foye, PG (Villanova) [actual selection, 7, Minnesota]

Foye is one of the few solid starters in this draft.   He gets the nod over Brewer here because Portland – while they have a lot of points, none are established – has three established players on the wings.  Even without Roy (who in this case would be in Toronto), the wing isn’t really a need.  Point guard, however, is really their only hole.  But this draft was secretly about how loaded Portland was beginnig to become.

7. Minnesota picks Ronnie Brewer, SG (Arkansas) [actual selection, 14, Utah]

Brewer is a perfect fit in Utah, and he would answer one of Minnesota’s many holes.  Actually, I put him here because he’s the best player available and Minnesota has holes everywhere but the post.  Brewer, very much in the Rondo-mold, does not shoot well but does just about everything else very well.

8. Memphis picks Leon Powe, PF (Cal) [actual selection, 49, Boston]

Everyone remembers Portland’s draft, but Boston had a quietly significant draft as well.  Powe and Rondo turned out to be key components on last year’s title team.  Powe was, essentially, the team’s first big man off the bench.  With Posey gone, he will probably become a more pure sixth man.  To be honest, the team’s most effective offensive lineup is sliding KG to center, and throwing Powe in at the four.  He is, very quietly, one of the most efficient bigs in the league.

9. Golden State picks Paul Millsap, PF (Lou. Tech) [actual selection: 47, Utah]

See how Golden State actually picked Patrick O’Bryant in this spot?  See how he did absolutely nothing?  Now imagine Millsap here.  They’d probably be in the playoffs last season.

10. Seattle picks Renaldo Balkman, PF (South Carolina) [actual selection: 20]

While everyone hated on it at the time, Isiah actually made a very good pick.  In this scenario, knowing that they’d get Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Westbrook down the road, Balkman is a very good hustle-guy compliment to form a very good nucleus.  Here, your 1-4’s are set for the next 10 years (barring injury).  So do i think the Nuggets could use him.  He’s sort of like a more athletic Najera.  And in this poor of a draft, he is one of the 10 best players.

11. Orlando picks Andrea Bargnani, F (Italy) [actual selection: 1, Toronto]

This feels like the right spot for Bargnani.  He is a very good player at times.  But he’s inconsistent and probably a bottom-rotation guy at best right now.  He still does have some upside, but he hasn’t shown why we should believe he’ll ever quite get there.  In this case, he backs up Rashard Lewis, and he doesn’t need to bring it every night.

12. New Orleans picks Jordan Farmar, G (UCLA) [actual selection: 26]

Sure they’d just picked a PG the year before, but they’re quite loaded anyway, and this is a horrible draft.  Farmar is by far the next best player on the board.  He probably backs up both guard positions and allows them to let Pargo leave this current offseason.

In retrospect, the complete flops:

3. Adam Morrison to Charlotte (Gonzaga) – Though he still seems to have a following, he sucks.  If he’d shown any flashes at all his rookie season, J-Rich would probably still be a Warrior.

4. Tyus Thomas to Portland (then traded to Chicago)(LSU) – It’s funny how Thomas is a second banana to Big Baby on a Final Four run, but Thomas gets all the draft-hype and gets picked #4 while Davis goes in the second round the next year.  Then Big Baby ends up the better pro.  But there’s home for Tyus, he’s still very young and raw.  But he seems to have fallen out of favor in Chicago and it might be time to send him packing.

5. Sheldon Williams to Atlanta (now with Sacramento)(Duke) – It’s funny that the bottom three of the top 5 all ended up sucking.  And the top pick wasn’t particularly impressive either.  now that‘s a shitty draft.

9. Patrick O’Bryant to Golden State (now with Boston)(Bradley) – You’ve gotta be pretty bad for a team as big-man-starved as the Warriors to completely give up on you

I’m reserving judgement on the last 3 lottery picks of that year (Saer Sene, JJ Reddick, and Hilton Armstrong) just because for one reason or another (injuries for Sene, being behind all-stars for Reddick and Armstrong), they’ve had the deck stacked ahead of them.  So it’s not really fair to judge what they can/can’t do just yet.  But if I was a betting man, I’d think all of them turn out to be journeymen, with Sene probably out of the league quite soon.

 

NBA Rundown

Every year the NBA takes a week or so off before free agent signings are allowed to be announced. This of course, is the busiest part of the NBA offseason. This also coincides with rookies and young players’ getting more burn than most normally would in the Summer Leagues. So much going on, we’ll have to give you a rundown, first by team:

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have been as quiet a team as there has been in the NBA. They had no draft picks, their summer league doesn’t start until Utah on the 18th, and they have made no signings (of players, though Coach Woodson did get re-signed). However they have two marquee free agents in Josh Childress and Josh Smith. Childress has no real offers on the table (though why someone like Miami or Boston isn’t after him is beyond me), but should start getting more now that Corey Maggette has signed with G-State and Mickael Pietrus is with Orlando. He is normally targeted as the fourth swingman available (after Maggette, James Posey, and Pietrus). His summer is just starting. But Mr. Smith is now the most sought after Free Agent left. Elton Brand’s signing with Philly leaves the early favorites without the cap room to sign him. However the L.A. Clippers are major players, and if Chris Mullin ever comes to his senses, he should now be G-State’s #1 target.

Boston Celtics: As i mentioned, James Posey is the second targeted swingman in Free Agency. One could argue he was just as sought-after as Maggette because of his championship credentials. However I’d think there are only three teams with a realistic shot at him: Boston, Miami, and Detroit. Ultimately I think he eventually re-ups with Boston, and Childress goes to MIA. But even if Posey leaves, rookie Bill Walker should be able to make up his offensive numbers. It’d be nice if they could get PJ Brown and Eddie House to come back as well, though it seems doubtful at this point. Most of this team’s improvements will likely come from their kids (Rondo, Perkins, Powe, Davis) getting better from within. Though Chris Anderson is in talks to join the team, in case you don’t know he’s one of my favorite players in the league.

Charlotte Bobcats: There is little news out of Larry Brown’s crew either. He has his PG in DJ Augustin (that seems to mean that Ray Felton is now available), and their only free agent that they really want back is Emeka Okafor. And even that’s not as important as you would’ve thought a couple years ago. But Okafor seems like a player who Brown would absolutely love, and, more importantly, vice versa. But of course, the Clips and W’s could make a run at Okafor (as should be the case with all FA big men).

Chicago Bulls: The selection of Derrick Rose with the first overall pick led the Bulls’ guards to scurry. Duhon is gone to NY. Hinrich could follow out of town (if a deal can be worked out – probably including Tyus Thomas), probably to G-State. Of course, Rose actually has to play. He was manhandled in the first Summer League game by Mario Chalmers (as were Thomas and Joakim Noah by Michael Beasley). Rose played a little better in the second game, as did Thomas. But the star of the Summer so far has been Demetris Nichols, whose now dropped 29 points in 2 games. He might be worth bringing back after all. Of course, the team still has to decide what to do with Deng and Gordon. Lots to think about in Chicago.

Cleveland Cavs: The Cavs had thrown their hat in the James Posey chase, but I don’t see him going to Cleveland. They’re also rumored to have looked into Monta Ellis (he’s not going anywhere), Devin Brown is gone, and it looks like they could be after Carlos Delfino. But really, the Cavs made their biggest move at the trade deadline. It may take a while before we really see the true outcome of that deal.

Dallas Mavericks: Rick Carlisle has definitely begun his tenure on the right foot. He seems to be making a hard push for Sac’s Ron Artest. They picked up Gerald Green and re-signed Diop. They’re also one of the teams that’s putting their nose into Houston and Denver to see if they can’t get one or the other to part with (my 2 favorite players) Carmelo Anthony and Tracy McGrady. But those are fairly unlikely.

Denver Nuggets: After another first round exit, one has to wonder if George Karl is the right coach for this team. The team seems to be wondering about Karl and ‘Melo. In my opinion, improvement for this team is not going to come externally. They have as talented a team as there is in the league. You’ve got a young budding superstar, who is an impossible matchup on offense (Melo); a top 50 player of all-time (AI), the best (or at least top 3) defensive player in the league (Camby), a former all-star who lost his athleticism but is still a lock-down defender to either Forward spot (K-Mart), another near-lockdown defender off the bench (Nene), a streaky outside shooter who can drop 40 at any moment (JR Smith), another ace outside shooter who can also bang (Linas Kleiza), and a free agent (who wants to come back) classic hustle guy (Eduardo Najera). Plus they look liek they are going to bring back Anthony Carter and sign Anthony Johnson to compete for the starting PG spot. But it all starts with Melo. But in terms of being a leader on this team and on the defensive end. If he shows he’s willing to commit to doing all the little things it takes to win (ala Paul Pierce last year), they’ll finally reach their talent level.

Detroit Pistons: After another EC Finals disappointment, Joe Dumars promised “big changes.” So far nothing of the sort has come. All they’ve done is replace Flip with Michael Curry. Anyone could’ve seen they needed to do that. They’ve tried to lure ‘Melo from Denver and T-Mac from Houston, but so far no luck. They went after Maggette and Pietrus, but each ultimately went elsewhere for more money. They were rumored to have a deal for Baron Davis had he re-signed with G-State. But that fell through when he went to the Clips. They halfway went after James Jones, but he ended up in Miami. Honestly, this is not a team that needs to make big changes. But we’ll see what happens.

Golden St. Warriors: Lots of stuff going on in Oakland. To summarize: Baron surprises everyone by opting out and signing with the Clips, W’s go after Arenas and Brand but are turned down, they drop $8-10 mil/year on Maggette, they throw a $4 mil offer sheet at Ronny Turiaf, and are now in discussions with Keyon Dooling (one of my favorite names in the L). Of course, what they should just do is: trade Al Harrington to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich straight up (unless they can also get a pick out of it), then turn around and spend whatever they can (keeping $18 mil under the luxury tax to re-sign Biedrins and Ellis), on Josh Smith. But that might just be the most logical thing to do, not what Mullin will do. Ideally, Maggette, Turiaf, and Dooling are bench players. But who knows what is going to happen here. They say Smith’s not on the team’s radar. But they also said that about Maggette, the day before they signed him.

Houston Rockets: Not much going on in Houston. Honestly if I’m the Rockets, i probably have too much talent on my roster. I’d be looking to deal some of my second-line guys (like Donte Green, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head) for a third-banana on offense. As much as I like Rafer, he probably isn’t a third banana on a playoff team. But he complements T-Mac very well. So I’d say, you probably want a third banana who can play well with Yao at the 2, 3 or 4 (T-Mac can switch between the 3 and 4). Next, you DO NOT deal T-Mac. Period.

Indiana Pacers: This is an unusual bunch. They’ve taken 7 new players in. In case you haven’t kept track, the team traded Jermaine O’Neal and Ike Diogu, and let David Harrison walk. They’ve also taken in Jarrett Jack, Josh McRoberts, Brandon Rush, TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston, and Roy Hibbert, which gives them 16 players. Their Depth Chart now looks something like this:
PG: Ford/Jack/Jamaal Tinsley
SG: Mike Dunleavy/Rush
SF: Danny Granger/Marquis Daniels/Shawne Williams
PF: Troy Murphy/McRoberts
C: Jeff Foster/Nesterovic/Hibbert
Likely Gone and/or D-League: Travis Diener, Shane Graham, Baston.
Jack becomes their sixth man, and they now have 4 white big-men, which probably leads the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rush ends up stealing Dunleavy’s starting spot.

LA Clippers: Here’s a team searching for answers. They signed Baron Davis with dreams of pairing him with Elton Brand and/or Corey Maggette. Well, Brand bolted to Philly. Maggette to G-State. Now what? They’re after Josh Smith and Emeka Okafor. Stay tuned here, something’s gotta be on the way….

LA Lakers: Probably not much going on here. After they decide whether or not to match G-State’s offer, they will turn their attention to re-signing Sasha Vujacic. Then all eyes will be on Andrew Bynum’s return. Unless Odom is moved to Sacto for Artest, it doesn’t seem like much is going on here.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizz have a ton of young Wings/Points. A trade would seem plausible. You have Crittenton and Lowry backing up Conley. Both could very well be starting-level points. I would probably say Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo are untouchable. But if teams with bigs come calling for anyone else, the Grizz would have to at least consider it.

Miami Heat: Miami has done quite well for itself this offseason. The Beasley pick was a no-brainer. But it looks like Mario Chalmers might be quite a player for them at the point. It is also reported that they are about to land ace sharp-shooter James Jones from Portland as a Free Agent. So the question becomes: what are they going to do with Marion. Anyone who is even remotely close to the Heat insists that it’s not a question of whether he’ll be traded, its who and to whom. We’ll see. A mega-deal may well be on the way out of Miami. The team has needs at PG and Center, with a glutton of 2-4 players.

Milwaukee Bucks: This is a team in need of defense. And while RJ is an upgrade at the 3, last year was the worst in his career defensively. No one on this team played d last year. You can go up and down the roster, and only Desmond Mason even plays a lick of D. The drafting of Joe Alexander gives them a logjam at the 3. The team has been pretty quiet since draft day. But right now they look like one of the worst teams in the league.

Minnesota T-Wolves: The T-wolves are stockpiling assets. That’s the only logical assumption that can be made for a team with 5 rotation-quality 2-guards. Their depth chart projects starting 3 shooting guards (Randy Foye, Mike Miller, and Corey Brewer) and 2 undersized power forwards (Al Jefferson and Kevin Love). Nice. McHale said the team remains active in trade discussions. “I don’t think we’re done,’’ he said. I’d hope not.

New Jersey Nets: Okay, so I actually like the deal for Yi. A VC trade has got to be coming up. It’s the only way they rid themselves of all the big contracts. To the Clips? They are heavy on the trail of Andres Nocioni. And they are making Nenad Kristic available (not surprising considering his injury history and the recent trade for Yi). All is not settled in Jersey (soon to be Brooklyn). Their lineup for this year currently projects to: Devin Harris/VC/either Bobby Simmons or CDR/Yi/either Lopez or Sean Williams. But let’s be real, they are clearing contracts for 2010 so they can make pitches for the threesome of LeBron, D-Wade, and CB4. They almost shocked the world and traded for Carmelo. Almost.

New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets have given CP3 a well deserved extension. They’ve also thrown their hat into the James Posey mix. Otherwise, they’ve been pretty quiet. They’re not going to sign anyone else until the first batch of FA’s is done with. They don’t need to improve too much, and they don’t have a lot of money to throw around.

New York Knicks: After signing Chris Duhon, the Stephon Marbury-era is all but over. He is the anti-Marbury. He does not have the overwhelming talent that Marbury does, but he is a steady hand at the point. But you have to worry about the defense of a Duhon/Crawford backcourt. To be honest, it will be a fun year in the Big Apple. Who knows how D’antoni is going to react to his new team, and vice versa.

Oklahoma City Sonics: This team has a shiny new Point Guard to run the team. A fast break of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Jeff Green sounds pretty good on paper, we’ll have to see how it plays out in real games (although they did tear up the team’s Summer League Game yesterday, that’s something they’re supposed to do. They’re the three best players on their team in a league with mostly lower level NBA players). There’s no way that they keep all those bigs as long-term projects too, so someone’s gonna havta go. My two cents: keep Collison, Elson and DJ White. Trade everyone else.

Orlando Magic: Honestly, they overpaid for Pietrus. But Courtney Lee will make a nice starting 2-guard for them. He’s lighting up the summer league. Really what they could use is some depth up front, but with the Pietrus signing and their cap status, nothing else is likely to happen. Except JJ Reddick is likely gone.

Philadelphia 76ers: Ahh Philly. A team with only 7 players under contract. Fortunately for them, one of them is named Elton Brand. The next step is to re-sign Andre Iguodala, then fill the roster with role players. One would think they’ll bring back Louis Williams and Shavlik Randolph, then sign their draft pick and maybe one or two minimum salary players. In my opinion this team needs a shooter (Reddick?). But otherwise, they’re primed for a deep playoff run.

Phoenix Suns: The Suns didn’t need much. But the team only has 10 players under contract (if you include first round pick Robin Lopez). But they have some huge salaries that put them deep into the luxury tax. Who knows how this team is going to react to its’ new coach. But Lopez is a nice piece as a first big off the bench for when Shaq and/or Amare get in foul trouble.

Portland Trail Blazers: This team is so loaded going into this season, James Jones wouldn’t have gotten off the bench. They are just loaded with young bigs and points, which is what every team is after. But they also dont have any weaknesses. Plus they have Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and LaMarcus Aldridge as emerging star. I swear, If I’m the Lakers or Hornets, I’ve got my eye on the Blazers for the next few years. I don’t imagine them doing too much in the meantime.

Sacramento Kings: My beloved Kings have been all over the rumors in deals involving Artest for Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, and Lamar Odom. But thus far all they’ve done is draft Jason Thompson and re-sign Beno Udrih. Apparently the Odom/Artest trade would have already gone through if the Lakers were willing to take Kenny Thomas’ contract back. Until the Artest situation gets settled, no one knows for sure what this team is going to be. But at the moment without Artest, they have:
PG: Udrih, Sean Singletary
SG: Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia, Quincy Douby
SF: John Salmons, Patrick Ewing Jr
PF: Mikki More, Jason Thompson, Sheldon Williams
C: Brad Miller, Spencer Hawes
IR: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kenny Thomas
Notice that I gave them a separate IR position for two guys who aren’t likely to play, but are too expensive to cut or waive. Douby gets his final chance to prove why the Kings should keep him. Salmons is probably close to that boat too, though he was the Kings’ best player for a lot of last season. Ewing Jr is in there exclusively for defense. We’ll have to see how the Artest situation plays out.

San Antonio Spurs: They went after Maggette but were ultimately out bid. Finley is probably gone. Barry too. Horry is definitely. They need to get younger, but they don’t really have the means to do so. Kurt Thomas will likely return, but he’s old too. They will probably try to grab some of the second batch of free agents, as they currently only 9 guys under contract for next season.

Toronto Raptors: Trading for Jermaine O’Neal took a lot of balls. I can’t front. I’m quite impressed with Toronto’s front office for this. They now field a starting lineup of Jose Calderon/Anthony Parker/Jamario Moon/Chris Bosh/Jermaine O’Neal. If O’Neal works out for them, they’re challenging the Celtics. If not, they’re still about as good as they were last year. They’re way over the salary cap now. But fuck it. Go for the gusto. I love the trade. You now have three current/former/should be all-stars, a super-athletic swingman, and a lockdown defender and three-point ace.

Utah Jazz: There’s not much action in Utah. Next summer is the big one for the Jazz, when Boozer, Williams, and Okur are all free agents. Personally, I’d give let Millsap show what he can do before i re-upped Boozer. Re-signing Williams is an obvious, even if it takes the Max. Okur can walk though.

Washington Wizards: The Wiz re-signed Arenas and Jamison. Everything else is pretty much secondary on this squad. Id think Roger Mason is returning too. If the starting 5 stays healthy, and Blatche and Young continue to improve; watch out.

 

12 Things We’ve Learned From……

….The NBA Play-offs So Far….

DeShawn can’t feel his face! Word to Weezy & ‘Elz! (When’s the album dropping, already?)

1. Cleveland @ Washington, Game 3….. was one of the coolest pop-culture hype sessions. Everyone from Colin Powell to Soulja Boy showed up cheering on the Wizz. Unfortunately the game wasn’t nearly as good. The Wizz completely destroyed the Cavs.

2. DeShawn Stevenson…..is one going to be a cult-hero to everyone who is sick of LeBron-mania. And he has made a name for himself with this media back-and-forth with LeBron. But what i like about him is this: The Wiz were damn scared of LeBron. No one embodied that more than Brendan Haywood. In the midst of a career season, Haywood seemed to freak out completely when he realized he had to guard LeBron off the pick-and-role in February. So in the two teams’ final game of the season, Stevenson guards LeBron, stops him, and calls him overrated. More than just creating a media frenzy, it really got his teammates fired up. They don’t seem scared of him anymore, because they trust Stevenson to deal with him, and Stevenson has the balls to do it. That and every time I make a jumpshot when i play basketball, I’m going to do that “I Can’t Feel My Face” gesture. The Wiz could lose the next two, but Stevenson’s place in lore has been solidified already. Plus when he’s on, they have the best offensive starting 5 in the East (yep, even better than the Pistons).

3. Caron Butler,……not Gilbert or LeBron, is the most important player in that series. He’s the heart-and-soul, and the leader of that team. And when he gets going, the team gets going. Sometimes when Gilbert’s hot, the rest of the team has a tendancy to stand around and bask in his glory. But when Caron’s hot, it fires everyone up. And if the Wiz are to come back and win this series, he’s gonna have to get hot three times in the next four games.

4. LeBron James…..needs to be forced into long jumpshots or sent to the line. Call it the “LeBron rules” that a very un-defensive Wiz team has used on him. It worked to smaller degrees in the first two games, but worked almost to perfection in game 3.

5. Toronto/Orlando……might be the best actual series, despite the hype around Washington/Cleveland. The Bosh/Howard matchup is great. I think they represent the future of the league, and have had a very quiet but nonetheless great, rivalry since Howard came into the league a year after Bosh. Bosh always saves his best games for Howard, and Howard has always struggled in Toronto. Could Bosh be Superman’s kryptonite? We’ll have to see. But if TJ Ford plays like he did last night, the Raps are going to win this series. But if he is rendered ineffective, they don’t have a shot.

6. Al Horford.…..is the only Hawk who seems to have the balls to stand up to KG and the Celtics. Bibby is getting demoralized by Rondo. And the thing is, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce aren’t even playing that well. The Hawks just seem to be that intimidated by KG.

7. The Sixers’ Backcourt…….can hang with the Pistons’. Its’ the front court where they’re in trouble. The Andres have/will play Rip and Chauncey to an almost standstill. But as usual, its the Sheed that will put them over the top. His play will determine how fast they eliminate Philly and have time to rest for the winner of, what looks like a long Toronto/Orlando series. If he plays as well as he can, the Sixers don’t win another game.

8. Carmelo Anthony & Allen Iverson……….are going to decide how the Nuggets fare against the Lakers. In seven game series’ its usually not the stars that decide the series, but in this case it is. It’s not necessarily anything that will sure show up in the stats columns, because they will both get their stats. But it’s how they do it. If ‘Melo decides to push the issue and go to the rack every single possession, the Lakers have no one who can stop him. If Iverson can get some of the lesser guys, like K-Mart, Camby, and Kleiza involved early, he can get this Dteam rolling. If either of those two don’t happen, the Lakers can take this series easily. But if the both happen, and the Nuggets play just enough defense, they could pull off the upset.

9. David West…………….is actually out-playing Dirk Nowitzki. Everyone is focusing on Chris Paul and his big games, but we knew he’d out-play Kidd. But the key to New Orleans’ domination has been West’s domination of Nowitzki, which makes absolutely no sense. There is no way West should be able to defend Dirk or muscle him around in the high post. But he is. And that’s why this series could end really soon, if Dirk doesn’t get motivated quick. But the Hornets won two games at home, if they win game 3 in Dallas, it’s pretty much done. But if Dallas can pull game 3, they can comeback.

10. Carl Landry & Rafer Alston…………are the keys to the Rockets. In my estimation they are the team’s fifth and third best players. T-Mac is the main guy, Shane Battier is the all-world defender, and Scola does a lot for the team as well. But these two are the wild cards. Alston’s presence allows T-Mac room to move. He also keeps the ball-handling pressure off of Tracy. And he’s the one guy who’s not afraid to yell at McGrady. Both of these players carry a certain swagger that has missed most of the past Rockets teams. The Rockets are extremely streaky. They are just as capable of losing the first four, or winning 16 straight. They are a difficult bunch to figure out. But when Alston and Landry are on, they can beat anyone.

11. Shane Battier………..needs to guard Deron Williams. Why Adelman hasn’t gone to this yet is beyond me, but Williams has been by far, the best player in the series. Wouldn’t it make sense for the best perimeter defender in the league to guard the series’ best perimeter player?

12. Phoenix/San Antonio……………..is completely confusing. To me, the keys to the series are the Spurs’ secondary players and Phoenix’s Grant Hill/Gordon Giricek/Boris Diaw trio. Whichever of the two groups produces, will win this series. But this series is really a toss-up anyway. I underestimated the fact that the Suns couldn’t guard Parker. At this point, I really have no idea who wins this series.

 

“Well It’s Time…”

So baseball is back, but there’s still another 150-games or so. College Basketball is done. Football has its’ draft day, then they’re silent until October. And hockey’s fanbase is non-existent these days anyway. So basically, all eyes are on the NBA playoffs. For all intensive purposes, they kicked off last night with the Warriors being essentially eliminated by the Nuggets. So this is a quick look at all the playoff teams….

Starting today with the East;

1. Boston Celtics, 62-16 (Remaining Games: MIL, @ATL, @ NYK, NJN)

“Hey KG, We got the best record in the East!”
While they’ve had the best record in the league locked up for a while, the game in Atlanta could still prove meaningful. First, Atlanta is yet to clinch the 8th seed with Indiana 2 games back with 4 to play. Second, if standings hold they’ll get the Hawks in the first round. Also it will be interesting to see if Doc Rivers plays his starts the rest of the way like he did in Washington. He says that last year’s Mavs/Warriors upset has led him to take a different stance on his playoff proceedings. That’s all well and nice, but you have an old veteran team. Sam Cassell, Rajon Rondo, and Glenn Davis are all nicked up up, and it would be good to rest at least those guys. The problem with that is, they’d have no point guard. Nevertheless, they should make easy work of Atlanta in the first round. But they will have trouble with either team they get in the second round (assuming seedings hold). Currently its Cleveland vs. Washington, but Philly could catch either of them and Toronto could catch Washington. Washington is particularly scary for Boston, as the Celts have trouble with the Wiz’ combination of DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler guarding the wings. Plus Jamison draws KG out of the post, and Rajon doesn’t have a shot at guarding Arenas.

2. Detroit Pistons, 55-23 (Remaining Games: WAS, TOR, MIN, @ CLE)

The Pistons have been locked into the second seed for quite a while as well. However the Western top teams have caught them, and they could lose potential home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get that far. They are currently tied with top seed New Orleans, but the top 6 teams in the West could all still catch them. And they play three playoff teams the rest of the way. Fortunately three of them are at home. Plus I think it makes for a nice tune-up to end the regular season. I think they go 2-2, falling to both Washington and Cleveland, before destroying Toronto in the first round.

3. Orlando Magic, 49-29 (Remaining Games: MIN, @ CHI, @ ATL, WAS)

The Magic are in a strange position. They cannot move up or down in the standings, and every Western team except Denver is ahead of them. They’ve also been relatively cold going 4-5 in their last nine games. It looks like they will get either Philly or Washington in the first round, and both of those teams are hot. Their best case scenario would be for Toronto to move up and they’d get them. But even that would be no gimme, as Bosh creates problems for Howard in the post, and the Magic have problems guarding either Toronto point guard. But they should end the season 3-1, only falling to the Wizz, and head into a first round matchup against Philly as a favorite.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers, 43-35 (Remaining Games: @ CHI, MIA, @PHI, DET)

“You, your not as good as the King”
The Cavs are a very mediocre 8-9 in their last 17, and seem to be limping into the playoffs. They could very easily get caught by Washington and/or Philadelphia. Despite the overwhelming feeling that they are a top 3 team in the east, they are one of the most vulnerable teams heading into the playoffs. Luckily, they get Chicago and Miami next. Then a real test in Philly, before closing the season hosting a Detroit team that will probably rest most of their stars. With those two creampuff games on their schedule, Philly has no chance to catch them and Washington would have to run the table to tie. I think they get Washington in the first round either way.

5. Washington Wizards, 41-37 (Remaining Games: @DET, PHI, IND, @ORL)

I think these guys are playing their best ball of the year. I like them to run the table, and be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’ll still get their nemesis Cavs in the first round. This will be the best first round series in the East by far. There will be a ton of storylines, from Gilbert’s return to the Lebron/DeShawn Stevenson issues.

6. Philadelphia 76ers, 40-38 (Remaining Games: IND, @WAS, CLE, @CHA)

Iguodala likes to sneak up on people and (Teddy Riley Voice) “Jam!”
What is interesting is that the 4, 5, & 6-seeds will all prove their worth over the last four games of the season. Two games are of note, and both involve the Sixers. They go to Washington on Saturday, and host Cleveland on Monday. They should win their other two games. I think they lose in Washington, then come back and beat Cleveland. But they don’t move in the standings. The good news? That matches them up with the slumping Orlando Magic in the first round.

7. Toronto Raptors, 39-39 (Remaining Games: NJN, @DET, MIA, @CHI)

If they win outright, they could catch Philly. But i think they go 2-2. They would really like to move up to the sixth seed to avoid Detroit in the first round. They can beat Orlando, they have no chance against Detroit. These guys are the coldest playoff team in the East going in. They’ve won only 7 of their last 22. Another first round oust, and they are going to need some re-modeling going forward.

8. Atlanta Hawks, 36-42 (Remaining Games: @NY, BOS, ORL, @MIA)
They are not likely to catch Toronto, but with their schedule, it doesn’t seem as if Indy can catch them either. So they will probably make the playoffs, only to be destroyed by Boston in the first round. Good times!

Eastern Conference Awards

MVP
3. Chauncey Billups, DET
2. LeBron James, CLE
1. Paul Pierce, BOS
The most overlooked of potential MVP candidates, Pierce has been Boston’s MVP this year. Garnett and Allen have been great additions, but when they got hurt Pierce continued to do what he does best: keep the Celts fighting. James has put up spectacular numbers, but the Cavs would not even make the playoffs in the West.


Any Superstar who still looks for hoodrats is allright by us

Defensive Player Of The Year
3. Tayshaun Prince, DET
2. Rasheed Wallace, DET
1. Kevin Garnett, BOS
This is no surprise to anyone who has paid attention. KG’s arrival made Pierce play D, made Rondo’s D even better, and made the Celtics become the best Defensive team in the league. The two Detroit-ers come in second and third, as Detroit was the second best Defensive team in the league.

She’s just with KG cuz i picked him for DPOY!

Most Improved Player
3. Rajon Rondo, BOS
2. Dwight Howard, ORL
1. Caron Butler, WAS
Butler jumps in here to keep it from giving Boston a clean sweep so far. Howard would have been the pick for most of the year, but he has tailed off dramatically of late. Rondo had quite a stellar year in the shadows of the Big 3, and actually (in my opinion) contributed more to the team than Ray Allen (on the court at least). But Butler is the pick here for keeping the Wizz afloat all season without Gilbert. He’s a borderline superstar now, after living in the shadows of Kobe, Wade, and Gil. And this team is VERY scary heading into the playoffs.

Caron’s so dedicated, he even walks his daughter with his jersey on!

Coach Of The Year
3. Stan Van Gundy
2. Mo Cheeks
1. Eddie Jordan
Van Gundy and Cheeks did a lot to move their teams forward, but Jordan’s job was to keep the team afloat. The fact that they have the fifth playoff spot with almost no contribution from the team’s superstar is amazing. But the credit falls between Jordan, and his two secondary stars, Butler and Antawn Jamison. Jordan started the season on the hot seat, but finished leaving many coaches in awe of the job he’s done.
Eddie shows us his biceps

Rookie Of The Year
3. Joaquim Noah, CHI
2. Thaddeus Young, PHI
1. Al Horford
Al is probably going to finish second in the actual rookie of the year voting to Seattle’s Kevin Durant, but he has had just as good a year. This is especially to consider that he’s playing out of position at Center! When he gets to his natural PF position, he will dominate.

It isn’t Al’s ears that make him fly

Playoff Predictions
Round 1:
1. Boston vs. 8. Atlanta
Boston throws a lineup of PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, PF Kevin Garnett, and C Kedrick Perkins against Atlanta’s PG Mike Bibby, SG Joe Johnson, SF Marvin Williams, PF Josh Smith, and C Al Horford. The benches both look solid with Boston throwing out G/F James Posey, G Tony Allen, F PJ Brown, and some combination of G Eddie House/PG Sam Cassell. Atlanta counters with G/F Josh Childress (a sleeper sixth man of the year candidate), C ZaZa Pachulia, and G Salim Stoudemire. I’d actually call the bench even. Boston, however, has better coaching. We’ll call both guard positions a push, with Boston having the edge at SF and PF. We’ll give Atlanta a slight edge at C. Actually, i do not think this series will be as close as it may seem. Atlanta is not as good as they look on paper, and Boston is better than they look on paper. I like Boston in a clean sweep.

2. Detroit vs. 7. Toronto

Chauncey knows what seed he is
The point guard position is one to watch. Detroit throws Chauncey Billups, who was the second best in the league this year, against Toronto’s Jose Calderon/TJ Ford combination (the best combo in the league). However, Detroit has the advantage at every other position: SG Rip Hamilton over Anthony Parker, SF Tayshaun Prince over Jamario Moon, PF Rasheed Wallace over Chris Bosh (though that one could be a push ’em), C Antonio McDyess over Rasho Nesterovic/Andrea Bargnani, and Detroit has a deep and loaded bench with F/C Jason Maxiell, G/Fs Arron Afflalo and Jarvis Hayes, Gs Rodney Stuckey and Juan Dixon, F Amir Johnson, and C Theo Ratliff. Toronto throws out Calderon, Bargnani, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono. A nice bench, but not quite what Detroit has. I like Detroit in 5.

3. Orlando vs. 6. Philadelphia

Here is where things get interesting. This is a very close matchup. At the point, Philly’s Andre Miller destroys Jameer Nelson. At the 2, Willie Green and Mo Evans is a push. Philly throws Dre Iguodala against Orlando’s Hedo Turkoglu, in another push at the three. The Sixers start Reggie Evans at the four, but really Thaddeus Young gets most of the minutes. And I’m going to call him Young vs. Rashard Lewis a push as well, in a matchup of fours that are really threes. Dwight Howard beats Sam dalembert in the middle, but its’ closer than you think. Dalembert will make him work for his points, and it may take away from Howard’s defensive efficiency. And on top of that, I like Philly’s bench of Evans, Louis Williams, and Jason Smith more than Orlando’s bench of Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling (so the Magic have 3 points that can’t guard Miller or Williams), Keith Bogans (no shot against Iguodala), and Adonal Foyle. I am going to take Philly in six.

4. Cleveland vs. 5. Washington

Gil’s hoping to chop down Cleveland
The seeds might flip-flop, but whatever. Cleveland has ended Washington’s season two years in a row. But this time Washington’s more loaded than ever despite their low seed. I like the Gilbert/Antonio Daniels combo way more than Cleveland’s Delonte West/Boobie Gibson combo. I’ll also take DeShawn Stevenson/Nick Young over Cleveland’s Devin Brown/Wally Szerbiak combo. We’ll give the Cavs LeBron vs. Caron Butler, in the series’ premier matchup (though Stevenson will spend the most time on LeBron, but even if you switch Stevenson and Butler, the advantages are the same). The Cavs will throw some combination of Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, and Zydrunas Ilguaskas in the post positions. The first two are defensive minded low post players, with the latter two stretching the defense with their jumpshots. None of them can guard Washington’s PF Antawn Jamison. The Wizz will also throw Brendan Haywood (who is having the season of his life, so long as he doesn’t have to guard LeBron), Darius Songalia (another shooter to stretch the defense, we’ll call him the Euro-Jamison), and Andray Blatche (the team’s future in the middle, we’ll call him the black Andris Biedrins). I’d be inclined to give the Wizz the slight edge here as well. We’ll call the benches even and the coaches even. But I’m going to say, the only advantage the Cavs have is LeBron. If Caron Butler can make LeBron pay on the defensive end, it’s going to be more one-sided than anyone would think. I’m going to go with Washington in six. I think if it goes seven, the Cavs win.

Second Round

1. Boston vs. 5. Washington

For matchup reasons, Boston just hasn’t been able to beat Washington this year. The Wizz are 3-1, with the only loss featuring an obviously physically beat Gilbert shooting 5-20, while the other Wizz just stood around and watched. This is a much different Wiz team with Gil in a supporting role to Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. A Washington team without Gil beat the Celts on consecutive nights in January, and beat them by 14 the other night with Gil. Boston is not going to go out without a fight, but I’m taking Washington to surprise everyone and make their first Conference Finals appearance since 1979. I got the Wizz in 7.

2. Detroit vs. 6. Philadelphia

Detroit’s second teamers just lost a game to Philly, but don’t be fooled. They are still a class above the Sixers. I think Detroit wins this pretty easily, as Detroit is better than Philly at every position. Even Philly’s two best players (Andre Miller and Andre Igoudala) will matchup with two better players in Detroit (Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince). I like Detroit in 5.

The Eastern Conference Finals: 2. Detroit Vs. 5. Washington

I think the Wizz will give ’em a run. I like Chauncey over the Gil/Daniels combination. But really, Chauncey’s playing better than any point not named Chris Paul. And I’d probably even call that one a draw. From there, I like Rip over Stevenson, but Butler over Prince. We’ll call Sheed/Jamison a push, but give McDyess the edge over Haywood. We’ll also give Detroit’s bench the edge. But never count out Butler. Tough Juice is the heart and soul of this team, and he’ll keep fighting until the last buzzer. But in the end, Detroit rises again, 4-2.

Someone Tell Mrs. Sheed she doesn’t get a belt for winning the East

The Western Conference Tomorrow!